Wednesday, December 20, 2023

Gotta Catch 'Em All

 That won't be especially hard this year.  Yes, we've updated our "Greatest Players in San Francisco Giants History" page over on the right hand side there, and it didn't take long.

For the first time since we began this entertaining but pointless exercise, there are no current Giants on the list. Brandon Crawford bows out as the top shortstop in San Francisco history, and as the seventh-greatest San Francisco Giant of all time. Get that big "35" up on the Wall of Fame posthaste.

Of the current Giants, only Logan Webb materially improved his standing in 2023, with 15 Win Shares and leading the league in innings pitched. He now has 60 total points, just ahead of Mike Krukow and Rick Reuschel, and just behind Big Ed Halicki. 

Only two of the new Giants, Patrick Bailey and Blake Sabol, even made it to the qualifying list. Between them they put up 25 Win Shares in 2023, and we really hope that the signing of backup catcher Tom Murphy doesn't mean Sabol relegated to the minors. For reasons we're not yet able to explain, the team plays better when he's on it. 

As for Jung-hoo Lee, well, let's see what happens, but are we optimistic? Indeed we are. He's exactly the type of player this team has needed in the lineup and in the field. Now, how about going out and getting at least one starting ace to complement our man Webb?

Monday, October 2, 2023

                                   
Final National League West Division Standings

                            W        L     GB                                                     
Los Angeles        100    62            Braves are better, but not by much
Arizona                 84    78     16     Still don't see them as legit contenders
San Diego             82    80     18    Ended lost season with winning record
GIANTS               79     83     21     Kapler pays the price for collapse
Colorado               59   103    41    Is there any hope here?
 

We're not going to speculate about the next Giants manager. Maria Guardado has a long list of potential candidates here: https://www.mlb.com/giants/news/possible-options-for-giants-manager-position

We are going to note that the greatest shortstop in San Francisco Giants history bid farewell to the fans yesterday, in the season finale attended by almost 39,000 people. Brandon Crawford took the field at short to open the game as the cheers rolled across the ballpark. He batted leadoff, a class move by interim manager Kai Correa, and received another ovation in the bottom of the first.  In the ninth, Marco Luciano trotted out to relieve Crawford at short, and the Bay Area boy who once dreamed of playing for the Giants one day took his last bow on this, his last day, closing out a memorable career. There's fine video of it all on the team website. In his characteristic low-key, no-BS manner, Crawford thanked the fans, his teammates, and the Giants organization for a career and an indelible style of play that marks him as one of the greats. The Wall of Fame is sure be graced by a "35" not long from now.  

Brandon Crawford walks away with class and dignity from a team that is likely to see many more departures this offseason. The only reason there might not be a wholesale exodus of veterans is that curse visited upon the game by the MLBPA, arbitration. More than anything else, arbitration encourages, if not guarantees, friction and animosity between player and team as each assembles dossiers to prove why the other is shortsighted, clueless, and wrong. Many players thus sign early to avoid the process altogether. Mike Yastrzemski, Austin Slater, Thairo Estrada, J.D. Davis, LaMonte Wade, and Tyler Rogers are all arbitration-eligible this year. What does a rebuilding team do in this situation? Some of these guys, we expect, still have team value going forward, but at what cost? None deserve a long-term contract. 

The only Giants player whom we are certain has a full-time position in the field for 2024 is Patrick Bailey. Every other position is up for grabs.  We could see Casey Schmitt at third, Marco Luciano at short, and Luis Matos, Wade Meckler, and Tyler Fitzgerald in the outfield, with Blake Sabol always around somewhere. Kyle Harrison and Tristan Beck may well join Logan Webb in the starting rotation. Of the veterans, we see Estrada, Wade, Davis, and Wilmer Flores as regulars and semi-regulars, including the DH. Flores and Wade as a platoon at first base might make sense. 

Extended contracts the 2024 Giants will carry include those of Michael Conforto, Mitch Haniger, and Anthony DeSclafani, the last of which the team may have to consider an unrecoverable sunken cost. Conforto will almost certainly exercise his option to stay; nobody will offer him $18 million based on this season. Both he and Haniger have the capability to bring real value if limited to about 100 games each, which will give ample playing time to the youngsters. Speaking of youngsters, the one Giant certain to get a fat raise is Camilo Doval, who led the NL in saves, nailing down his 39th on Saturday. (39 is just about half of the Giants' total wins.) He's currently making $735,000 on a contract that expires in a month. . 

