69 The Hard Way

By now most of us know that fame, money, and accomplishments don't make for an easy life. An insulated one, maybe; a "pass" on behavior that might get the rest of us locked up, probably; a sense of freedom from the decisions "normal" people face every day, certainly.  

Gregg Allman never had it easy. He endured more personal tragedy than anyone ought to; that at least half of it was self-induced doesn't make any of it less grim, nor does the evidence that he was strong enough, eventually, to overcome all, or almost all, but that last enemy itself.

If you grew up south of Mason and Dixon forty-odd years ago, chances are Gregg's and his brother Duane's band, the Allman Brothers, was a major part of your life. Unlike the Beatles and the Rolling Stones and the other British bands, unlike the legends of California psychedelia, the Brothers weren't iconic, larger-than-life figures. They were guys like us, something akin to a group of slightly older cousins and their buddies, who discovered they had the skill and the drive to play with the big boys-- and to knock their socks off. "The best band I ever heard," said the late promoter Bill Graham, who heard 'em all.

A natural sideman, composer, and arranger, Gregg Allman, like Robbie Robertson of the Band, was forced into a frontman/spokesman role by dint of circumstance and by a vacuum of leadership in his group. Like Robertson, by doing so he caused friction and resentment among the men who were his closest friends; unlike him, he handled it in spectacularly awful fashion and the tabloids had a field day. Yes, he overcame it. Eventually. The band was never the same, but the music carried on. Gregg Allman got into music because he wanted to play the blues. Like many before him, he ended up living them out, money and fame and accomplishment notwithstanding.

Perhaps Gregg's most ridiculed effort was the 1970s album he put out with then-wife Cher: "Two The Hard Way."  Prophetic, though, in that the hard way seemed to be Gregg Allman's only way.

News reports say the last song he performed was "One Way Out." He couldn't have picked a more appropriate number to say farewell.

Rest in peace, Brother Gregg Allman.

Can't Get My Motor to Start

At what point does a slow start become a lost season? Is there a definitive, predictable date or place in the schedule  where a team playing .400 ball, or .300 ball, or worse, knows, absolutely if reluctantly knows, that it's not going to turn around, no matter what? Have the 2017 Giants reached that point, have they already passed it, or is there still time to make a run at the postseason? What do past seasons, and past slow starts, tell us about the Giants' chances today?

Coming off a once-encouraging road trip that began with two wins out of three in St Louis, the club continued its short trek across the midwest by dropping three of four in Chicago, finishing the seven-game swing at 3-4, and losing ground both in and out of the NL West division. After a 5-2 homestand that saw the Giants bookend a couple of tough losses with a five-game winning streak, it was possible to hope they'd return home within five games of the .500 mark and get a little payback for last October at Wrigley Field. Now, after three straight losses, clearly outplayed by the Cubs in all three of them, the Giants sit at 20-29. They'll need to go 25-16 over the next six weeks to reach .500 at the All-Star Break, which automatically puts a team in contention these days. Does anyone who follows this team closely think they're equipped, let alone likely, to do that? Another five-game win streak at home will do little to reverse the trend, if the team can't play .500 ball on the road.

How does this rank with the worst starts in Giants team history? Has any San Francisco ballclub ever shaken off a .400 (or worse) mark one-third into the season and won anything, or even come close?   Does history tell us it's already time to give up and find out who can play and who can't, or is Bruce Bochy's continuing stubborn optimism based on something more than, well, stubbornness?

We started thinking about this back on May 9, when the Giants sat at 11-23 (.324), the worst record in all baseball.  The statistical mavens who came up with "Wins Above Replacement (WAR)" typically peg "replacement level" in a given season somewhere in the .290-to-.310 range; that is, a player who's contributing no more than a 30% chance of winning to his team is a candidate for the metaphorical glue factory. A winning percentage even a little worse than the Giants' on May 9 would indicate, at least in theory, that the team would do just about as well if they simply released the entire roster and repopulated it with the Triple-A Sacramento River Cats.

