MOGGA: Make Our Giants Great Again

 

Final National League West Standings

                W L GB

Los Angeles 98 64 Ohtani finally in the postseason
San Diego 93 69 5 Host Braves in wild-card series
Arizona         89 73 9 Eliminated on Monday
GIANTS         80 82 18 There'll be some changes made
Colorado  61 101 47 Some things never change

Monday's small earthquake, whose epicenter was just northeast of Third and King Streets, has pretty much overshadowed the usual ruminations and recriminations following an unsuccessful Giants season.  Farhan Zaidi is out, and astonishingly (at least to us), the great Buster Posey has stepped into the role as president of baseball operations. Buster has been periodically visible over the past few years since his retirement, identifying himself with the team, the City, and the ownership group. "He doesn't want the job," was the most common opinion on social media, but that changed two weeks ago when it was learned (leaked?) that he had a hand in negotiating the final conditions of Matt Chapman's six-year deal. Whether or not that was done to subtly undercut Farhan's standing, that's what it accomplished, and in the wake of all this (not to mention the wake of three straight losing seasons), the decision now looks inevitable. With that said, Buster Posey's unmatched Giants pedigree and credibility bring a warm and reassuring sense of optimism to all things Giant at the moment. 

Farhan Zaidi's legacy is, of course, uneven, with one phenomenal and historic season balanced against three mediocre ones. He'll be forever linked with manager Gabe Kapler, whose record is similar-- brief but unsustainable success. Zaidi took over in 2019, and being a Canadian, an outsider, a former Dodger executive, and a "stats geek," he was an easy target for unhappy fans. The most unfair and unwarranted claim was that he somehow "pushed out" or "forced out" Bruce Bochy as manager, which is an easily disproven lie. "Boch" at the time was 65, he'd been managing non-stop for 25 years, the Giants had lost 272 games his last three seasons, and he wanted, he needed, to take a break. He took three years off, after all; he could have had his pick of managerial jobs immediately otherwise.   

Farhan made two exceptionally good player decisions. Trading for Mike Yastrzemski was an all-timer, giving up no value for two superb seasons and four solid years. The midseason trade for Kris Bryant was an immediate success; it's unlikely the Giants would have won 107 games and the division without him. And letting Bryant go elsewhere afterward has also proven a wise decision. He found value in pitchers like Kevin Gausman, Carlos Rodon, and Tyler Anderson without breaking the bank.  But the "bargain bin hunting" approach did not yield success over the last three years, and of the "big" free agents signed last offseason, only Chapman and (probably) Robbie Ray are certain to stay. Jorge Soler is already gone (Zaidi should get some credit for swiftly recognizing that necessity) and Blake Snell's status is up in the air.

In the end, that great 2021 season was fueled by outstanding seasons from five players: Brandon Crawford, Buster Posey, Brandon Belt, Logan Webb, and Kevin Gausman. Three of the five were established stars before Farhan arrived, and those three had their last great season that year. None of them have been replaced, at least not yet, and only Webb-- drafted by Brian Sabean-- remains.     

Do the Giants, based on what we saw in the second half of the season, have the core of a contending team? Teams that finish the season strong tend to do well the next season; the Giants were 33-32 after the break, which is hardly "strong." September has not been kind to the Giants lately, and this year was true to form: they were 11-13 down the stretch. The best news the team received in the second half was breakout performances by Blake Snell and Robbie Ray. Snell put up 13 quality starts, most of them high-quality, out of 14 overall. Ray made seven starts before being shut down; five of them were excellent. Heliot Ramos, who made the All-Star Game, and Tyler Fitzgerald showed they're real players, along with Patrick Bailey, who did so a year ago.  The other youngsters-- Grant McCray, Brett Wisely, Jerar Encarnacion, and possibly Casey Schmitt, remain in the "hopeful" category, which has a quick expiration date.  Jung Hoo Lee, whose early injury seemed to cast a pall over the Giants' whole season, will return in 2025 to give the Giants two-thirds of a fine outfield. Matt Chapman is as good a third baseman as there is in baseball. So left, center, catcher, third base, and shortstop are settled. That leaves three spots, four if we count the DH. Soler wasn't the guy, but a real power threat at DH or first base would really help this group.  As would a starting first baseman and second baseman. 

If the Giants can offer Snell enough money and perks to stay ("I like it here," he said last week), it looks like a strong rotation with Webb, young Kyle Harrison, and a healthy Ray. Out of Hayden Birdsong, Mason Black, Keaton Winn, Tristan Beck, Landon Roupp, and the mercurial Jordan Hicks, we can hope at least one young starter will emerge.  Without Snell, or a quality replacement (Jordan Montgomery?), we're back to a guessing game.  And we expect wholesale changes in the bullpen; no one there is indispensable, though Ryan Walker and Tyler Rogers are the most likely to stay and Camilo Doval is arbitration-eligible. 