And the Giants certainly will pursue Shohei Ohtani, even given his injury situation, and they will be fighting multiple suitors, especially the Dodgers. Cody Bellinger, after his huge bounce-back season with the Cubs, is only 29 and about to get mega-rich. The Giants will pursue him, too, and may have a better shot than anyone given the focus on Ohtani. Other than these, this year's free-agent market for big bats is pretty thin. Regardless, we believe the Giants' main focus ought to be, indeed must be, on reliable starting pitchers. Yes, Harrison and Beck have promise, and Sean Manaea finished well, but at least one "rotation anchor" is needed, a guy with  proven track record of solid pitching and, perhaps most important, durability. And two would be even better. There are a lot of possibilities. 

Those include Blake Snell, Mike Clevinger, Sonny Gray, Andrew Heaney, Michael Lorenzen, Seth Lugo, Kenta Maeda, Tyler Mahle, Jordan Montgomery, Aaron Nola, Martin Perez, Eduardo Rodriguez, Marcus Stroman, and Michael Wacha.  Vince Velasquez, James Paxton, and Frankie Montas have shown good stuff but are also dogged by repeated injuries, something the Giants have seen to much of already. And the best of the lot, Julio Urias of the Dodgers, is in legal limbo. 

You'd think at least one or two of those guys would be a good fit. With youth predominating in the field, solid veteran pitching is essential. Successful Giants teams have been built around strong starting pitching, a solid bullpen, and league-average offense. Of those three areas, starting pitching was the biggest issue in 2023; does anyone really think Kapler used "openers" and ran the bullpen to exhaustion because he wanted to?   




Well, the Giants scored more runs in 2023 than did the New York Yankees, and that's about it for the good news. Overall the Giants were 24th in MLB with 674 runs, well below the league average. The top five teams are all playoff teams; only the Cubs and Reds among non-playoff teams cracked the top ten. The Miami Marlins, who got hot in the last two weeks, eliminated the Cubs and Reds, and took the second wild-card away from Arizona, scored only 668, less than the Giants. They and the Diamondbacks are the only teams to enter the postseason with negative run differential. The Cubs, especially, must be wondering what happened. They finished 96 runs to the good, better than the division-winning Brewers-- and seven games off their expected record. 

Milwaukee does have the best team ERA in baseball, while the Giants are 11th, better than the Phillies, Dodgers, Braves, and Marlins. You may be wondering why we're on such a rant about improving the pitching if our pitchers are better than most of the big boys. Two things: first, the Giants' pitching was much stronger before the All=Star break than after, and second, eleventh isn't good enough. Until proven otherwise this is a pitching-driven team that needs to be in the top five at least, given the offense will at best come in no better than league average. 

Wins Above Average tells a similar story. The Giants were 22nd overall; ninth in pitching and 25th in the field and at bat.  Their only positive position was first base; their worst was the outfield, combined. Overall they were 8 wins below average, which suggests Kapler brought them in with a few wins better than they deserved.


The only Giant anywhere near the league lead in any offensive category was LaMonte Wade. His .373 OBP was 13th, just behind Adley Rutschmann and just ahead of Christian Yelich. His .790 OPS tied for 56th (with Bryan Reynolds and just ahead of Randy Arozarena). Wade also led the Giants in runs scored; he really did have a good year and deserves a chance to do it again in 2024. Another favorite is Wilmer Flores, whose .864 OPS would have been 13th if he'd had a few more plate appearances. His 23 homers. best on the club, tied for 62nd. Most of his HR peers had many more ABs, although the Cubs' Patrick Wisdom hit 23 in only 268 ABs. (Wisdom also batted .205 with a .289 OBP.) 

As has been noted elsewhere, Logan Webb led all major-league pitchers with 216 innings pitched. His 1.07 WHIP was sixth in MLB; Gerrit Cole, whose Yankees likewise endured a terribly disappointing season, led with a 0.98 (and also finished 15-4). Webb is also tenth in ERA. And he walked only 31 men in his 216 innings; 158 pitchers walked more in fewer. 

Only the Cleveland Guardians' Emmanuel Clase saved more games than Doval's 39.  Doval's ERA, K/9 and WHIP were right in line with the top closers'. 


Roll the Statistical Parade

Ohtani's 1.066 OPS leads the majors, and 44 homers in 497 at-bats is sensational. He will probably win the AL MVP despite finishing the season on the IL. Corey Seager had a huge year for Texas but also missed 40 games. Tampa's Yandy Diaz was great, too, but missed 25 games himself. In the NL, it likely comes down to Freddie Freeman (59 doubles, 131 runs, .410 OBP) and his rival, Atlanta's Ronald Acuna, who was a little better (a MLB-leading 149 runs, .337 average and .416 OBP, 41 homers, 106 RBI). Acuna also plays right field, which may give him the edge. These guys are so good that monsters such as Mookie Betts, Bellinger, Bo Bichette, Bryce Harper, Juan Soto, and Matt Olson (tops with 54 homers) will likely count as also-rans despite their terrific numbers. Watch out for Milwaukee catcher William Contreras and for the overachieving Miami Marlins' Luis Arraez, whose .354 average led MLB.   

