MOGGA: Make Our Giants Great Again

 

Final National League West Standings

                W L GB

Los Angeles 98 64 Ohtani finally in the postseason
San Diego 93 69 5 Host Braves in wild-card series
Arizona         89 73 9 Eliminated on Monday
GIANTS         80 82 18 There'll be some changes made
Colorado  61 101 47 Some things never change

Monday's small earthquake, whose epicenter was just northeast of Third and King Streets, has pretty much overshadowed the usual ruminations and recriminations following an unsuccessful Giants season.  Farhan Zaidi is out, and astonishingly (at least to us), the great Buster Posey has stepped into the role as president of baseball operations. Buster has been periodically visible over the past few years since his retirement, identifying himself with the team, the City, and the ownership group. "He doesn't want the job," was the most common opinion on social media, but that changed two weeks ago when it was learned (leaked?) that he had a hand in negotiating the final conditions of Matt Chapman's six-year deal. Whether or not that was done to subtly undercut Farhan's standing, that's what it accomplished, and in the wake of all this (not to mention the wake of three straight losing seasons), the decision now looks inevitable. With that said, Buster Posey's unmatched Giants pedigree and credibility bring a warm and reassuring sense of optimism to all things Giant at the moment. 

Farhan Zaidi's legacy is, of course, uneven, with one phenomenal and historic season balanced against three mediocre ones. He'll be forever linked with manager Gabe Kapler, whose record is similar-- brief but unsustainable success. Zaidi took over in 2019, and being a Canadian, an outsider, a former Dodger executive, and a "stats geek," he was an easy target for unhappy fans. The most unfair and unwarranted claim was that he somehow "pushed out" or "forced out" Bruce Bochy as manager, which is an easily disproven lie. "Boch" at the time was 65, he'd been managing non-stop for 25 years, the Giants had lost 272 games his last three seasons, and he wanted, he needed, to take a break. He took three years off, after all; he could have had his pick of managerial jobs immediately otherwise.   

Farhan made two exceptionally good player decisions. Trading for Mike Yastrzemski was an all-timer, giving up no value for two superb seasons and four solid years. The midseason trade for Kris Bryant was an immediate success; it's unlikely the Giants would have won 107 games and the division without him. And letting Bryant go elsewhere afterward has also proven a wise decision. He found value in pitchers like Kevin Gausman, Carlos Rodon, and Tyler Anderson without breaking the bank.  But the "bargain bin hunting" approach did not yield success over the last three years, and of the "big" free agents signed last offseason, only Chapman and (probably) Robbie Ray are certain to stay. Jorge Soler is already gone (Zaidi should get some credit for swiftly recognizing that necessity) and Blake Snell's status is up in the air.

In the end, that great 2021 season was fueled by outstanding seasons from five players: Brandon Crawford, Buster Posey, Brandon Belt, Logan Webb, and Kevin Gausman. Three of the five were established stars before Farhan arrived, and those three had their last great season that year. None of them have been replaced, at least not yet, and only Webb-- drafted by Brian Sabean-- remains.     

Do the Giants, based on what we saw in the second half of the season, have the core of a contending team? Teams that finish the season strong tend to do well the next season; the Giants were 33-32 after the break, which is hardly "strong." September has not been kind to the Giants lately, and this year was true to form: they were 11-13 down the stretch. The best news the team received in the second half was breakout performances by Blake Snell and Robbie Ray. Snell put up 13 quality starts, most of them high-quality, out of 14 overall. Ray made seven starts before being shut down; five of them were excellent. Heliot Ramos, who made the All-Star Game, and Tyler Fitzgerald showed they're real players, along with Patrick Bailey, who did so a year ago.  The other youngsters-- Grant McCray, Brett Wisely, Jerar Encarnacion, and possibly Casey Schmitt, remain in the "hopeful" category, which has a quick expiration date.  Jung Hoo Lee, whose early injury seemed to cast a pall over the Giants' whole season, will return in 2025 to give the Giants two-thirds of a fine outfield. Matt Chapman is as good a third baseman as there is in baseball. So left, center, catcher, third base, and shortstop are settled. That leaves three spots, four if we count the DH. Soler wasn't the guy, but a real power threat at DH or first base would really help this group.  As would a starting first baseman and second baseman. 