  

The Giants didn't have a lot of team outliers this year, though they were 18-9 in the increasingly rare category of "pitchers' duels."  Wednesdays and Fridays were their best days of the week, and Tuesdays by far the worst.  They did a little better in the daytime (33-30) than at night (47-52). They were 16-17 in Logan Webb's 33 starts, 14-10 in Kyle Harrison's, and 14-6 in Snell's.  Young Hayden Birdsong generally pitched well, but the Giants lost 10 of his 16 decisions.  Keaton Winn (3-9) suffered from atrocious run support (2.6), while the team scored a robust 5.5 per start for Harrison. Jordan Hicks (8-12), who started off so well some were touting him as an All-Star, got average support. As near as we can tell, he just  ran out of gas in late June; the Giants lost his last five starts.  The team was 7-5 when using "openers," mostly Erik Miller; the last of those was on July 28, a day game after the Giants' lone doubleheader.  

Quality starts: Webb 22, Snell 13, Hicks, Harrison, and Birdsong 10. Snell's average Game Score was 60, remarkable considering his lousy start (over his last three months he averaged 71).  Webb averaged 55, Ray 54 (in seven starts), Birdsong 51, Harrison 50, and Hicks 50. Those last three are fine numbers for rookies pitching in the major leagues; hope springs eternal in the human arm. 

Cheap wins (another endangered species): Hicks, Webb, Harrison. Tough losses: Webb 2, Winn 2, Birdsong 2, Black, Roupp. 

Best start: Snell's no-hitter on August 2 in Cincinnati, of course (Game Score 95). Worst: Daulton Jefferies' only start, at San Diego in the season's fourth game (11). Six weeks later he was traded to Pittsburgh. Worst start from a regular pitcher was Birdsong in Washington, four days after Snell's gem: Game Score 13.  Atlanta's Chris Sale, who may miss the playoffs, had the best start against the Giants, a 83 on August 12 at Oracle Park. He didn't get the decision but the Braves won in 10. It was the pitchers' duel of the year, as Snell put up a 77 in opposition.  And on the 23rd anniversary of the cowardly attack on America, also at Oracle, Colin Rea of Milwaukee was clobbered by the Giants and posted a big fat zero for this efforts. It didn't slow down the Brewers much.  The worst combined start by both pitchers was 53 on August 6 in Washington. Birdsong put up a 16 and the Nationals' McKenzie Gore got the win with a 37.  And the biggest starting pitcher mismatch was Rea's aforementioned meltdown, because Snell had him 61-0 that day.

No Giant (we seem to say this every year) was near the top in any kind of offensive category; only Chapman and Ramos had enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title. They tied for 33rd with a .791 OPS. The team leader was Tyler Fitzgerald at .831, good enough for 23rd if he qualified. LaMonte Wade's .380 OBP led the team, down from last year. He's a "tweener"-- good enough to play, not good enough to start regularly.   The left side of the Giants' infield-- Chapman and Fitzgerald-- was a combined 32 of 38 stealing bases.  If you are a fan of WAR, Chapman posted a 7.1, MVP level, and much of that on defense. This year he rates as the best third baseman in the game by both WAR and WAA. 

Logan Webb, as usual, was among the leaders in innings pitched and starts, and faced more batters than anyone, but he was down to 27th in strikeouts and 39th in WHIP.  He had six bad (GS below 40) starts this year, which is unlike him. As the hardest-working pitcher in the game, he needs to be sensitive to wear and tear, although the bad starts did not cluster at season's end.  Blake Snell didn't pitch enough innings to qualify, but his 1.05 WHIP is sensational, considering how the season began for him, and would rate 8th in MLB.  Camilo Doval had 23 saves before his fall from grace, still good enough for 14th overall.  Ryan Walker, who took over the closer role, had 10. 

As a team the Giants were 17th in MLB in runs, 16th in homers, 14th in walks, 21st in OBP, 19th in OPS.  On the pitching side, 19th in ERA, 16th in runs allowed, 22nd in WHIP.   They gave up 46 unearned runs, which is pretty good by comparison; most teams are in the 60s.  