An ugly thought, that one, even as hyperbole. Since that day the Giants are 9-6, not exactly a ball of fire, but a short step in the right direction. Today we're not here to review whether the current cast of characters on the roster is capable of turning it around and making a postseason run at this point. We're looking over 59 seasons of San Francisco baseball, identifying the worst starts in that period, and determining whether the record shows it can even be done.

A few exceptionally bad seasons need no analysis or exegis here. The back-to-back nightmares of 1984 and 1985, the nadir of San Francisco Giants baseball, will not be covered, for example, nor will those mid-Seventies train wrecks (1972, 1974, 1976) or the rebuilding years of a decade ago. We'll focus on the Giants since the 1986 renaissance, with emphasis on the "Sabean years" from 1997-2004 and the return to quality form beginning in 2009.

We've always held the start of the 1991 season up as the worst of the worst. A team expected to contend instead began the year 12-29, an execrable .293, true replacement level and five games worse than this year's model. At the time, manager Roger Craig was defiant: "We're gonna turn this thing around yet," he promised. "You all will be back here in a couple of months asking us how we did it."

Well, they didn't, and indeed it would surprise us if any team, in any league in any year, ever overcame a sub-.300 start after one-fourth of the season. But that Giants team did go 63-58 the rest of the year, and even reached .500 in August. Sadly, good ol' Roger had already managed his last winning team in San Francisco, he just didn't know it.

That would be the previous year's team, 1990, which combined a bad start (11-20) with a terrific start by the division-rival Cincinnati Reds (22-8) to fall out of contention before school even let out. Amazingly, that '90 team, led by two rookie pitchers and the "Pacific Coast Sock Exchange" (remember?) went on a 47-28 tear and got within four games of the lead in late July before settling back and finishing at a more tepid, but respectable, 85-77. This year's team had the same record 31 games in; we're sure many of you would eagerly take a 85-77 finish now. (Then again, that benighted 1980 squad opened at 11-20 too, and may as well have gone no further.)

None of the Giants' three World Championship teams had to overcome a wretched start like this, and the winning teams of 1997-2003 didn't either. The 2001 squad opened 15-15, then reeled off seven wins in eight games and was in the thick of the race the rest of the way. The 2012 champions also started 15-15 but by this point were 26-23 and on a steady climb. The 2013 team started 18-12, same as the 2010 squad, but didn't deliver the goods, though they stayed in contention most of the way. The Sabean era, as a whole, has seen a few .500 starts, many above-.500 starts, and a few .600 starts, the best years being 2002 and 2014 (19-11), and 1999, 2010, 2013, and 2014 (18-12).

It's not really in anyone's best interest to remember 2004, a season that ended as rudely as one can end. But the Giants did overcome a bad start to get within one game at the finale. They opened 13-18, which is barely .400, and on May 19 were still slouching along at 16-24, similar to this years' mark-- and they had just endured a ten-inning walk-off loss at Wrigley Field, too.

Then they came home and won ten straight. Three awful losses in Arizona dropped them one game below .500, after which they went 17-6, took over first place, extended their lead to three games, and stayed in the fight the rest of the way, finishing at 91-71, two games back in both the division and wild-card races. After that rotten opening quarter, they went 75-47 (.620) and came within one out of the postseason.

So the good news is, yes, it can be done, and a Giants team has done it. The bad news is, in 59 years of baseball, one Giants team has done it.

Stay strong, people.
 

