Friday, November 19, 2021

Respect

BRANDON CRAWFORD has finished fourth in the National League MVP voting, behind Bryce Harper (now a two-time winner), Juan Soto, and Fernando Tatis jr. Quite stellar company to keep, especially when you consider that Crawford is five years older than Harper and a decade older than the two young superstars. Crawford received four first-place votes, which is especially sweet considering the level of competition. 

Looking at Win Shares (on the billjamesonline.com site) we see there's a three-way tie at the top of the league between Harper, Soto, and.... Brandon Crawford, all of whom have 31 Win Shares. Tatis is just down the list with "only" 28. Win Shares are directly proportional to team wins, adjusted for park and league context, and thus don't measure against a moving, some would say elusive, target the way WAR does.

Harper's total of 31 Win Shares in the context of Philadelphia's 82 wins is tremendous, but Soto's 31 for a team that won only 65 is staggering, reminiscent of Steve Carlton's 27 pitching wins for the 1972 Phillies who finished 59-97. Crawford's 31 WS among the Giants' 107 wins is simply MVP-worthy in any season, and we're pleased the voters recognized it, and recognized the best shortstop in the major leagues.

We just finished compiling the comparative stats for the Giants-Dodgers division series, and Crawford's 31 WS lead everyone. He had more than both Turners, Corey Seager, Walker Buehler, Max Scherzer, or even the injured Max Muncy.  At 34, after 11 seasons, he is just entering the phase of his career where totals start to accumulate. He's about 800 hits shy of 2000 right now, he just won his fourth Gold Glove and could win his second Silver Slugger, and he's been on three All-Star teams. This is by far his highest MVP vote total (he was 12th in 2016, his only other appearance). Among shortstops he ranks 68th all-time by the JAWS method. Two more outstanding years would go a long way toward building his career reputation beyond San Francisco, where he stands about tenth or eleventh among all SF Giants (we haven't updated the totals with 2021 data yet; it's coming), and of course, number one at shortstop. Right now Travis Jackson, George Davis, and Art Fletcher stand ahead of him in career WAR as Giants shortstops; all of those greats, of course, played for the New York Giants well before World War II. 

But career totals will have to wait for a career to finish, and if there's one thing we wish for Brandon Crawford in addition to the well-earned respect he's finally received as a MVP finalist, it's a few more outstanding seasons as the shortstop for Our Team, and a long way to go to that finish line.




Friday, November 5, 2021

Buster

 


The news that Buster Posey had decided to retire at the top of his profession was received here with little shock and modest surprise. "It's just like him," was our first thought. That the Giants' beloved "face of the franchise," the team's one constant over a decade of unparalleled success, would decide to walk away of his own volition, still able to play at a high level but confident enough to get on with the next phase of his life, seemed and seems to be entirely in character. 

After two seasons marked by injury and visible decline, he took a full year off with the pandemic, then came back this season, roaring back, with his trademark power and skill and his uncanny ability to elevate his teammates' play, and he did it at age 34. On the field he led the Giants to a staggering 107 wins and a heroic battle against the defending world champions in the postseason. Now he walks away, his accomplishments historic and our memories untarnished by the inevitable slow decline that ends so many great careers. Like Joe Montana thirty years ago, Buster Posey somehow embodies the very success he helped create, and does so with class and dignity. Yes. Beloved. That's a good word for today.  

That Buster Posey is the greatest catcher in Giants' franchise history, dating back to 1883 in New York's Central Park, is a given. That he trails only Mays, McCovey, Marichal, and Barry Bonds among all San Francisco Giants in career accomplishments is likewise undisputed. Where he stands among the greatest ever to play his position is our subject now. 

Comparisons are an inevitable part of baseball, especially at times like this, and today we're reminded of two other rare players who left the game at the peak of their skills. Yes, there's Sandy Koufax, of course, but the guys we're thinking of are Kirby Puckett and Will Clark. Like Buster, Will retired after a fine (.319) season and an outstanding postseason; he was 36. Unlike Buster, Kirby Puckett was forced from the game by a medical condition; he was 35 and also a 12-year veteran. Kirby is in the Hall of Fame, deservedly; Will, as a first baseman, didn't compile the big career stats needed to impress the voters. As a catcher, we're sure Buster's 12 years at the top of his position, and his three rings, will more than make up for a relatively modest 1500 hits and 158 home runs.  There's already been a great deal of discussion on the MLB and other sites regarding his Hall of Fame status, with most acknowledging he will go, whether in 2027, his first year of eligibility, or soon thereafter.

Among all catchers, Buster ranks 14th according to the JAWS (Jaffe WAR Score system) on baseball-reference.com. Ten of the 13 ahead of him are in the Hall of Fame. Of those thirteen, two who aren't yet in Cooperstown, Joe Mauer and Gene Tenace, played much of their careers at first base and DH. Only two of those who are in-- Yogi Berra and Bill Dickey-- have more than three world championships to their credit. None of the other top 13 has more than one, except Johnny Bench with two. The only other catcher among the top twenty with three rings is Jorge Posada, a pretty good comp for Buster as a hitter, but who doesn't approach his level as a catcher.