In BBRef's wonderful "Wins Above Average By Position," the Giants' pitchers rank 20th, with the bullpen slightly ahead of the starters.  Their best position by far is third base, of course, and their worst second base, where they rank 28th, about even with the 121-loss White Sox, at minus-two.  Overall the Giants rank almost three wins below average, which is 78; they won 80. We knew they hired Bob Melvin for a reason, right?

Roll the statistical parade 

The Chicago White Sox, having set the modern record for losses, head up all sorts of interesting statistical categories, all of 'em bad. They scored only 507 runs, nearly 100 less than any other team. Average, OBP, slugging, all at the bottom. They only hit 9 triples. They did steal 90 bases, more than seven other teams including the Yankees, Tigers, and of course the Giants, though they did so at a lower success rate. On the pitching side, they had a better ERA than Miami or the Rockies, though that's not adjusted for park effects. They allowed 75 unearned runs and 201 homers.  The "WAA" stat compiler look like it might not be able to handle extremes; it has the Chisox at 26 wins below average, which is 55 wins, or 14 more than they won. They're dead last in position players, but surprisingly almost normal in pitching. Worst lineup and outfield in the game...  The Los Angeles Dodgers' recent pitching woes continue. Team ERA 3.90, 13th among all teams. They gave up 198 homers, walked 501 batters, and dropped way down in strikeouts. But their team OPS is .781, better than everyone, and there's your 98 wins...  You want pitching? Go to Seattle. The Mariners only walked 369, their team ERA is tied with Atlanta for the best, and they just missed the playoffs... Arizona scored a MLB-leading 886 runs, 200 more runs than Detroit, but which team made it to the postseason?...  The Yankees homer a lot (1st), walk a lot (1st), but don't strike out much (20th). And despite all the long balls, only three teams hit the ball on the ground more often than they do, which may explain why they also ground into the most double plays...  The Washington Nationals may lead the majors in stolen bases, but the Milwaukee Brewers are much better at it (217/259 versus 223/296). Yes, "caught stealing," the old double negative, is still an important and often obscured stat...  Shohei Ohtani, the first 50/50 man in history, is also the best base stealer in the game, with 59 steals and only 4 caught. Cincinnati's Elly De La Cruz had 8 more steals, but was caught 12 more times. No comparison... With Ohtani and the stupendous Aaron Judge the two best players in baseball this year, is a Yankees/Dodgers World Series showdown inevitable? Not at all, in a wide-open and lengthy postseason, but it would be historic... How good does Judge have to be to be better than Juan Soto? 41 homers, 109 RBI, 128 runs, .988 OPS, and of course 129 walks against 119 strikeouts. Yet Judge has him beat in each category except runs, though the big fella did strike out 177 times... OK, so who else qualifies for our fa-vo-rite stat? Just two guys--  Cleveland's Steven Kwan  (53 BB, 51 K) and Mookie Betts (61-57)... Where's Jose Ramirez? Right here-- 41 homers, 114 runs, 118 RBI, 41 steals, only 7 caught, and waiting to see whom the Indians meet in the next round. More power to him...  Anthony Rizzo used to lead the majors in being hit by the pitch every year. Now it's not so cute-- he took a pitch off his hand last week, fractured two fingers, and may not play in the postseason. And nobody put up large numbers in that stat this year... The two MVP awards are already sewed up, but we have a plethora of Cy Young candidates in both leagues. Chris Sale is an obvious front-runner, but Detroit's Tarik Skubal is right there. They are 1-2 in wins, ERA, and strikeouts, and each might win the prize in his respective league... Skubal also has a 0.92 WHIP, just ahead of our old friend Zack Wheeler. Another former Giant, Carlos Rodon, is in the mix, and Seth Lugo, who pitched a great game against Blake Snell just a week or so ago, is right there, too... Another former short-term Giant, Tyler Anderson, led everyone with 73 walks, but in 179 innings that's not bad. Toronto's Chris Bassitt just nosed him out for highest walk rate per 9 innings...Lookin' for outliers-- wild pitches, pickoffs, balks-- and not getting any silly numbers this time around... Too much normality!

OK, right now Detroit just took a 5-2 lead over Houston in the eighth at Minute Maid. A lot of these wild-card series seem to be over in two games, and the Tigers, having won yesterday, are in position to give the 'Stros their earliest exit from the postseason since they started dominating it in 2017. And the Kansas City Royals, one game up on Baltimore already, have a 1-0 early lead at Camden Yards.  The Mets and Padres are likewise positioned to eliminate the Brewers and Braves later this evening. For us, we'd like to see Milwaukee advance, but all the 2024 postseason teams look to be as evenly balanced as any time in recent memory.

"Playoffs? Whattaya talkin' about? Playoffs?!?"

