Oh Yes, They Call Him "The Streak"

With apologies to Ray Stevens, patron saint of scenery-chewers everywhere, we take this opportunity to celebrate the Giants' current run of success, which has seen Our Ballclub win 13 of their last 14-- first eight in a row and now five straight as we pause on this off-day before beginning a weekend series in Denver. Leading the division by four and a half games, we are. In all of baseball, only the Chicago Cubs, who lead Pittsburgh by five, have a bigger cushion-- and the Giants just took two of three from those Cubbies last weekend. So there!

For those looking for clues to all this success, we need but note that the Giants' five starters have racked up, yep, exactly thirteen quality starts in those 14 games, the lone stinkeroo being Jake Peavy's extremely limited outing against those selfsame Cubs six days ago. Peavy, whom most fans have been readying for the glue factory this spring, has sandwiched two solid starts around that train wreck, most recently yesterday's fine effort which the Giants reclaimed in ten innings-- too late to give the Jakester a "W," but right on time according to Hoyle. Six of the thirteen wins have been one-run affairs, including back-to-back 1-0 games against the Cubs, who are a playoff-worthy team, and the just-departed Padres, who ain't.

It all began in the thirteenth inning of the final game in a most unsatisfying homestand, where the Giants followed an unhappy four-game split with the Rockies by losing two to the American League Toronto Blue Jays. The Colorado series had opened with Matt Cain hammered unmercifully in a 17-7 wipeout, followed by the obverse-- three straight games where Our Heroes scored 0, 1, and 0 runs, wasting good starts by Jeff Samardzija and, yes, Peavy. The run-scoring drought blessedly relieved in the last game of the Toronto series, the Giants' bullpen then appallingly choked away a 4-0 lead and plunged into extra innings, with yet another home sweep by a visiting ballclub looming over the proceedings.  Then in the 13th, it was a hit batsman, a fumbled bunt, a wild pitch, and two walks-- one intentional, the next decidedly unintentional-- and in came the winning run. The Giants have been lights-out ever since.

The jewel in the 14-game crown was Madison Bumgarner's nationally-televised tour-de-force last Sunday night against the Cubs. He shut out that powerful lineup on three hits, struck out six, drove in the game's only run himself with a  double that he absolutely ripped over the left fielder's head, and lasted into the eighth, yielding to Bruce Bochy and the bullpen only after a two-out walk. There have been four starts during the streak with higher Game Scores-- two by Johnny Cueto, one by Samardzija, and one by Bum himself-- but beating the league's top team in a 1-0 classic in prime time sets the tone. It's been all about pitching, and the airtight defense we've come to expect, over the last fourteen: the aggregate score has been 49-30, Giants.

And that is indeed a good thing, because the "deadly lineup" we touted at the start of the season has lately been anything but.  No Giants starter is over .300, few are even close, and while we all know batting average isn't the whole story, there's no question the runs have declined as the averages have settled into the .250 range. Hunter Pence (.292) and Brandon Belt (.276) have been carrying most of the water, leading the team in runs and OBP. Brandon Crawford has weighed in with 27 RBI, but Buster Posey sits at a mild .265/.328/.426, with just 18 RBI in 43 games. The Castor and Pollux of the infield, Joe Panik and Matt Duffy, are both floating around. 250 with no power, while Denard Span has kept his OBP above .350 by dint of 24 walks in 181 AB, just qualifying as a bona fide leadoff man.

With the perennially-fragile Angel Pagan now on the DL with hamstring issues, the outfield is suddenly looking kinda thin. Jarrett Parker, recently called up from Sacramento, homered in his first game, but it's difficult right now to slot him ahead of Kelby Tomlinson, who is hitting .344 in 61 at-bats and has made the most of his two starts in left field. Pagan was doing well, as is his wont, until the first injuries intervened; his recent history has shown that each trip to, and return from, the DL results in a less effective player. There's simply no way the Giants can rely on him to produce day-in-day-out any more; anything he contributes has to be considered a bonus. Gregor Blanco has hit 4 triples in  86 at-bats, which is cool, but we can't expect 2014 to repeat itself. There's a hole in left field, and someone will have to fill it. Right now the job's there for the taking.

