The Giants finished 12-4 and 20-13, which is generally a positive sign for the upcoming season. In this case, though, it's really hard to tell, because perhaps no more than half this team may return in 2023.
What happened, anyway? How did a team that won 107 games last year fall 26 off the mark this year, instead of the 13 or so most of us expected? Given that the Giants, admittedly losing one essential player, basically stood pat, exchanging one ace (Kevin Gausman) for another (Carlos Rodon), how did things go so bad so soon? Can a team built around a core of versatile Gabe Kapler-type players really win, or was 2021 a complete fluke?
It wasn't a fluke at all. It was a team composed of the same kind of guys (mostly the same guys) we had this year, but also with three All-Stars having All-Star seasons-- Buster Posey (20 Win Shares), Brandon Crawford (31), and Brandon Belt (17). That's a total of 68, or about 23 wins. This year? No Posey, of course, and Crawford dropped to 11 and Belt to 4 in limited duty. That's 15 total, 5 wins. So eighteen wins contributed by the big boys in 2021 disappeared this season. And then we have a beleaguered bullpen that went from 4 wins above average in 2021 to negative-2 this year. That's 22 wins. (We can also note that Kris Bryant, in 51 games last year, contributed about 7 Win Shares, a rate of 21 over a full season.) The ripple effect of all this saw the Giants below average (WAA) at every position this year except starting pitching.
We saw it in 2010, 2012, and 2014: a team of "jabronis", as one fan remarked, can win if that team is supported by two or three big bats and a solid pitching staff. The Giants' failure to contend, to win the 90 or so games we all expected, can be attributed to the belief, or the hope, that Crawford, Belt, and the bullpen would do it again.
It's human nature to stand pat when surrounded by success. It's a deadly mistake in baseball. One thing the consistently strong teams-- Dodgers, Astros, Braves-- do is use a successful season as motivation to improve.
What must the Giants do to improve? First is to prune the roster, perhaps ruthlessly. We can expect Logan Webb, Joey Bart, Thairo Estrada, J.D. Davis, LaMonte Wade, Wilmer Flores, Alex Cobb, Alex Wood, and Camilo Doval to return. Anthony DeSclafani will be back, presuming he's fully recovered, but will he be effective? Austin Slater and Luis Gonzalez should return, and both Kapler and Farhan Zaidi have indicated Mike Yastrzemski will have one more year. Brandon Crawford, still the "face of the franchise," will be in his last contract year. September callup David Villar (4 WS, 9 HR in 52 games) definitely deserves a chance to start.
Anyone else has to be on the margin. Likely some of the relievers who came up late in the year will get a chance. Looking down the list of players, our focus, and, we hope, the Giants' focus, is on players 26 years old or younger. Heliot Ramos, Sean Hjelle, Kyle Harrison... it's their time.
As for signing "big" free agents, well, one top-quality starter will be needed to replace Rodon, who is likely to opt out (not that he himself couldn't be that top guy, for considerably more money). And with the infield and outfield up for grabs everywhere, finding one guy who can hit, one guy who can strike fear into the opposition, is a necessity. Each year the Giants have done exceptionally well, they've had that one guy, even if he's come in under the radar (Aubrey Huff in 2010, Crawford last year). Aaron Judge, coming off his historic season, is that kind of player. Just an example... right?
Logan Webb won 15 games this year, and Rodon 14. The team was 18-14 in Webb's starts, 16-15 with Rodon, 10-18 with Cobb, 12-14 with Wood, and 10-7 with Jakob Junis. They were also 8-4 with "openers," which seems surprising. Quality starts: Rodon 25 (out of 31 starts), Webb 21, Wood 16, Cobb 14, Junis 10. The best start of the year was Rodon on July 9 at San Diego, game score 87. The worst was also Rodon, back on May 15 in St Louis, a game score of 11.
Cheap wins: Cobb 2, Wood 2, Junis, and Webb. Tough losses: Rodon 4, Wood 4, Cobb 2, Webb, Junis. The toughest loss was Cobb's on July 29 at home against the Cubs: game score 72 in a 4-2 loss. He pitched a three-hitter over six innings but the Giants, who stranded 13 runners, didn't score until the bottom of the ninth after the bullpen had surrendered three more runs. The Giants' season in microcosm? Cobb also had the cheapest win, just last week over Arizona at home in a 10-4 romp (game score 37).
The Giants averaged 4.42 runs per game in 2022, seventh in the league, not nearly as bad as we might have guessed. Though Alex Cobb appeared to pitch in tough luck all year, he got team-average run support in his 28 starts. Junis (5 runs per game in 17 starts) and Webb (4.8 in 32 starts) also got good support, Wood, in 26, was just below average, but Carlos Rodon received slightly less than 4, well below league average. Given his 14 wins, 2.88 ERA, 237 strikeouts,, and 1.02 WHIP, he really had a terrific season. If he leaves, it's imperative the Giants sign a successor of similar quality.