 A few bits 'n' bytes as we wind down a long and not-altogether-fruitless season by the Bay...

Since being eliminated from the "Playoffs?!?", the Giants have won five straight games and looked positively unbeatable doing it, outscoring two "playoff" -bound teams by 30-4 and putting a major hurt on each one. Both the Kansas City Royals and Arizona Diamondbacks, who appeared certain to reach the postseason (that's better, right?) are now clinging desperately to the last wild-card spot in their respective leagues, having been passed by the Detroit Tigers and New York Mets. They may still make it, but they sure won't give any thanks to the San Francisco Giants.  

Last night's 11-0 blowout of Arizona-- on their home field, yet-- left the Giants at plus-7 in runs scored/runs allowed . It's the first time they've been on the positive side since-- wait for it-- March 30, the third game of the season, when they were plus-6. A long time coming. And at 79-79, they're at .500 for the first time in a solid month. 

Logan Webb, who won his 13th game yesterday as his teammates blasted five home runs, is the hardest-working man in baseball. Webb has started more games, faced more batters, thrown more pitches, and completed more innings (well, he's tied with the Royals' Seth Lugo there) than any pitcher in the major leagues.  

The only remaining pennant race is right here in the NL West.  The San Diego Padres have won 9 of their last 10, gained 3 games on the LA Dodgers, and trail by only two with four games left. They just beat LA in Dodger Stadium last night and have two more shots to even the race before the final weekend. If they Padres keep winning, they can possibly blow the Diamondbacks right out of the postseason by Sunday, and they may need to because the Dodgers finish at woeful Colorado. Yes, there's some excitement left in the season.   

The wild-card derby is more of an enduro than a real race. The Mets, the Diamondbacks, and the mystifying Atlanta Braves (who should have already clinched it; they're three games behind their Pythagorean expectation) are scrambling for the two remaining NL spots not taken by LA and San Diego.  In the American League, Baltimore is in, with the Tigers and Royals just ahead of Minnesota, Seattle, and longshot Boston. The upcoming final weekend promises to be nutso: in addition to the San Diego-Arizona tiff, the Braves and Royals close out the season in Atlanta, a series guaranteed to hurt somebody real bad.   Watch out for the Braves and their pitching if they do get in.

As for the Giants and their new-found successmobile, they wrap up in Arizona tonight, then finish the season at home against the St Louis Cardinals, a team that, like the Giants, saw their postseason hopes fade away earlier this month.

 

 

The San Francisco Giants Open the 2024 Season!

 

Pitchers

Logan Webb, R, 27   Giants’ ace says spring numbers don’t matter

Blake Snell, L, 31     2-time Cy Young winner SF coveted all offseason

Kyle Harrison, L, 22   Rookie with electric but wild stuff  

Jordan Hicks, R, 27    Will his 100-MPH heat work in rotation?

Keaton Winn, R, 26   Giants’ fifth starter position is far from settled

Camilo Doval, R, 26   Now a veteran coming off 39-save season  

Tyler Rogers, R, 33   Submariner has been with Giants for 5 years

Taylor Rogers, L, 33  Tyler’s twin SF's lefty reliever of choice

Luke Jackson, R, 32   Always need a long man in the bullpen

Ryan Walker , R, 28   Hope Giants don’t revert to “opener” tactic  

Landen Roupp, R, 25   May have best curve ball in camp

Erik Miller, L, 26   Rogers not the only left-hander in bullpen

Alex Cobb, R, 36 (IL)  Could rejoin rotation before the month is out

Sean Hjelle, R, 27 (IL)  Still waiting for him to show big-league stuff

Robbie Ray, L, 32 (IL)  Coming off TJS, won't compete until July

Tristan Beck, R, 27 (IL)   'Aneurysm’ is a scary term for anybody

 
 Position Players

Jung-Hoo Lee, OF, 25  Korean star brings OBP, speed, and defense  

Matt Chapman, 3B, 31  Was last season at plate just an aberration?

Jorge Soler, OF-DH, 32  Coming off big season with big expectations

 Patrick Bailey, C, 25  Has settled in behind plate as if he owns it

Thairo Estrada, 2B, 27   Will we see more than just a hot start in '24?