Belt, third in the league with 35 walks, ranks ninth with a .407 OBP. No other Giant is in the top ten in any category, except Blanco with his 4 triples, tied for the lead with three guys who have twice his number of at-bats. It's a much happier picture on the pitching side, where the Big Three-- Bumgarner, Cueto, and Samardzija-- are among the top ten in wins, ERA, and strikeouts. They're a combined 20-5 so far, and Cueto's WHIP of 0.99 leads the club, with "Shark" at 1.06 and Bum at 1.12. The  Giants' two big free-agent signings have, so far, paid off admirably. Both have thrived at home, on the road, in the daytime, at night... you name it.  And on the back side, well, Peavy still has the league's worst ERA, but he's brought it down a bit, and Cain, with three strong starts in a row, is barely above 5 and falling. He opens the series at Coors Field tomorrow night.

Injuries to George Kontos and Sergio Romo, and startling ineffectiveness from Javier Lopez and Santiago Casilla, have cast a pall over the Giants' once-bulletproof bullpen. Lopez has begin to settle down lately-- 4.32 is awful but you should have seen it three weeks ago-- and Kontos, who's been in only 11 games, just returned to action. The man he has essentially replaced, Romo, remains uncertain as to a return date. Casilla's numbers-- 1.83, 24 K versus 5 BB in 19 innings-- are good, but he has blown three saves in 15 attempts. We were singing the praises of lefty Josh Osich as recently as last night, until he gave up a game-tying two-run homer in the eighth that cost Peavy the win. We still like him well enough. One thing we hate is when relievers walk people, and that has hurt Hunter Strickland at times, as well as Osich, Casilla, and especially Lopez.

Defensively-- aw, we'll just say it, the Giants' infield is the best. Buster Posey leads all catchers with a .526 stolen-base percentage (the great Yadier Molina is having a terrible time-- .706! What gives? We also have to note that the Met's J.T. Realmuto has turned six double plays). All four infielders are near the top of the league in the major categories, which bears out what we're seeing and hearing every day. And though it doesn't show up in the individual  league-leader stats, the Giants' left-field collective-- Pagan, Blanco, Parker, Tomlinson-- has combined for five assists, at least three of which we remember were outs at the plate. The Giants' defensive efficiency rating (DER)-- the percentage of balls in play converted into outs-- is only tenth in the league, though; perhaps because only Hunter Pence, among the outfielders, ranks high in range.

In the two most important aggregate team stats, the Giants are fifth in the league in ERA, and sixth in runs scored. Their team OBP is not out of whack with their runs scored, so at least statistically, it doesn't appear they are leaving an inordinate amount of men on base, unlike last year.  (If your anecdotal experience seems to tell you otherwise, don't worry; ours does too.)  The Giants have scored 211 runs so far, and allowed 197. That yields an expected won-loss record of 26-23 over 49 games, so at the moment the Giants are four games ahead of where they ought to be. The difference is those one-run games, and the difference-maker, from our perspective, is that the starting pitchers have given the team a chance to win 60% of the time-- 30 quality starts in 49 games. With a league-average offense, that's usually enough to win. Usually. We have 113 games left to find out if it will be enough this year.


Oh Yes, They Call Him "The Freak"

Tim Lincecum signed a contract with the Los Angeles Angels last week, and while he has yet to pitch in a major-league game this season, his progress has been encouraging. There were countless pleas on the Giants' website and Giants-related blogs and forums everywhere for the team to sign Timmy, especially in the wake of Peavy's well-documented struggles. Well, it didn't happen; the Angels are desperate for pitching in a way the Giants can't even imagine, and they'll take help wherever they can get it. A dear family member of ours is an Angels fan, so it's not difficult for us to generally wish them well, and easy for us to hope Tim Lincecum revives his career in Anaheim.

As a Giant, Tim ranks behind only Juan Marichal in career achievements by a pitcher, and no Giants fan will ever forget his four-year run from 2008 to 2011 as the game's best and most exciting pitcher. It was Tim Lincecum's arrival as a Cy Young-worthy talent in 2008 that signaled the beginning of the Giants' current dynasty, and he saw it through in all its glory, from his domination of the 2010 postseason to his short but critical contributions from the bullpen in the 2012 series to his role as spectator in the 2014 run. Best wishes, Tim Lincecum, and if we see you in October, so much the better!

Baby, It's Cold Outside...

... but inside the friendly confines (literally confines, if not literally friendly) of roofed-in Miller Park on Opening Day yesterday, the weather was admirably suited to the proceedings therein, which principally involved the San Francisco Giants using the Milwaukee Brewers' pitching staff for extra batting practice.