Kansas City's Bobby Witt jnr and Arizona's Rookie of the Year shoo-in Corbin Carroll were the only major leaguers to top 10 triples; Ohtani had 8 to go with his 44 homers. And Juan Soto again deserves his own award: 132 walks against 126 strikeouts. Bravo! Kyle Schwarber of the Phillies is the Three-True-Outcome poster boy: 47 homers, 215 strikeouts, 126 walks, a .197 average and .343 OBP. 

Although Acuna led MLB with 73 stolen bases, the champion base-stealers are Carroll, with 54 out of 59, and Washington's good young shortstop, C.J. Abrams (47 of 51). And may we present our old friend Trea Turner, of the playoff-bound Phillies, who swiped 30 without being caught once. He also hit 26 homers and scored 102 runs. He needs to walk more; with that lineup he might score 150 if he doubles his 45 walks. 

Atlanta's Spencer Strider is the majors' only 20-game winner for 2023; he didn't complete a game but that 13.55 K/9 ratio tells the tale. He faced the Giants twice and won both games, allowing one earned run. The Braves won 104 games and two of his teammates had better ERAs, but he led MLB in strikeouts with 281 and we wouldn't be surprised to see him win the Cy Young Award. This is one time where a gaudy win total just might be the indicator. Blake Snell, whom we dearly want to see in a Giants uniform in 2024, led the MLB with a 2.25 ERA while winning 14. His 11.7 K/W is impressive, though he does walk people (99 in 186 IP).  Sonny Gray's another one; 2.79 ERA despite his 8-8 mark and average K ratio, and he doesn't walk people. We'll set time aside to watch him in the playoffs. Gerritt Cole, the Orioles' Kyle Bradish, and the Rays' Zach Eflin are all AL CYA contenders. Justin Verlander quietly had a fine year at age 40, as did Clayton Kershaw at 35, and Toronto's Chris Bassitt, recently freed from the A's and Mets, had a strong year along with our old friend, his teammate Kevin Gausman. Doval and Clase are sure to get some votes, too.

One of our favorites, Tim Anderson, turned 30 this year and celebrated with his first really poor season: a .245 average for this consistent .300 hitter, and since he doesn't walk his OBP was a gruesome .286. He's a free agent with a team option for 2024; at $5 million per year we have to figure the White Sox will go for it, expecting a bounce-back season. We saw him play this past May at the new Comiskey Park, and we wouldn't mind seeing him play 81 games at Oracle Park-- if 2023 was a career aberration and not a new trend. 

Ohtani and Cleveland's perennial stud Jose Ramirez led everyone with 21 and 22 intentional walks. The Reds' Sam Moll, the Angels' Jaime Berria, and our own Camilo Doval issued the most IBBs; the leaders in this category are all relievers. Dylan Cease of the White Sox and the Mets' fine righthander Kodai Senga led everyone with 14 wild pitches; Blake Snell also slung 13 balls to the backstop. Doval had 10 himself, and we remember more than a few of  'em; another reliever with a tendency to wildness was Seattle's Matt Brash. 

Snell was, by measure, the wildest pitcher in baseball (highest BB/IP), but he's in good company at the top with Charlie Morton, Senga, Merrill Kelly of Arizona, and the Phillies' 15-game winner Tajuan Walker. On the other side only George Kirby of Seattle and Zach Eflin had better control ratios than our own Logan Webb. Webb also forced 30 ground-ball double plays to lead MLB; he's the top ground-ball pitcher in the game. Houston's Cristian Javier is his opposite number with three fly balls to every grounder. 

Oakland's J.P. Sears hit 16 batters, more than anyone. We looked for the familiar name of Anthony Rizzo atop the hit-by-the-pitch leaderboard, but then realized he played only 99 games. Our champion is Seattle's Ty France. Modest numbers everywhere else-- but hit by the pitch 34 times! Runner-up Pete Alonso of the Mets had only 21. 

The Toronto Blue Jays must know what they're doing. Matt Chapman, in 581 at-bats, grounded into 4 double plays, and Cavan Biggio, son of Hall-of-Famer Craig Biggio, batted 289 times without grounding into one. Then in Minnesota we have Carlos Correa, pursued by the Giants in the off-season, who grounded into 30, worst in MLB, in the midst of a truly lousy season. All three of these guys are in the playoffs. 