Michael Conforto, OF, 30   No one on club has more to prove than he

LaMonte Wade jr, 1B, 29  Just keep getting on base, big fella

Wilmer Flores, UT, 31  Still the team’s “go-to” guy until further notice

Nick Ahmed, SS, 34   "Dumpster dive” pickup has fine spring with bat

Mike Yastrzemski, OF, 32   Still a fan fave, but  numbers don’t lie     

Austin Slater, OF, 30   Still a personal fave, but injuries take toll      

Tyler Fitzgerald, UT, 26   Can hit, run, and play multiple positions

Tom Murphy, C, 33    Melvin likes experienced backup catchers

Joey Bart, C, 27    Had a fine spring, and Melvin likes catchers

Luis Matos, OF, 22    Here’s hoping he’s the starting RF by summer

Marco Luciano, SS, 22   Ahmed’s here because this kid hasn’t hit yet

Gotta Catch 'Em All

 That won't be especially hard this year.  Yes, we've updated our "Greatest Players in San Francisco Giants History" page over on the right hand side there, and it didn't take long.

For the first time since we began this entertaining but pointless exercise, there are no current Giants on the list. Brandon Crawford bows out as the top shortstop in San Francisco history, and as the seventh-greatest San Francisco Giant of all time. Get that big "35" up on the Wall of Fame posthaste.

Of the current Giants, only Logan Webb materially improved his standing in 2023, with 15 Win Shares and leading the league in innings pitched. He now has 60 total points, just ahead of Mike Krukow and Rick Reuschel, and just behind Big Ed Halicki. 

Only two of the new Giants, Patrick Bailey and Blake Sabol, even made it to the qualifying list. Between them they put up 25 Win Shares in 2023, and we really hope that the signing of backup catcher Tom Murphy doesn't mean Sabol relegated to the minors. For reasons we're not yet able to explain, the team plays better when he's on it. 

As for Jung-hoo Lee, well, let's see what happens, but are we optimistic? Indeed we are. He's exactly the type of player this team has needed in the lineup and in the field. Now, how about going out and getting at least one starting ace to complement our man Webb?

                                   

Final National League West Division Standings

                            W        L     GB                                                     

Los Angeles        100    62            Braves are better, but not by much

Arizona                 84    78     16     Still don't see them as legit contenders

San Diego             82    80     18    Ended lost season with winning record

GIANTS               79     83     21     Kapler pays the price for collapse

Colorado               59   103    41    Is there any hope here?

 

We're not going to speculate about the next Giants manager. Maria Guardado has a long list of potential candidates here: https://www.mlb.com/giants/news/possible-options-for-giants-manager-position

We are going to note that the greatest shortstop in San Francisco Giants history bid farewell to the fans yesterday, in the season finale attended by almost 39,000 people. Brandon Crawford took the field at short to open the game as the cheers rolled across the ballpark. He batted leadoff, a class move by interim manager Kai Correa, and received another ovation in the bottom of the first.  In the ninth, Marco Luciano trotted out to relieve Crawford at short, and the Bay Area boy who once dreamed of playing for the Giants one day took his last bow on this, his last day, closing out a memorable career. There's fine video of it all on the team website. In his characteristic low-key, no-BS manner, Crawford thanked the fans, his teammates, and the Giants organization for a career and an indelible style of play that marks him as one of the greats. The Wall of Fame is sure be graced by a "35" not long from now.  

Brandon Crawford walks away with class and dignity from a team that is likely to see many more departures this offseason. The only reason there might not be a wholesale exodus of veterans is that curse visited upon the game by the MLBPA, arbitration. More than anything else, arbitration encourages, if not guarantees, friction and animosity between player and team as each assembles dossiers to prove why the other is shortsighted, clueless, and wrong. Many players thus sign early to avoid the process altogether. Mike Yastrzemski, Austin Slater, Thairo Estrada, J.D. Davis, LaMonte Wade, and Tyler Rogers are all arbitration-eligible this year. What does a rebuilding team do in this situation? Some of these guys, we expect, still have team value going forward, but at what cost? None deserve a long-term contract. 

The only Giants player whom we are certain has a full-time position in the field for 2024 is Patrick Bailey. Every other position is up for grabs.  We could see Casey Schmitt at third, Marco Luciano at short, and Luis Matos, Wade Meckler, and Tyler Fitzgerald in the outfield, with Blake Sabol always around somewhere. Kyle Harrison and Tristan Beck may well join Logan Webb in the starting rotation. Of the veterans, we see Estrada, Wade, Davis, and Wilmer Flores as regulars and semi-regulars, including the DH. Flores and Wade as a platoon at first base might make sense. 

Extended contracts the 2024 Giants will carry include those of Michael Conforto, Mitch Haniger, and Anthony DeSclafani, the last of which the team may have to consider an unrecoverable sunken cost. Conforto will almost certainly exercise his option to stay; nobody will offer him $18 million based on this season. Both he and Haniger have the capability to bring real value if limited to about 100 games each, which will give ample playing time to the youngsters. Speaking of youngsters, the one Giant certain to get a fat raise is Camilo Doval, who led the NL in saves, nailing down his 39th on Saturday. (39 is just about half of the Giants' total wins.) He's currently making $735,000 on a contract that expires in a month. . 