 

Heaven in Seventeen

Well, any win when you're playing .351 ball is kinda heavenly. Goodness knows, last night's exhaust-o-thon brought out the best, sort of, in two beleaguered bullpens. Cincinnati's six-man contingent allowed only four hits and didn't walk a batter over nine full innings; Robert Stephenson was working on his third frame when Buster Posey launched that ball into the seats and launched the remaining faithful into delirium.   The Giants' first four relievers barely covered two innings between them, but then the Whipping Boys-- Kontos, Morris, and Gearrin (or Manny, Moe, and Jack, for those of you scoring at home), worked nearly seven total. Oh, they were in and out of jams in every frame, it seemed, but "out" is the key word here. The key stat? Two leadoff singles, but no leadoff walks.

Our friend Cory Gearrin had to make it interesting, though, didn't he? In the 16th, with a man on second and two out, he intentionally walked Tucker Barnhart to set up a force, then promptly wild-pitched himself out of the force. Second and third, two out, he hits the next batter to load 'em up. Up comes Giant-killer Billy Hamilton, who strikes out on ball four-- a pitch, so we're told, that might have been a foot outside. Blind pigs, acorns, and all that. Next inning, Gearrin gets two quick outs, then gives up a single to the opposing pitcher and hits another man with a pitch before getting the third out. Blessedly, Posey ended it moments later. So that's two hits, a walk (albeit intentional) and two HBP in two innings for a tidy 2.5 WHIP.  But hey-- a 1.23 ERA, and, for a change, Gearrin was on his own hook for all five of those potential runs. The Reds stranded 16 on the night, the Giants six.


High-wire-act wins like these do nothing to dampen the unenthusiasm of the most pessimistic among us. On the Giants' website this morning, we read:

Resistance is futile. The Giant's offense is futile. Sir Hensley is futile. Bochy is best when he does nothing. Time to right the ship and replace the manager, hitting coach and pitching coach. 

Span is hot. Trade him before he falls back asleep.

Pence did not play at all today. Trade him before he gets injured.

Since Ruggiano is actually hitting, The Giants can DFA Gorky. Bring up Slater.

Post Melancon on the internet and take the highest bid. He will bring at least two quality top 100 prospects.

Let it be known that Posey is available and collect three top 100 prospects.

Getting very close to that time when Nunez become most valuable. Possible top 100 prospect in return.

Gillaspie needs to be moved to make room for Hwang. Trade him for mid level prospects.

Belt needs to be moved, His contract is club friendly. Again we have Hwang and Shaw ready.

Ask Crawford if he wants to stay during the rebuild. He will probably waive his no trade. Easy two top 100 prospects.

Cueto was superb again today. He is finally stretched out from not having a spring training. Send him to the Yankees for two of their top 100 prospects in the outfield. 

Once Bumgarner has recovered, if he does, send him packing for two top 100 prospects.

But most important, Bochy, Muelens, Righetti have to go first.


Now, a few of these points make sense, that's about it. Meulens does not seem to be helping anyone, and he can go anytime, but nobody is firing Bochy or Righetti mid-season. If the Giants lose 90+ games, expect Bochy to "step down" (voluntarily or not) after the season. Righetti might move on as well. We do not expect him to take a manager's job, here or anywhere.

Trading Posey or Bumgarner is a certifiably insane move. These are franchise players, the type you build a team around.

DFA Gorky, bring up Slater? Sure.

Now, if we are sub-.500 at the ASB, trading Cueto to a contender makes sense, if we get top prospects.  Same with Melancon, though he's harder to move with a bigger price tag.

We're fine with trading Nunez for good value.

We love Gillaspie as we loved Ishikawa, but yes, he's on the bubble. Fetch a mid-level prospect? Hmmm...

Pence is owed $37M yet, this year and next. A contending team might make a play for him. It might make sense to do it if real value ensues, but if the Giants do this, the fallout will make last year's Duffy trade look like a tempest in a teapot by comparison.

Span has no trade value. He makes $11M this year, $11M next, with a $4M buyout after that. $26 million? Giants would have to pay much of it. Better be a #1 in return. LOL. We do think Span has value, just not as a everyday starter (and we'd sure like him to make us eat those words).