It seems to us the Giants scored a lot of runs on the sacrifice fly this season, and if they sign Cody Bellinger there may be a lot more. He tied with the Dodgers' Will Smith for the lead with 12. 


The Postseason

It all kicks off tomorrow with Game One of the four wild-card series. Milwaukee hosts the Arizona Diamondbacks for three, while the red-hot Marlins are at Philadelphia. In the American League, the Houston Astros took the AL West division away from Bruce Bochy's Texas Rangers on the last day of the season, and thus earned a first-round bye. The Rangers now go Tampa Bay to face the Rays, who lost a spirited battle with the Baltimore Orioles for the AL East title but still finished with the second-best record in the league. The other AL series has Minnesota hosting the Toronto Blue Jays for three. Starting pitchers for all the games have not been announced as of this hour.

All these games will be played on consecutive days, Tuesday through Thursday, with no travel days, as all the series are played exclusively on the higher-seeded team's home field.  We visited Target Field and American Family Field this year and enjoyed both ballparks, particularly Milwaukee's. Of course some of that may be due to the Giants winning three of four in that ballpark during our visit! 

Saturday, September 30, 2023

Shockwave

Well, we didn't see that coming. The "Fire Kapler!"chorus that swelled on social media over the last month evidently reached a crescendo among those whom Farhan Zaidi and the Giants' ownership actually listen to, and so the move was made yesterday.  Susan Slusser of the Chronicle opines that the peculiar timing-- three games left to play on the road in a lost season-- may be intended to spare Gabe Kapler from endless speculation and combative press conferences over this weekend. Whatever. It's done.

Kapler can claim he kept a team in contention until the final two weeks while undergoing a rebuild, and there's some truth to that, and it's impressive in its own way. But his overall managerial track record in September, we must say, is not strong, and was the chief point of contention when he was hired. "They booed him out of Philly!" was the complaint. "They boo everybody in and out of Philly," seemed a fair response at the time.  But consider: in his two seasons at the helm of the Phillies, both teams blew potential playoff position down the stretch in a manner eerily similar to the Giants' big fade this year. In 2018 the Phils were 74-66 early in the month; they went 6-16 the rest of the way, losing 9 in a row in the final two weeks. The 2019 cave-in wasn't as dramatic, as the team was only three or four games above the waterline most of the year, but again they lost six in a row and 11 of 16 as the season closed out.

What makes this pill hard to swallow is, of course, 2021. It wasn't just that the Giants won a franchise-record 107 games and beat out what may have been the most powerful of the LA Dodgers' teams this decade. It was also the uncanny way Kapler won matchup after matchup in tight games-- his amazing success with pinch-hitters, the best in baseball, his ability to get the most out of journeyman relievers and to find the hot hand out of the bullpen. Of course he got MVP-quality seasons out of Brandon Crawford, Buster Posey, Brandon Belt (in 97 games), and Kevin Gausman, and fine seasons out of Evan Longoria, Kris Bryant (in a short stretch) and his remaining four starting pitchers. His trademark shuttling of players between multiple positions was evident that year, but limited to only a few spots (mostly in the outfield) because his starters were playing so well.

He had none of that this year. No solid rotation. No MVP-quality season by anyone. And a plethora of injuries. Just about everyone was asked to play multiple positions, especially in the infield, and many, especially the young players, were overmatched by that demand, with way too many errors in the field as a result. And day after day Kapler kept doing it, because it's what he does. When it works, he looks like a genius. When it doesn't...  well, he gets fired.

If there's a positive takeaway at the end, it's all the rookies and youngsters who got real action for the first time this year; we expect a few will become solid starters for whoever takes over in 2024.  

And that leads us to the next question. Not only who will Kapler's successor be, but, do the Giants already have a bead on him? There's talk that Bob Melvin and the San Diego GM don't see eye to eye, and despite their late surge the Padres rank among the most disappointing teams in baseball this year. 

Speculation for another day. We wish nothing but the best for Gabe Kapler going forward.  

Friday, September 29, 2023

 Random blasts from social media as the season winds down in disappointing fashion...


One indication of team fielding is the percentage of runs allowed that are unearned runs. I am sure it will surprise few of you to know that 11% of the Giants' runs allowed this year were unearned. Only the Angels were worse. Perhaps it will surprise even fewer of you to know that Bruce Bochy's Texas Rangers had the lowest-- 4%. How much all of this affects the standings may be debated. The Cubs, Phillies, and Astros, all playoff-bound, have high numbers, right behind the Giants, while the 105-loss Royals and the Nationals are commendably low, just above Texas.