And the Giants certainly will pursue Shohei Ohtani, even given his injury situation, and they will be fighting multiple suitors, especially the Dodgers. Cody Bellinger, after his huge bounce-back season with the Cubs, is only 29 and about to get mega-rich. The Giants will pursue him, too, and may have a better shot than anyone given the focus on Ohtani. Other than these, this year's free-agent market for big bats is pretty thin. Regardless, we believe the Giants' main focus ought to be, indeed must be, on reliable starting pitchers. Yes, Harrison and Beck have promise, and Sean Manaea finished well, but at least one "rotation anchor" is needed, a guy with  proven track record of solid pitching and, perhaps most important, durability. And two would be even better. There are a lot of possibilities. 

Those include Blake Snell, Mike Clevinger, Sonny Gray, Andrew Heaney, Michael Lorenzen, Seth Lugo, Kenta Maeda, Tyler Mahle, Jordan Montgomery, Aaron Nola, Martin Perez, Eduardo Rodriguez, Marcus Stroman, and Michael Wacha.  Vince Velasquez, James Paxton, and Frankie Montas have shown good stuff but are also dogged by repeated injuries, something the Giants have seen to much of already. And the best of the lot, Julio Urias of the Dodgers, is in legal limbo. 

You'd think at least one or two of those guys would be a good fit. With youth predominating in the field, solid veteran pitching is essential. Successful Giants teams have been built around strong starting pitching, a solid bullpen, and league-average offense. Of those three areas, starting pitching was the biggest issue in 2023; does anyone really think Kapler used "openers" and ran the bullpen to exhaustion because he wanted to?   

Well, the Giants scored more runs in 2023 than did the New York Yankees, and that's about it for the good news. Overall the Giants were 24th in MLB with 674 runs, well below the league average. The top five teams are all playoff teams; only the Cubs and Reds among non-playoff teams cracked the top ten. The Miami Marlins, who got hot in the last two weeks, eliminated the Cubs and Reds, and took the second wild-card away from Arizona, scored only 668, less than the Giants. They and the Diamondbacks are the only teams to enter the postseason with negative run differential. The Cubs, especially, must be wondering what happened. They finished 96 runs to the good, better than the division-winning Brewers-- and seven games off their expected record. 

Milwaukee does have the best team ERA in baseball, while the Giants are 11th, better than the Phillies, Dodgers, Braves, and Marlins. You may be wondering why we're on such a rant about improving the pitching if our pitchers are better than most of the big boys. Two things: first, the Giants' pitching was much stronger before the All=Star break than after, and second, eleventh isn't good enough. Until proven otherwise this is a pitching-driven team that needs to be in the top five at least, given the offense will at best come in no better than league average. 

Wins Above Average tells a similar story. The Giants were 22nd overall; ninth in pitching and 25th in the field and at bat.  Their only positive position was first base; their worst was the outfield, combined. Overall they were 8 wins below average, which suggests Kapler brought them in with a few wins better than they deserved.

The only Giant anywhere near the league lead in any offensive category was LaMonte Wade. His .373 OBP was 13th, just behind Adley Rutschmann and just ahead of Christian Yelich. His .790 OPS tied for 56th (with Bryan Reynolds and just ahead of Randy Arozarena). Wade also led the Giants in runs scored; he really did have a good year and deserves a chance to do it again in 2024. Another favorite is Wilmer Flores, whose .864 OPS would have been 13th if he'd had a few more plate appearances. His 23 homers. best on the club, tied for 62nd. Most of his HR peers had many more ABs, although the Cubs' Patrick Wisdom hit 23 in only 268 ABs. (Wisdom also batted .205 with a .289 OBP.) 

As has been noted elsewhere, Logan Webb led all major-league pitchers with 216 innings pitched. His 1.07 WHIP was sixth in MLB; Gerrit Cole, whose Yankees likewise endured a terribly disappointing season, led with a 0.98 (and also finished 15-4). Webb is also tenth in ERA. And he walked only 31 men in his 216 innings; 158 pitchers walked more in fewer. 

Only the Cleveland Guardians' Emmanuel Clase saved more games than Doval's 39.  Doval's ERA, K/9 and WHIP were right in line with the top closers'. 