As Jon Miller, Duane Kuiper, Mike Krukow and the Giants' broadcast team chuckled at the contrast between the snow blowing sideways outside and the fans swilling beer inside, Bruce Bochy's revamped lineup pounded out fifteen hits, drew five walks, and capitalized every which way on those opportunities en route to a 12-3 blowout win that should please all but the most hopelessly pessimistic among us. Oh sure, there's bound to be some nervous nellies pointing out that our ace, Madison Bumgarner, labored like a draft horse just to complete the minimum five, throwing 101 pitches and allowing a most un-Bum-like ten baserunners, three of whom scored, two via the long ball. But in true Roland Kirk style, we're going to focus on the "bright moments" that made this a most enjoyable Opening Day 2016.

First, there isn't an automatic out in this lineup. When Matt Duffy and Brandon Crawford are slotted into the six and seven spots, you know your group is loaded for bear. Duffy drove in four runs, including the Giants' first two, while "Craw" was on base twice and scored a run-- as did every Giant starter including Bumgarner. Even Gregor Blanco, who got into the game late, went 1-for-2 with a run scored. When they weren't hitting home runs, the Giants were hitting two-run singles, which is likely how this team is going to be getting it done day after day. They stranded only seven while scoring twelve, which is a big uptick from last year's trend.

Hey, that Denard Span fella sure knows how to make an entrance, don't he? Five RBI in his Giants debut, including a three-run homer that blew it open and kicked off the back-to-back-to-back spectacle in the eighth. The last time the Giants uncorked three straight home runs was a full decade ago, back in the Barry Bonds days. Matt Cain will remember that day; for the rest of the team it's the stuff of legend.

For the first time in Opening Day history-- and the first time in any game since who knows when-- both starting pitchers batted eighth in the lineup. "Bum" held up his end by drawing a walk with one out in the fifth. Angel Pagan, batting ninth as a "pre-leadoff" man, then doubled, setting up Span's second RBI of the day. Whether "Boch" continues this lineup chicanery with pitchers other than Bumgarner remains to be seen, but the early returns look pretty good. 

It's hard to find a "turning point" in a 12-3 game, but Pagan's multi-hop throw to the plate, which nailed Scooter Gennett trying to score from second with two out, emphatically ended the fourth inning, and ended a Brewer rally which had the tying run ready to come to the plate. Other NL teams are best advised to take note that we've got a centerfielder out there in left field! 

Joe Panik belted a home run at the plate, and turned a double play in the field, which speaks to good health and undiminished skills. 

New Giant Corey Gearrin made his debut in the best of all possible situations-- big lead, no pressure, start of the seventh inning-- and retired the side without incident.

So, with one in the bank and good feeling all around, now the two most expensive pitchers in San Francisco history will go out and start the last two games of this series. Brimming with confidence, we are. 

The San Francisco Giants Open the 2016 Season!

Madison Bumgarner, L

At 26, already rates as greatest SF southpaw of all time 
Johnny Cueto, R

Anything and everything possible with his level of talent 

Jeff Samardzija, R

Bochy, Righetti think the "Shark" can "pull a Schmidt" here 

Jake Peavy, R

Famed for lousy spring numbers, he needs to stay healthy

Matt Cain, R

It's all about the pain, or, more importantly, the lack of it
Chris Heston, R 

Last season proved he can step in as consistent starter

Santiago Casilla, R

Won't keep the closer job long unless he regains 2014 form

Hunter Strickland, R 

Likely being groomed as "closer of the near future" 

George Kontos, R

A key component to the continuation of bullpen "Core Four"

Sergio Romo, R 

Longest-tenured Giant is at a career crossroads

Javier Lopez, L

He's been so automatic, any dropoff comes as a shock
Josh Osich, L
Is he the new "Jeremy Affeldt?" Giants hope so
Cory Gearrin, R
"Mr Irrelevant" is 30 and for now, Bochy's 13th pitcher 

Buster Posey, c

Decision soon on his long-term future behind plate? 