Belt has $70M remaining over 4 years with no club option. What's club-friendly about that? Who's gonna pay that, let alone hand us prospects in return?  How's Hwang's or Shaw's defense? Belt has one of the best gloves in the game, and he's a big reason our infield defense is still excellent. If he were tradeable, that would be one thing. But no GM is going to give up top prospects and pay that kind of money based on Belt's stats. People think first basemen have to be RBI men, and Belt isn't.

Odd they haven't mentioned the most "DFA-able" area of the team-- the bullpen. Even after last night, the inconsistency there is most troubling.


Bottom line from where we sit: the Giants are not yet in panic mode, and certainly not in fire-sale mode. This homestand, with one win in the bank and six games remaining, is the crucible. One-fourth of the season will be complete when the Giants leave for St Louis next Thursday. Winning five of six right here, against Cincinnati and LA, would put the Giants at 18-25 and over .400.  Is that necessary? Will anything short of that doom the season? That's our next subject.

"LEADOFF WALK LEADS TO WALK-OFF"

Sometimes the headlines write themselves.

... Into A Lot More Wreckage

On the heels of a brutal, 13-5 shellacking in LA three nights ago, the Giants were hammered again, by a count of 13-3, last night in Cincinnati. Pitchers' park, hitters' park, this time zone, that time zone, rain delay, no delay... none of it seems to matter when you're on the downward spiral.

The numbers from this latest debacle are.. well.. kinda amazing. Consider this: The Reds banged out 16 hits, received a positively ungodly 12 walks, with one hit batsman and one reaching on an error. Given 30 baserunners, they scored 13 runs, had two thrown out on the bases, and left fifteen men on base.

Heaven knows how many runs they might've scored if they'd hit with a little more efficiency!

Matt Cain's Game Score of 3 was the lowest of any Giant starter this season. The previous mark, 8, was set by Matt Moore-- two days ago. Yep, we're turnin' it around, all right...

Who needs the long ball? The Reds scored 13 runs without benefit of a homer. Who needs the big inning? They never scored more than 3 in any inning-- but they scored in 7 out of 9 innings.

Billy Hamilton, whose average and OBP were barely north of Gorky Hernandez' coming into the game, gave a one-day "Leadoff Man" clinic: 3-for-4 with 2 walks, 4 stolen bases, 4 runs scored. We still don't think he'll be a real leadoff man until he learns to take a walk every 5 AB or so, but at age 26 we sure do like him as a player.

Over on the Giants website comments page, one known as OAKMAN refers unfailingly to Hunter Strickland as "The Arsonist Formerly Known as Strickland." We'll now petition OAKMAN to come up with an appropriate nickname for Cory Gearrin. Has a 1.54 ERA ever been so deceiving? Gearrin kept his one-walk-per-inning ratio steady-- he now has 12 BB in 11.2 IP-- and once again allowed all 3 of his inherited runners to score, thus inflating Matt Cain's already-bruised ERA by several decimal points. If Hunter Strickland is "The Arsonist", what does that make Gearrin? "The Inflater?" "The Doormat?" "The Turnstile?" (We kinda like that last one.)

Note that since April 10, the home opener, the Giants still haven't matched their longest winning streak of the season-- two.

And on a positive note, it appears it won't take much for the 49ers to have a better season than the Giants in 2017!

Crawling From the Wreckage

The revolving door that is the Giants' 2017 bullpen continues to spin. Out goes Chris Stratton, he of the 27.00 ERA, and in comes Josh Osich, he of the 7.71 ERA. At Triple-A, that is. A 7.71 ERA at Sacramento, even allowing that the PCL is a hitters' league-- just how valuable is that "MLB experience" when you can't get anyone out?  While a decent ERA can sometimes mask a lousy relief pitcher-- hello there, Cory Gearrin-- a lousy ERA rarely lies.