If the Giants can offer Snell enough money and perks to stay ("I like it here," he said last week), it looks like a strong rotation with Webb, young Kyle Harrison, and a healthy Ray. Out of Hayden Birdsong, Mason Black, Keaton Winn, Tristan Beck, Landon Roupp, and the mercurial Jordan Hicks, we can hope at least one young starter will emerge.  Without Snell, or a quality replacement (Jordan Montgomery?), we're back to a guessing game.  And we expect wholesale changes in the bullpen; no one there is indispensable, though Ryan Walker and Tyler Rogers are the most likely to stay and Camilo Doval is arbitration-eligible. 

  

The Giants didn't have a lot of team outliers this year, though they were 18-9 in the increasingly rare category of "pitchers' duels."  Wednesdays and Fridays were their best days of the week, and Tuesdays by far the worst.  They did a little better in the daytime (33-30) than at night (47-52). They were 16-17 in Logan Webb's 33 starts, 14-10 in Kyle Harrison's, and 14-6 in Snell's.  Young Hayden Birdsong generally pitched well, but the Giants lost 10 of his 16 decisions.  Keaton Winn (3-9) suffered from atrocious run support (2.6), while the team scored a robust 5.5 per start for Harrison. Jordan Hicks (8-12), who started off so well some were touting him as an All-Star, got average support. As near as we can tell, he just  ran out of gas in late June; the Giants lost his last five starts.  The team was 7-5 when using "openers," mostly Erik Miller; the last of those was on July 28, a day game after the Giants' lone doubleheader.  

Quality starts: Webb 22, Snell 13, Hicks, Harrison, and Birdsong 10. Snell's average Game Score was 60, remarkable considering his lousy start (over his last three months he averaged 71).  Webb averaged 55, Ray 54 (in seven starts), Birdsong 51, Harrison 50, and Hicks 50. Those last three are fine numbers for rookies pitching in the major leagues; hope springs eternal in the human arm. 

Cheap wins (another endangered species): Hicks, Webb, Harrison. Tough losses: Webb 2, Winn 2, Birdsong 2, Black, Roupp. 

Best start: Snell's no-hitter on August 2 in Cincinnati, of course (Game Score 95). Worst: Daulton Jefferies' only start, at San Diego in the season's fourth game (11). Six weeks later he was traded to Pittsburgh. Worst start from a regular pitcher was Birdsong in Washington, four days after Snell's gem: Game Score 13.  Atlanta's Chris Sale, who may miss the playoffs, had the best start against the Giants, a 83 on August 12 at Oracle Park. He didn't get the decision but the Braves won in 10. It was the pitchers' duel of the year, as Snell put up a 77 in opposition.  And on the 23rd anniversary of the cowardly attack on America, also at Oracle, Colin Rea of Milwaukee was clobbered by the Giants and posted a big fat zero for this efforts. It didn't slow down the Brewers much.  The worst combined start by both pitchers was 53 on August 6 in Washington. Birdsong put up a 16 and the Nationals' McKenzie Gore got the win with a 37.  And the biggest starting pitcher mismatch was Rea's aforementioned meltdown, because Snell had him 61-0 that day.

No Giant (we seem to say this every year) was near the top in any kind of offensive category; only Chapman and Ramos had enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title. They tied for 33rd with a .791 OPS. The team leader was Tyler Fitzgerald at .831, good enough for 23rd if he qualified. LaMonte Wade's .380 OBP led the team, down from last year. He's a "tweener"-- good enough to play, not good enough to start regularly.   The left side of the Giants' infield-- Chapman and Fitzgerald-- was a combined 32 of 38 stealing bases.  If you are a fan of WAR, Chapman posted a 7.1, MVP level, and much of that on defense. This year he rates as the best third baseman in the game by both WAR and WAA. 

Logan Webb, as usual, was among the leaders in innings pitched and starts, and faced more batters than anyone, but he was down to 27th in strikeouts and 39th in WHIP.  He had six bad (GS below 40) starts this year, which is unlike him. As the hardest-working pitcher in the game, he needs to be sensitive to wear and tear, although the bad starts did not cluster at season's end.  Blake Snell didn't pitch enough innings to qualify, but his 1.05 WHIP is sensational, considering how the season began for him, and would rate 8th in MLB.  Camilo Doval had 23 saves before his fall from grace, still good enough for 14th overall.  Ryan Walker, who took over the closer role, had 10. 

As a team the Giants were 17th in MLB in runs, 16th in homers, 14th in walks, 21st in OBP, 19th in OPS.  On the pitching side, 19th in ERA, 16th in runs allowed, 22nd in WHIP.   They gave up 46 unearned runs, which is pretty good by comparison; most teams are in the 60s.  