Roll the Statistical Parade

Ohtani's 1.066 OPS leads the majors, and 44 homers in 497 at-bats is sensational. He will probably win the AL MVP despite finishing the season on the IL. Corey Seager had a huge year for Texas but also missed 40 games. Tampa's Yandy Diaz was great, too, but missed 25 games himself. In the NL, it likely comes down to Freddie Freeman (59 doubles, 131 runs, .410 OBP) and his rival, Atlanta's Ronald Acuna, who was a little better (a MLB-leading 149 runs, .337 average and .416 OBP, 41 homers, 106 RBI). Acuna also plays right field, which may give him the edge. These guys are so good that monsters such as Mookie Betts, Bellinger, Bo Bichette, Bryce Harper, Juan Soto, and Matt Olson (tops with 54 homers) will likely count as also-rans despite their terrific numbers. Watch out for Milwaukee catcher William Contreras and for the overachieving Miami Marlins' Luis Arraez, whose .354 average led MLB.   

Kansas City's Bobby Witt jnr and Arizona's Rookie of the Year shoo-in Corbin Carroll were the only major leaguers to top 10 triples; Ohtani had 8 to go with his 44 homers. And Juan Soto again deserves his own award: 132 walks against 126 strikeouts. Bravo! Kyle Schwarber of the Phillies is the Three-True-Outcome poster boy: 47 homers, 215 strikeouts, 126 walks, a .197 average and .343 OBP. 

Although Acuna led MLB with 73 stolen bases, the champion base-stealers are Carroll, with 54 out of 59, and Washington's good young shortstop, C.J. Abrams (47 of 51). And may we present our old friend Trea Turner, of the playoff-bound Phillies, who swiped 30 without being caught once. He also hit 26 homers and scored 102 runs. He needs to walk more; with that lineup he might score 150 if he doubles his 45 walks. 

Atlanta's Spencer Strider is the majors' only 20-game winner for 2023; he didn't complete a game but that 13.55 K/9 ratio tells the tale. He faced the Giants twice and won both games, allowing one earned run. The Braves won 104 games and two of his teammates had better ERAs, but he led MLB in strikeouts with 281 and we wouldn't be surprised to see him win the Cy Young Award. This is one time where a gaudy win total just might be the indicator. Blake Snell, whom we dearly want to see in a Giants uniform in 2024, led the MLB with a 2.25 ERA while winning 14. His 11.7 K/W is impressive, though he does walk people (99 in 186 IP).  Sonny Gray's another one; 2.79 ERA despite his 8-8 mark and average K ratio, and he doesn't walk people. We'll set time aside to watch him in the playoffs. Gerritt Cole, the Orioles' Kyle Bradish, and the Rays' Zach Eflin are all AL CYA contenders. Justin Verlander quietly had a fine year at age 40, as did Clayton Kershaw at 35, and Toronto's Chris Bassitt, recently freed from the A's and Mets, had a strong year along with our old friend, his teammate Kevin Gausman. Doval and Clase are sure to get some votes, too.

One of our favorites, Tim Anderson, turned 30 this year and celebrated with his first really poor season: a .245 average for this consistent .300 hitter, and since he doesn't walk his OBP was a gruesome .286. He's a free agent with a team option for 2024; at $5 million per year we have to figure the White Sox will go for it, expecting a bounce-back season. We saw him play this past May at the new Comiskey Park, and we wouldn't mind seeing him play 81 games at Oracle Park-- if 2023 was a career aberration and not a new trend. 

Ohtani and Cleveland's perennial stud Jose Ramirez led everyone with 21 and 22 intentional walks. The Reds' Sam Moll, the Angels' Jaime Berria, and our own Camilo Doval issued the most IBBs; the leaders in this category are all relievers. Dylan Cease of the White Sox and the Mets' fine righthander Kodai Senga led everyone with 14 wild pitches; Blake Snell also slung 13 balls to the backstop. Doval had 10 himself, and we remember more than a few of  'em; another reliever with a tendency to wildness was Seattle's Matt Brash. 

Snell was, by measure, the wildest pitcher in baseball (highest BB/IP), but he's in good company at the top with Charlie Morton, Senga, Merrill Kelly of Arizona, and the Phillies' 15-game winner Tajuan Walker. On the other side only George Kirby of Seattle and Zach Eflin had better control ratios than our own Logan Webb. Webb also forced 30 ground-ball double plays to lead MLB; he's the top ground-ball pitcher in the game. Houston's Cristian Javier is his opposite number with three fly balls to every grounder. 