Overall the Giants' bullpen has a 1.4 WHIP. They've walked 33 men in 76 innings. Gearrin has walked 10 men in 10 innings!  Hunter Strickland (10 IP, 11K, 1.0 WHIP) and Steven Okert (7 IP, 0.86 WHIP)  are doing their jobs. Derek Law may be coming around after an awful start.  Mark "Big-Bucks" Melancon has blown 2 saves in 7 chances, which puts him in Santiago Casilla territory if it goes on all year. It probably won't, and he's not going anywhere anyway. That's 4 guys worth keeping. The rest--- ?

After last night's full meltdown, Matt Moore in six starts has two great ones, two lousy ones, and two train wrecks. Jeff Samardzija, who starts tonight's series finale at LA, has actually pitched a little better than that. In two of his losses his issue was a couple of early runs allowed, followed by good pitching but zero support.  He will always give up more than his share of home runs, but that by itself isn't reason to dump him. (Walking guys ahead of those home runs would be.) And Johnny Cueto's had only one truly bad start so far. With Ty Blach and Matt Cain holding down their ends, the rotation is just a tad more encouraging than the bullpen, even with Madison Bumgarner on the shelf.

What is Gorkys Hernandez doing leading off? Or, more to the point, what is Gorkys Hernandez doing in the major leagues? Doesn't the Mendoza Line exist anymore?

We understand Bruce Bochy batting Joe Panik 7th instead of leadoff against a lefty-- sort of. But when you're 10-17, why are you playing lefty-righty percentages instead of simply putting your best players where they can make the most impact?  At the least, lead off Hunter Pence against left-handers, and if you must play Hernandez, bat him 8th. Maybe he can outrun a 30-foot dribbler and keep the pitcher from leading off the next inning.

The Giants allowed nine walks (!) yesterday and walked only once themselves. Nick Hundley drew the lonely base on balls-- his first of the season, in 55 AB's. It is to weep.  

Eduardo Nunez' average is settling toward the .250 mark. He can't steal bases if he ain't on base. With Brandon Crawford out, why not try Conor Gillaspie at third and Christian Arroyo at short?

Crawford, Buster Posey, Panik, Arroyo, Pence, and Brandon Belt are the obvious keepers at six starting positions. But that only highlights the total lack of production from left field and center field. We fear Bochy is counting on Denard Span "turning it all around" when he returns from the DL. That's an awfully chancy horse to bet your paycheck on.  Meanwhile, Austin Slater, 24, is hitting .291 at Sacramento. Like almost all the Giants' prospects, including Arroyo, he's shown little power, but he bats-right-handed, has good speed, and given our concentration of young talent at other positions, he looks awfully attractive at the moment. We know Belt can't stay in left because he anchors our solid infield defense (the one constant in this circus). Mike Morse, even if he was hitting (and he probably would if playing regularly) evidently can't start in left every day. Could Kelby Tomlinson, even out of position, really do any worse?

On the 40-man roster, we see two guys at Richmond putting up numbers. Reyes Moronta, 24, is a right-handed relief pitcher who has struck out 15 men in 8 innings of relief, walking only two and picking up 4 saves in 8 games. He's chunky, like a smaller Johnny Cueto-- 6' and a lot more than the listed 175-- and maybe those numbers won't last, but when you have big-league relievers who walk ten men in ten innings, a young fellow like this looks awfully attractive.  Moronta has a teammate, Miguel Gomez, also 24, who is listed as a third baseman and has never hit below .300 at any level of pro ball. He's a switch hitter who makes contact (only 12 K's in 81 AB) and, like most guys off the island, he won't take a walk. Maybe he can't hit major-league pitching, but when you have leadoff hitters who are batting .155,  a young fellow like this looks awfully attractive. And, for that matter, where in the world is Mac Williamson, now that he's off the DL?

When you're 10-18, there is no such thing as a viable status quo. We figure the Giants have about two weeks to pull out of this nosedive and save the season. That'll be the topic next time.