There's nothing wrong with criticizing the team, the offseason signings, the trade deadline inaction, "analytics" (though all teams including the Braves, Astros, Rays, and Dodgers use them), Zaidi, Kapler, or calling for them to be fired. That's all understandable and a fan's prerogative when the team is losing, and blowing what looked like a sure shot at the postseason.

What's sickening and inexcusable is: calling the players "quitters" and claiming that ownership wants to lose. "Spoiled babies" is far too mild a term for those who post that bullshit.


Responding to Tom Verducci's comment about the Giants on SI.com: "If this is the future of baseball, I want no part of it"

Hyperbole. Teams that finish out of the running rarely become examples of the "future of baseball." The continuing tension in baseball is between the strategies and tactics that managers and coaches and players believe will give their team the best chance of winning, and the style(s) of baseball that fans find entertaining.


Responding to the familiar complaint that the Giants haven't had a player with a 30-homer season since Barry Bonds, and that Oracle Park is to blame...

In 2021, Brandon Belt hit 29 in 97 games. He might've hit 40 over a full season. (Of course, "full season" and "Brandon Belt" don't really go together.) In 2021 he hit 13 (in 189 PA's) at home, 16 on the road.

It's not the park, it's the players. Judge or Ohtani, if healthy over a full year, would hit 30+ or 40+ playing at Oracle.


In response to an unhinged and uninformed rant about fans who resell tickets:

Here's a true story about reselling tickets. Saturday, July 1, 2000, Giants playing the LA Dodgers, our first visit to the brand-new Pacific Bell Park. Season tickets were sold out, so my 8-year-old son and I went down and got in line for the small amount of day-of-game tickets available. I was looking at the number of people ahead of us, and I began to realize the tickets would almost certainly be gone by the time we got to the window. I was wondering how I was going to tell my son that I'd screwed the pooch and would have to go back on my promise. Right about that time a taxicab pulled up to the curb and a guy got out. Remember, there were a couple of hundred people, at least, in line. Without looking either left or right, this man walked straight up to us and said, "I've got two good tickets here, first base line, but I have to go to a wedding. I'll sell you these for face value if you have cash." I did, and we made the deal as everyone around us stared in disbelief. "I wanted to find a father and son who are Giants fans," he continued, indicating our SF hats and shirts, "and I'm damned if I'll let these go to some @#$%&*! Dodger fan!" We went in, and the Giants beat the Dodgers 4-1. A day I will never forget, and neither will my son.
To this day we call it "The Miracle of the Tickets." So you all have your opinions about resellers, I'm sure. And I have mine.


Responses to "We knew after last year that the Giants were one of the worst fielding teams and also one of the slower teams, " and "On the broadcast tonight they said the Giants are one of the better teams in zone range (or something). So while they've made a lot of errors, they've gotten to more balls to make errors on (or something). I don't really know how that stat works"

Range (or zone) is just a fancy word for total chances. And the Giants do lead the MLB in total chances, so their fielders have excellent range. They cover a lot of ground and get to balls that others would miss. It's a fair question to ask how many of those 107 errors would be base hits for most teams. No one has yet come up with a stat to accurately determine it. Errors are supposed to be called only on plays that would normally be made, which ought to filter out such uncertainties, but errors depend on the official scorers and their biases.
Baseball-Reference has a stat, "Fielding Runs Above Average," and the Giants are at minus-30, down there near the bottom with some bad teams. I don't know whether or not this stat incorporates range as a compensating factor. Milwaukee ranks #1 in this stat, and the teams at the top are all good teams.
So it may be that the Giants are getting to the tough ones and fumbling too many of the easier ones. We've all certainly seen that this year.

Regarding speed. The Giants have more total fielding chances than any team in MLB. They get to more batted balls than anyone. Slow teams do not do that. Stolen base totals can be deceptive since strategy and tactics affect those numbers as much as player speed, and maybe more. I agree, the Giants generally tend to shy away from the "disruptive" approach to baserunning that works for more aggressive teams. And I do think stolen base totals can be more indicative of run potential now than in the past, because most teams have figured out that if you're not successful stealing at least 80% of the time, you're better off staying put. The MLB average is 81% success and no teams are below 74%. The Giants are at 79%. Not that long ago I used to see teams at like 55%, they were costing themselves games and runs even when they stole a lot of bases.
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Both Kapler and the system need to go! (The terms "philosophy" and "style" were also thrown around)

I do not know what you mean by "system" or "process." I think you're conjuring up mythology. It's baseball. Our players have not been playing well over the last six weeks. That has nothing to do with strategy or tactics, but with execution.