Oakland's J.P. Sears hit 16 batters, more than anyone. We looked for the familiar name of Anthony Rizzo atop the hit-by-the-pitch leaderboard, but then realized he played only 99 games. Our champion is Seattle's Ty France. Modest numbers everywhere else-- but hit by the pitch 34 times! Runner-up Pete Alonso of the Mets had only 21. 

The Toronto Blue Jays must know what they're doing. Matt Chapman, in 581 at-bats, grounded into 4 double plays, and Cavan Biggio, son of Hall-of-Famer Craig Biggio, batted 289 times without grounding into one. Then in Minnesota we have Carlos Correa, pursued by the Giants in the off-season, who grounded into 30, worst in MLB, in the midst of a truly lousy season. All three of these guys are in the playoffs. 

It seems to us the Giants scored a lot of runs on the sacrifice fly this season, and if they sign Cody Bellinger there may be a lot more. He tied with the Dodgers' Will Smith for the lead with 12. 

The Postseason

It all kicks off tomorrow with Game One of the four wild-card series. Milwaukee hosts the Arizona Diamondbacks for three, while the red-hot Marlins are at Philadelphia. In the American League, the Houston Astros took the AL West division away from Bruce Bochy's Texas Rangers on the last day of the season, and thus earned a first-round bye. The Rangers now go Tampa Bay to face the Rays, who lost a spirited battle with the Baltimore Orioles for the AL East title but still finished with the second-best record in the league. The other AL series has Minnesota hosting the Toronto Blue Jays for three. Starting pitchers for all the games have not been announced as of this hour.

All these games will be played on consecutive days, Tuesday through Thursday, with no travel days, as all the series are played exclusively on the higher-seeded team's home field.  We visited Target Field and American Family Field this year and enjoyed both ballparks, particularly Milwaukee's. Of course some of that may be due to the Giants winning three of four in that ballpark during our visit! 

Shockwave

Well, we didn't see that coming. The "Fire Kapler!"chorus that swelled on social media over the last month evidently reached a crescendo among those whom Farhan Zaidi and the Giants' ownership actually listen to, and so the move was made yesterday.  Susan Slusser of the Chronicle opines that the peculiar timing-- three games left to play on the road in a lost season-- may be intended to spare Gabe Kapler from endless speculation and combative press conferences over this weekend. Whatever. It's done.

Kapler can claim he kept a team in contention until the final two weeks while undergoing a rebuild, and there's some truth to that, and it's impressive in its own way. But his overall managerial track record in September, we must say, is not strong, and was the chief point of contention when he was hired. "They booed him out of Philly!" was the complaint. "They boo everybody in and out of Philly," seemed a fair response at the time.  But consider: in his two seasons at the helm of the Phillies, both teams blew potential playoff position down the stretch in a manner eerily similar to the Giants' big fade this year. In 2018 the Phils were 74-66 early in the month; they went 6-16 the rest of the way, losing 9 in a row in the final two weeks. The 2019 cave-in wasn't as dramatic, as the team was only three or four games above the waterline most of the year, but again they lost six in a row and 11 of 16 as the season closed out.

What makes this pill hard to swallow is, of course, 2021. It wasn't just that the Giants won a franchise-record 107 games and beat out what may have been the most powerful of the LA Dodgers' teams this decade. It was also the uncanny way Kapler won matchup after matchup in tight games-- his amazing success with pinch-hitters, the best in baseball, his ability to get the most out of journeyman relievers and to find the hot hand out of the bullpen. Of course he got MVP-quality seasons out of Brandon Crawford, Buster Posey, Brandon Belt (in 97 games), and Kevin Gausman, and fine seasons out of Evan Longoria, Kris Bryant (in a short stretch) and his remaining four starting pitchers. His trademark shuttling of players between multiple positions was evident that year, but limited to only a few spots (mostly in the outfield) because his starters were playing so well.

He had none of that this year. No solid rotation. No MVP-quality season by anyone. And a plethora of injuries. Just about everyone was asked to play multiple positions, especially in the infield, and many, especially the young players, were overmatched by that demand, with way too many errors in the field as a result. And day after day Kapler kept doing it, because it's what he does. When it works, he looks like a genius. When it doesn't...  well, he gets fired.

If there's a positive takeaway at the end, it's all the rookies and youngsters who got real action for the first time this year; we expect a few will become solid starters for whoever takes over in 2024.  

And that leads us to the next question. Not only who will Kapler's successor be, but, do the Giants already have a bead on him? There's talk that Bob Melvin and the San Diego GM don't see eye to eye, and despite their late surge the Padres rank among the most disappointing teams in baseball this year. 

Speculation for another day. We wish nothing but the best for Gabe Kapler going forward.