WHILE it may be particularly apropos to the continuing fortunes of our San Francisco Giants this sunny afternoon, we can't take credit for the above witticism. It's the title of a mid-1970s release by the hippie/cowboy band of some past renown, the New Riders of the Purple Sage. Yes, once upon a time your humble scribe here was given reason to believe he might be in line for an audition with that popular local band, who were looking for a new bass player. The advice given, by a good friend of Mr David Nelson, was to sharpen up by practicing to the songs on that live album, because it was the best representation of the group's then-current material. Well, that brief chance for a shot at the Big Time came and went quietly, but even after we wore out the grooves, the album remained in our collection for a few years, and the title was always worth a chuckle, and occasionally a "How true!" from fellow musicians.
The Giants have managed to stay on the outskirts of the National League wild-card race despite playing 68 of their 130 games on the road. Well, that's a bit misleading. It can be persuasively argued that the Giants have remained in contention because they've played the majority of their games on the road. Those of you who regularly visit this spot know we like numbers almost as much as we like music, and folks, the numbers back up our statement. Do they ever.
On the road, the Giants average a robust 5.4 runs per game, more than half a run better than the league average and only a tiny bit less than what the mega-successful LA Dodgers average overall. At home, well... it's a smoking crater by comparison. The Giants average a mere 3.4 runs per game at Oracle Park. No other team in the league-- no other team in baseball-- has a two-run-per-game home/road mismatch, in either direction, either in pitching or in hitting. And it's all about the offense. As far as pitching goes, the Giants allow 5 runs per game on the road, 4.6 at home, neither very far from the league averages. If you weigh those four numbers-- 5.4, 5.0, 4.6, 3.4-- only one stands out like a you-know-what in a you-know-where. Consider that the Big O is only slightly below-average for opposing hitters, who average 4.6 against the league average of 4.8. Other teams aren't especially struggling with the park's allegedly daunting dimensions. Only the local boys are.
Here's another take. If the Giants played all their games on the road, they'd project to about 69-61, which is the Chicago Cubs' record today, good enough for the second wild-card spot at the moment. But if they played all their games at home, being outscored by 1.2 runs per game for 62 games, they project out to 46-84, worse than the Marlins, worse than any team in baseball except Baltimore.
Now, as the daily standings remind us, the Giants are sitting at .500 even though they've been outscored by almost half a run a game and should be at 60-70. (The reason they project to 60-70 on overall runs scored/allowed, instead of 58-72 as our runs-per-game average would have it, is because as we said before, they've played six more games on the road, which skews the overall projection by about 4% to the good.) They are 36-32 in those road games, which is right in line with their projected road record. But at home, where the projection has them at 22-40, they're 29-33-- still bad, but not terrible. So the skew between actual wins-losses and projected wins-losses is entirely a factor of how they've played at home. What's caused the Giants to win seven more games than they should in the Not-So-Friendly Confines, despite the most anemic home-field offense in the sport?
The first thing comes to mind is one-run games, and do the Giants win a lot of those! They've played 22 one-run games at home-- and won 17 of them, a .772 mark. (They're 13-8 on the road in one-run games.) The second thing comes to mind is blowouts. We define a blowout as a seven-run margin or more; the Giants are 0-5 at home in those. They're not so hot on the road, either, at 5-8, but quite a bit better than winless. Now, some of you will recall that disastrous series at the O at the end of May, where Arizona took it to the Giants in three straight games by a combined 34-8. Those three games alone account for more than half the Giants' current run deficit of 50.
So when Miller and Kuip and Fleming cheerfully tell us that down the stretch the Giants have 19 games left at home and only have to play 13 on the road, does that provoke us to cheer-- or to cringe? Because ladies and gentlemen, if this team is gonna win, say, 86 games-- which means 21 out of the remaining 32-- they're gonna do it with the bats, not with this two-man starting rotation and the most overworked good bullpen in baseball. And if they score only 3.4 runs per game in those 19, that means we'd best start taking a look at what John Lynch and Kyle Shanahan have on tap for us, because theirs will be the only San Francisco team playing in October.