The Giants aren't the only team doing this, or emphasizing this. It is a direct result of 12- and 13- and 14-man pitching staffs. You cannot have a strong bench with that many pitchers on the team. So the situation demands flexible multi-position players. It's a situational response, not a designed "system." And by no means is it unique to the Giants.
It's common. The Giants don't have the players that teams such as the Orioles, Rays, and Brewers do. Those teams also routinely juggle the lineup based on matchups. Once again, if you are carrying 13 or more pitchers, you more or less have to play this way because you have no bench.

Keep in mind, "Platooning" does not mean having players play multiple positions. "Platooning" means having two guys alternate at one position.

Kapler's style, if you will, hasn't changed since 2021.What's changed is, he had better players in 2021, and his better players played full time. He had 5 good starting pitchers in 2021, and he used them all in a normal rotation with no "openers." (Dave Roberts, whose Dodgers beat the Giants in the division series, used "openers" that year-- including Game 5 of that series!)

He had multi-position players in 2021. Look at LF, 2B, CF, RF. But he had Crawford, Posey, Longoria, Belt, and (briefly) Bryant starting every day because they were good enough to start every day and he knew it. Nobody this year was that good, except perhaps for Flores when healthy.
All this idiotic talk about Kapler's "system" and "philosophy" reminds me of an old NFL story. Back in 1978, the Pittsburgh Steelers were the Super Bowl champions, and the 49ers were the worst team in the league. A popular fad of the day was "biorhythms," with some suggesting that teams played better when their "biorhythm" charts were trending positive. One of my favorite people, Tony Dungy, summed it up like this: "I think your biorhythms are going to be better against San Francisco than they are against Pittsburgh."

















Wednesday, September 20, 2023

                                  W    L    GB                                                     
Philadelphia        82 69 Coasting toward home field series
Arizona                80 72   Just knocked out Giants

Chicago                 79 72         Stopped freefall just in time?
Miami                 79 73 0.5  Cubs are a better team, but... 
Cincinnati         79 74    0.5 No head-to-head left with Cubs
GIANTS                76 75  3 Turn out the lights; the party's over

Yesterday
Giants lost at Arizona, 8-4. 
Chicago waited out a rain delay and crushed Pittsburgh, 14-1, to snap their five-game losing streak.
Miami defeated New York, 4-3, after losing Monday, and Cincinnati was shut out by Minnesota, 7-0, after winning Monday.
Philadelphia lost at Atlanta, 9-3.

Today
Giants finish up at Arizona; 12:35 local time. 
Miami and Cincinnati complete their home series against New York and Minnesota, respectively; both daytime starts. Chicago hosts Pittsburgh tonight and tomorrow.

Last Night's Game
"Ask not for whom the bell tolls..."  That bell tolled, for the first time, in the bottom of the second inning. The Giants had jumped out early, LaMonte Wade leading off the game with a triple and Joc Pederson following with a two-run homer. But it all fell apart in the bottom of the second as Alex Cobb, determined but clearly hobbled, couldn't get enough on his pitches and the Giants, as has been their wont too often this year, added to the pain with some uncertain fielding. Four runs came across, a lead Zac Gallen wouldn't lose, though he was hardly at his best.  And that implacable bell tolled for the last time in the top of the fifth. Trailing 7-2, the Giants had rallied, pushing across two runs as a struggling Gallen issued back-to-back walks, the second with the bases loaded to Wilmer Flores and forcing in a run. Now it was 7-4. Pederson stepped in as the go-ahead run, bases full, one hit away from a brand-new ballgame-- and Joc took three straight called strikes. Inning, game, season-- over.   

What now? Cobb has likely pitched his last game of the season, and at 35 with a bad hip, his career may be in jeopardy. There's no reason any longer to hold back the rookies-- Kyle Harrison, Casey Schmitt, Luis Matos, Marco Luciano, Wade Meckler, and the rest all deserve their chance to lead this ballclub to s strong finish. The Padres have won six straight and are only two and a half games behind the Giants. It will take six wins over the final eleven games to secure a winning season and, probably, third place in the division. 

We'll be taking a few days off from this blog, and will return with our usual missive at the end of the regular season.   