In BBRef's wonderful "Wins Above Average By Position," the Giants' pitchers rank 20th, with the bullpen slightly ahead of the starters.  Their best position by far is third base, of course, and their worst second base, where they rank 28th, about even with the 121-loss White Sox, at minus-two.  Overall the Giants rank almost three wins below average, which is 78; they won 80. We knew they hired Bob Melvin for a reason, right?

Roll the statistical parade 

The Chicago White Sox, having set the modern record for losses, head up all sorts of interesting statistical categories, all of 'em bad. They scored only 507 runs, nearly 100 less than any other team. Average, OBP, slugging, all at the bottom. They only hit 9 triples. They did steal 90 bases, more than seven other teams including the Yankees, Tigers, and of course the Giants, though they did so at a lower success rate. On the pitching side, they had a better ERA than Miami or the Rockies, though that's not adjusted for park effects. They allowed 75 unearned runs and 201 homers.  The "WAA" stat compiler look like it might not be able to handle extremes; it has the Chisox at 26 wins below average, which is 55 wins, or 14 more than they won. They're dead last in position players, but surprisingly almost normal in pitching. Worst lineup and outfield in the game...  The Los Angeles Dodgers' recent pitching woes continue. Team ERA 3.90, 13th among all teams. They gave up 198 homers, walked 501 batters, and dropped way down in strikeouts. But their team OPS is .781, better than everyone, and there's your 98 wins...  You want pitching? Go to Seattle. The Mariners only walked 369, their team ERA is tied with Atlanta for the best, and they just missed the playoffs... Arizona scored a MLB-leading 886 runs, 200 more runs than Detroit, but which team made it to the postseason?...  The Yankees homer a lot (1st), walk a lot (1st), but don't strike out much (20th). And despite all the long balls, only three teams hit the ball on the ground more often than they do, which may explain why they also ground into the most double plays...  The Washington Nationals may lead the majors in stolen bases, but the Milwaukee Brewers are much better at it (217/259 versus 223/296). Yes, "caught stealing," the old double negative, is still an important and often obscured stat...  Shohei Ohtani, the first 50/50 man in history, is also the best base stealer in the game, with 59 steals and only 4 caught. Cincinnati's Elly De La Cruz had 8 more steals, but was caught 12 more times. No comparison... With Ohtani and the stupendous Aaron Judge the two best players in baseball this year, is a Yankees/Dodgers World Series showdown inevitable? Not at all, in a wide-open and lengthy postseason, but it would be historic... How good does Judge have to be to be better than Juan Soto? 41 homers, 109 RBI, 128 runs, .988 OPS, and of course 129 walks against 119 strikeouts. Yet Judge has him beat in each category except runs, though the big fella did strike out 177 times... OK, so who else qualifies for our fa-vo-rite stat? Just two guys--  Cleveland's Steven Kwan  (53 BB, 51 K) and Mookie Betts (61-57)... Where's Jose Ramirez? Right here-- 41 homers, 114 runs, 118 RBI, 41 steals, only 7 caught, and waiting to see whom the Indians meet in the next round. More power to him...  Anthony Rizzo used to lead the majors in being hit by the pitch every year. Now it's not so cute-- he took a pitch off his hand last week, fractured two fingers, and may not play in the postseason. And nobody put up large numbers in that stat this year... The two MVP awards are already sewed up, but we have a plethora of Cy Young candidates in both leagues. Chris Sale is an obvious front-runner, but Detroit's Tarik Skubal is right there. They are 1-2 in wins, ERA, and strikeouts, and each might win the prize in his respective league... Skubal also has a 0.92 WHIP, just ahead of our old friend Zack Wheeler. Another former Giant, Carlos Rodon, is in the mix, and Seth Lugo, who pitched a great game against Blake Snell just a week or so ago, is right there, too... Another former short-term Giant, Tyler Anderson, led everyone with 73 walks, but in 179 innings that's not bad. Toronto's Chris Bassitt just nosed him out for highest walk rate per 9 innings...Lookin' for outliers-- wild pitches, pickoffs, balks-- and not getting any silly numbers this time around... Too much normality!

OK, right now Detroit just took a 5-2 lead over Houston in the eighth at Minute Maid. A lot of these wild-card series seem to be over in two games, and the Tigers, having won yesterday, are in position to give the 'Stros their earliest exit from the postseason since they started dominating it in 2017. And the Kansas City Royals, one game up on Baltimore already, have a 1-0 early lead at Camden Yards.  The Mets and Padres are likewise positioned to eliminate the Brewers and Braves later this evening. For us, we'd like to see Milwaukee advance, but all the 2024 postseason teams look to be as evenly balanced as any time in recent memory.