Hunter Pence, rf  

Pence in the lineup means runs on the scoreboard

Brandon Crawford, ss

Has established himself as one of the best in the game

Denard Span, cf

Giants gambling on a bounce-back year from this veteran

Matt Duffy, 3b

May be team's steadiest player despite relative inexperience

Joe Panik, 2b

Says his health is 100%; we all know his game is

Brandon Belt, 1b 

Let's hope, again, a full season brings out his best 

Angel Pagan, lf

We all hope the move to left will yield 120 or so starts

Kelby Tomlinson, if

"Clark Kent" gives Giants super-powered infield depth

Gregor Blanco, of

If he starts fewer than 80 games, we'll have a great outfield

Ehire Adrianza, if

Earned the job by hitting over .300 this spring

Trevor Brown, c

Clearly outplayed Susac, who may be trade bait come summer 

RIP Allen Toussaint 1938-2015

Loose Talk

An article on csnbayarea about the Giants' planned pursuit of free-agent pitchers and such brought out a lot of chatter from fans regarding the team's current situation and the choices available.  Given the state of the 49ers at the moment, we found a few rounds of baseball talk to be highly refreshing. For those of you who missed it, here are a few of the comments we made in response to several discussion threads:

Outfield
Alex Gordon puts up about the same OBP as Aoki. Not the best, but around .360-.370, which is the acceptable minimum for a leadoff man.  At 32, he may start walking more, which would be good.  

I like Gordon a lot. He will be 32 this year. He's won a couple of Gold Gloves in left. Last year he DH'd only twice. Question is, if we pick him up it will be expensive, and that means another year of Pagan/Blanco in center, and will that be enough?   With pitching a priority, only one position spot is likely to be addressed. Last year CF was weaker than LF.  I'd rather have Aoki and a top CF than Pagan/Blanco and Gordon, though I really like him.

Parker is older than Madison Bumgarner. The chances of him ever being a full time MLB starter are slim.   This said, he has power and will take a walk, and I'd like to see him as the fifth outfielder in 2016. 


Bullpen
Bochy is the best "bullpen" manager in the game. When he says he's worried about the 'pen, then we should be too. Right now he isn't. 


Starting Pitchers: Greinke, Miller, Kazmir, Gallardo

"The Barry Zito contract wasn't a bad idea because they gave a lot of money to one player, it was a bad idea because they gave a lot of money to one player whose skills had been rapidly declining for 3 years, and was barely a league average pitcher at the time of signing." 

Kind of like Yovani Gallardo today, though I hate to say it, being a fan of his. But it's true.

I like Gallardo, but his K-W has been trending steadily down over the past few years while his WHIP is trending upward. He did post a good ERA in the AL last year despite this. He also made 28 times as much money as did Shelby Miller. 

Miller would be an excellent choice. he had a terrific year in Atlanta, ignore the W-L and look at the real stats. And he's only 25, already arbitration-eligible, and makes $500K. If the Braves are willing to trade, Miller is the best option for the money available.

Miller and Leake would make  a fine 2-3 punch. Miller has the most upside of any pitcher available, including everybody. He's only 25 and has not had a bad season.  Question is, do the Braves realize what they have and will they ask for too much in trade?   

I'm all for getting Greinke, he's the BPA right now.  If we could also swing Miller in trade, that would be fantastic, as he has the most upside of them all.

Grienke just turned 32. He is three months older than Kazmir.  Now Miller, he is younger than Bumgarner.  

Kazmir isn't in the same class as Miller. He's two years older than Gallardo. The only place he's really pitched well is in Oakland, so he might do well at AT&T.  He put up 3.3 WAR in only 18 starts for the A's, which is excellent, but over the past 7 years he's averaged around 1.5 per year, which is Chris Heston territory. And he's a lefty, which guarantees him a good job somewhere.  He might be a better choice than Leake for #3, but like Leake he may get offers the Giants won't match, for good reason.


Expect many more installments of this as winter starts rolling in, unless perhaps Blaine Gabbert turns out to be, well, better than "Blaine Gabbert."

Congratulations!

A class act from top to bottom in a great baseball town, the Kansas City Royals are the 2015 World Series champions. Our Giants were able to stop them a year ago. This year, nobody was up to the task. Completing a fine and memorable baseball postseason, the Royals were the unquestioned best of the bunch, relentless from beginning to end, and are a most worthy championship team. 

Jeff Passan over on Yahoo Sports has a fine article on the Royals' epic season and postseason, and the work that was done to build this champion. You can read it here:
http://sports.yahoo.com/news/the-epic-story-of-the-2015-royals-and-their-world-series-championship-150143613.html

Enjoy the moment, Royals fans, and maybe we'll see you again soon!