Monday, September 18, 2023

                                  W    L    GB                                                     
Philadelphia        81 68 Some breathing room at top spot
Arizona                79 72   Swept Cubs to move up

Miami                 78 72    Swept Braves to move up 
Chicago                 78 72         5 straight losses; season in jeopardy
Cincinnati         78 73    0.5 Gotta win to keep up
GIANTS                76 74  2 On the outside looking in

Yesterday
Giants defeated Colorado, 11-10, to save one game out of what should have been a "gimme" series.  
Arizona finished up a three game sweep of the Cubs, and Miami did the same with Atlanta. Cincinnati lost at New York. Philadelphia lost at St Louis.

The Weekend
Giants were swept in horrific fashion on Saturday, looking about as bad as a team can look, especially against an opponent with 92 losses.
Diamondbacks and Marlins were the big winners, both sweeping good teams at home and moving up. The Reds split with New York. The Cubs, like the Giants, are in big trouble; they've lost five straight and their wild-card position. Philadelphia, more or less unfazed by all this, split with St Louis.  

Today
Giants have the day off; they open the big two-game series at Arizona tomorrow night. They'll have their two best starters, Logan Webb and Alex Cobb, ready to go. The question is, will they be able to hit Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly, two good righthanders with winning records and ERA below 3.5?
Miami hosts the Mets; Marlins are 43-32 at home this year. Cincinnati gets Minnesota at home.  Chicago is idle; they'll get the Pirates at Wrigley starting tomorrow.
Philadelphia is at Atlanta in a matchup of two (OK, we'll call it) playoff teams. 

The Weekend Series
How quickly the Giants have fallen, from the favored position Friday night to two games behind everyone else this morning. That disastrous ninth inning from the Colorado series opener seemed to haunt the Giants all day Saturday as they lost both games, grounding into five double plays and stranding 15 runners. The early game saw the Giants seemingly shake off the previous night's loss by jumping out to a 3-0 lead after two innings. But it all fell apart for rookie Keaton Winn in the bottom of the third: two walks sandwiched around a single, followed by a bases-clearing triple from Ezequiel Tovar, who had the game-winning RBI Friday night. Winn, to his credit, recovered and pitched a scoreless fourth, and probably should have been left in for the fifth. Instead, Ryan Walker got into immediate trouble, walking three, the last with the bases loaded. Ross Stripling then came in to issue another bases-loaded walk, and stuck around to give up three more runs in the sixth and seventh.   

The Giants never led in the second game. Paul DeJong, in there for defense, booted a ground ball in the first inning, and two unearned runs followed. The inevitable Charlie Blackmon, who sat out the first game, led off the third with a triple and led off the seventh with a double, scoring both times, while two Giants rallies were killed by double-play balls.  

Yesterday, with this once-promising series in ashes and a humiliating sweep at the hands of a last-place team they've owned all year staring them down, the Giants finally got off the mat and dealt out the kind of beating we've all been expecting. Taking an early 1-0 lead, the Giants exploded for eight runs in the top of the sixth: six straight hits, a three-run homer from Brandon Crawford, then two more hits to make it 9-0.  

It wasn't enough. Sean Manaea pitched five strong shutout innings,  but after he gave up a two-run homer in the bottom of the sixth, Gabe Kapler pulled him for John Brebbia-- who immediately committed a bonehead error and then gave up a three-run blast to Brenton Doyle. That made it 9-5, and amazon.com reported a sudden spike in worry-bead sales.  

Not to worry? The Giants answered smartly back in the seventh as Austin Slater and J.D. Davis quickly got on and Patrick Bailey drove them both in with a double. Colorado answered back with a run in the seventh off Tyler Rogers on a bizarre play at second base, but Luke Jackson pitched a scoreless eighth and with a five-run lead, Kapler evidently figured it was time for a nice low-risk show-of-confidence outing for the beleaguered Camilo Doval. 

Here's how that went: double, single, sacrifice fly, hit batsman, wild pitch to load the bases with one run already in. Then a gruesome error as Doval failed to field a ground ball toward first, a run scoring. Then a two-run single and a 11-10 game, and Taylor Rogers coming in to face who else? Charlie Blackmon, the series MVP, representing the winning run.  With a sense of dread hanging over every pitch, the lefthander got him on a line drive hit right to Thairo Estrada in short right field, and it was finally over, after three hours and seventeen minutes, a marathon under the new game-timing standards. 

The Road Ahead
Just a week ago, we figured this Arizona series would pit two teams with more-or-less the same record fighting for the same spot. But now Arizona has leaped ahead of everyone into the second wild-card position (albeit by half a game), while Chicago is down in the pit brawling with the rest of us. This doesn't change the Giants' perspective at all: they have to win both games because Miami doesn't seem to be able to lose to anyone, let alone a bad team like the Mets, at home, and the Cubs are also at home facing 70-80 Pittsburgh. What's changed about all this is that the Giants could sweep Arizona and still not improve their standing much. They'd still trail the cursed Snakes by half a game, and while they might pass the Reds (who host first-place and ready-to-clinch Minnesota), there's no certainty they'd gain any ground at all on Miami or Chicago.  