WAR, and JAWS to an extent, are cumulative numbers, meaning the longer you play, the larger numbers you compile. Win Shares, which we've come to prefer to WAR and its cousins, is similar in that regard. But looking at WAR-per-162-games, we find Buster Posey fifth among catchers all-time, behind only Josh Gibson (incomplete data, but still), Bench, Mickey Cochrane (like Buster, a relatively short career), and 19th-century Hall of Famer Buck Ewing, another who played positions other than catcher as often or more than he caught. Keep in mind that Buster played 80% of his games-- over a thousand games-- behind the plate. 

When you add it all up: the numbers, the three championships, the MVP award, the batting title, the seven All-Star games, the pitchers he caught and coached to greatness, the three no-hit games, the team-record 54 postseason hits, the balance between offense and defense that only the very best catchers possess, and the reputation that follows him wherever he goes-- Buster Posey is Cooperstown-bound beyond any doubt.


We have a few memories of Buster Posey that have been circulating through our memory this morning.

How about game five of the 2012 division series at Cincinnati? The Giants, held almost hitless in the first two games, have battled back on the road to tie the series. Top five, bases loaded, Mat Latos on the mound, and Buster crushes one high and deep into the left-field seats. Grand slam, 6-0 Giants lead...  but an inning later it's 6-3, the Reds have first and second, nobody out, and Matt Cain is wobbling. As Dusty Baker calls a double steal on a full count, Buster frames a perfect strike three, then fires another strike to third and Jay Bruce is out-- double play! Giants win the game, 6-4, win the series, and go on to win the World Series. What catcher could do more? 

Game Four, 2010 LCS against mighty Philadelphia, bottom of the ninth, score tied. Posey, 3-for-4 already, drills a single to right off Roy Oswalt for his fourth hit, moving Aubrey Huff from first to third, from where he'll score the winning run a moment later on Juan Uribe's walk-off sac fly.  

Game Four, 2010 World Series, at the Ballpark in Arlington. Top of the eighth and it's time for Buster Posey's first World Series home run, a cannon shot to center field. The Giants, who had lost Game Three, win this one behind rookie Madison Bumgarner and win their first championship the following night, with Posey catching the ineffable Tim Lincecum.

Second game of the 2014 division series at Washington, top of the ninth. Nationals' ace Jordan Zimmermann is holding a 1-0 lead and hasn't allowed a hit since the third. But after Zim walks Joe Panik with two out, the Nats bring in closer Drew Storen. Posey rips a single up the middle, sending the tying run to second. Pablo Sandoval then doubles down the left-field line. Panik scores, and Buster, charging home with the go-ahead run, is thrown out by an eyelash on a spectacular play at the plate that holds up after replay and the most expressive emotional outburst Buster will ever put on. Three hours and nine exhausting innings later, the Giants win it in the 18th and go on to win their third world championship.  

This year. Opening Day against-- Seattle? No matter. Buster Posey's first at-bat of this 2021 season is a home run, setting the stage for a comeback season-of-all-seasons that led us to this bittersweet day.    

May 16 at Pittsburgh. We watch from behind the Giants' dugout as Buster picks Giants nemesis Adam Frazier off third-- by throwing to second baseman Mauricio Dubon! The rookie takes the throw, ignores Bryan Reynolds' steal of second and fires to third. Whoops! Caught him! He's out by a mile! "Only Buster does that," is the consensus among the fans in our section.

And then we have the first game of the division series at home against LA just a couple of weeks ago. Everything associated with this wonderful season is on the line. First inning, one on, two out, Walker Buehler on the mound-- and it's Buster Posey, clobbering one to deep right center that sails over the brick wall, ricochets off a stanchion and caroms into McCovey Cove. Could anyone have blamed us if we saw that as a harbinger of a fourth ring to come? For it was Buster Posey, rising to the occasion, as he did again and again over a memorable decade as the best catcher in major-league baseball.

See you in Cooperstown, Buster-- summer 2027!  

Wednesday, November 3, 2021

Congratulations to the Atlanta Braves, 2021 World Series Champions



While this World Series overall lacked the drama we associate with the great Series of the past, it was a tight battle between two excellent teams, one that caught fire late in the season and another that played all year long as though they knew they'd be here at the end.  

The 2021 Atlanta Braves remind us a great deal of the 2014 and 2012 Giants World Championship teams. Like the 2014 Giants, these Braves won but 88 games, and they made it through the postseason and, especially, the World Series, with about half a starting rotation. No Madison Bumgarner heroics here, but then again the 2014 Giants didn't lose a starter to a fractured fibula mid-Series either. And like the 2012 Giants, these Braves made a series of trade-deadline deals that energized the team down the stretch and through the postseason. This all made it easy for us to pull for them to win it, though as everyone here knows we've great admiration for the Houston Astros team and organization, and for Dusty Baker. But hey, let's give Brian Snitker some major props, too. Four straight division titles, and year by year a steady climb through the postseason until, finally, his team reached the top.

It's no coincidence that our representative photo here shows commissioner Rob Manfred handing the trophy to the Braves. It was Manfred, remember, who shamefully and needlessly disrespected the people of Atlanta and of Georgia with his cowardly decision to knuckle under to a mob of "woke" bullies and pull the All-Star Game out of Atlanta. How fitting and how sweet it is for the Braves and their fans, and how sobering, perhaps, this moment was for him. We had hoped it would happen in Atlanta, but this will do. Dare we hope the pointless and embarrassing politicization of baseball will be rolled back after this?