But it doesn't matter. there's no choice. "Just win, baby."  After this it's four games at Dodger Stadium before the final homestand against San Diego and LA. We recently posited that a good Colorado series would keep the Giants in good shape even with a .500 finish in those last ten games. Now a sweep in Arizona and 7-5 finish leaves them at 83-79, and that will not do it. The only thing that can be decided in this desert series is whether the Giants will still even be in the race when it's over.

Notes
Was Crawford's home run yesterday the last of his storied career? It could be... Logan Webb leads all of MLB in innings pitched. Zac Gallen, whom the Giants face tomorrow night, is second... Webb is also fifth in WHIP and 9th in ERA... Doval is still third in saves with 37 despite having blown 8. The leader, Cleveland's Emmanuel Clase, has blown 11-- and the Guardians have a 72-78 record... The only Giant anywhere near the league lead in batting categories is LaMonte Wade, 12th in OBP and 18th in walks... Wilmer Flores would be tied for 10th in OPS if he had enough PAs to qualify; he's about 100 short... Carlos Correa, whom the Giants attempted to sign over the off-season, leads the world with 30 GIDP. 

Saturday, September 16, 2023

                                 W    L    GB                                                     
Philadelphia        80 67 Now over .500 in road games
Chicago                78 70         Lost third straight to West teams

Arizona                77 72   Took early lead and held on 
Cincinnati         77 72    Their closer got the save
Miami                 76 72 0.5  Eight wins above projected
GIANTS                75 72  1 Everything right is wrong again

Yesterday
Giants lost at Colorado, 3-2, as Camilo Doval blew his eighth save.
Arizona defeated Chicago, Cincinnati defeated New York, and Miami defeated Atlanta, all of them gaining a full game on the Giants. Philadelphia extended their lead over Chicago by defeating the Cardinals in St Louis.

Today
Giants try to pick up the pieces at Colorado, and the good news (good news?) is they have two games to do it.  A daytime start (noon local, 3 EDT) for the makeup game from Thursday, with rookie Keaton Winn starting. Sean Manaea is slated to start the evening game (5 PM local, 8 PM EDT).  
Arizona hosts the Cubs, Cincinnati is at New York, and Miami has the Braves at home. Philadelphia is at St Louis. 

Last Night's Game
You know that Violent Femmes song, "Nightmares?" That was the bottom of the ninth at Coors Field, all right.  Not that the rest of the game was some kind of "sunshine daydream." It was just plain weird, with the Giants being no-hit through eight innings by Chase Anderson, the same guy they wasted just a week ago at Oracle, yet leading 1-0 by virtue of five walks and a couple of those old-fashioned "productive outs."  Logan Webb was masterful through seven, working with no margin for error, allowing just two hits while striking out six. But in the eighth he surrendered a leadoff double and, one out later, the tying run on Ezequiel Tovar's RBI single.

With "No-Hit Anderson" finally out of there, the Giants pounced on Nick Mears in the top of the ninth. J.D. Davis hit his own leadoff double to break up the no-hit business, LaMonte Wade walked with one out, Patrick Bailey singled  through second to load the bases, and Wilmer Flores came in to pinch-hit. "Old Reliable" worked a bases-loaded walk to bring in Davis, untie it, and chase Mears from the game.  That set it all up for Doval and his 38th save... attempt, that is.  It fell apart with shocking suddenness. Charlie Blackmon, this decade's answer to Steve Finley, opened with the game's third straight leadoff double. Doval got Kris Bryant on a grounder that held Blackmon at second, but then walked Nolen Jones to put the winning run on base. It also set up a potential game-ending double play, but Elehuris Montero wasn't playing. He singled to left and Mike Yastrzemski's throw, intended to cut down Blackmon at the plate, went wild and ricocheted away as Jones, who never stopped running, came all the way around to score. The Giants appealed Blackmon's slide at the plate, hoping to uncover a rules violation, but no dice. 

Doval has blown eight saves. Recall that when Santiago Casilla blew his sixth save back in 2016, fans were ready to burn him in effigy and Bruce Bochy himself lost confidence in his closer, to which anyone who remembers that gruesome Game Four of the NLDS will attest.  Will Gabe Kapler similarly flinch the next time a critical (and they're all critical now) save situation looms? We think not, for better or for worse.