The Giants were 10-9 in Blowouts this year, and 22-27 in one-run games. They were 14-19 in Pitchers' Duels, and 7-1 in their few Slugfests. In eleven extra-inning games they were 6-5.
The stat sheets show that the Giants were 44-37 at home, and the inverse on the road. In 70 day games they were 37-33 (44-48 at night). They were 21-15 in day games at home, 23-22 in home night games.
The Giants' best days were Sundays, when they went 17-9. They were 14-12 on Tuesdays and Saturdays, 10-9 on Mondays, but 12-13 on Fridays, and 11-14 on Wednesdays. Thursdays were their kryptonite-- an execrable 3-12 including a doubleheader sweep. Take Thursday off and they're 78-69, .530, a 86-win pace. Yikes!
Roll the Statistical Parade
Joc Pederson is the only Giant among the league's top 20 in OPS (.874, 16th). Of the other five Giants with more than 300 AB, only two (Wilmer Flores and Thairo Estrada) were over .700. Then we have Austin Slater (.774 in 277 AB) and Evan Longoria (.766 in 266). J.D. Davis was a robust .857 in 137 AB, Jason Vosler is at .811 in 98, and Villar .786 in 156. Joc is tied for 24th in the NL with his team-leading 23 homers. Flores led the Giants with 72 RBI and Yaz was tops in runs scored with 73, despite a .305 OBP. He also struck out 141 times, by far the most on the team, and tied for 17th in the league with some major studs (Paul Goldschmidt, Max Muncy, Bryan Reynolds). To be fair, Yaz also led the team in walks with 61. The Giants overall were fourth in the NL in walks, but 12th in batting average.
Estrada, Gonzales, and Yaz together were an excellent 43-for-52 in stolen bases. The whole team was a solid 80% (64 for 80) in steals, better than a lot of teams who stole more and also had more caught.
Giants pitchers were 13th in the league in ERA, with modest totals in strikeouts and walks. They were fourth in hits allowed. Webb was tied for fifth, and Rodon for ninth, in wins, and they were seventh and sixth in ERA, respectively. Rodon was second, behind Milwaukee's Corbin Burnes, in strikeouts with 237, and ninth with a 1.03 WHIP. Webb's 192.1 innings pitched were seventh. Camilo Doval was sixth in saves with 27 in 30 opportunities to go with his fine 2.53 ERA.
Will this be the year Paul Goldschmidt finally wins the MVP award? A triple crown candidate all year long, he finished third in average, fifth in homers, second in RBI, and tops in the league with a .982 OPS. Teammate Nolen Arenado, the Braves' Austin Riley and Matt Olson, Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor of the Mets, and the Dodgers' Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman provide stiff competition. "Goldy" has been among the league's best players for a full decade, he's never won it, and we think it's time... Aaron Judge, with 62 homers, will win the AL award in a breeze... Rodon and Webb will get Cy Young Award votes, but it's likely to be Sandy Alacantara of the Marlins, our nemesis Julio Urias of LA, or the Braves' Max Fried who gets it... What do you make of ex-Giant lefthander Tyler Anderson and his 15-5, 2.57 campaign with LA?... There is a host of AL candidates, but Justin Verlander, back to being unhittable after TJS as if nothing happened, and Shohei Ohtani are the big names. We think Ohtani, truly one of a kind, is always a MVP candidate but figure he's unlikely ever to get the CYA... By the way, Ohtani was second in MLB with 14 wild pitches... Three guys who may be important in the playoffs, Houston's Framber Valdez, Atlanta's Kyle Wright, and the Cardinals' Dakota Hudson, induced 25 ground-ball double plays, best in the business... Valdez gets more ground balls than anybody, and our own Logan Webb is second... Rodon's on the other side, the second-most fly-ball-heavy pitcher in MLB behind only Cleveland's Triston McKenzie, who despite his 11-11 record is another Cy Young candidate... The Braves' Riley was second only to Judge in extra-base hits; among those tied for third are Mookie Betts and the inevitable Jose Ramirez. We're glad to see him back in form and we're glad to see his team in the postseason... Young Vladimir Guerrero grounded into 26 double plays and, like his dad, he rarely walks. But 35 doubles and 32 homers will do very nicely. Oddly, he didn't hit a triple this year, and if he would walk a little more he'd score more than 90 runs... Speaking of triples, the Indians' -- whoops, Guardians'-- shortstop, Amed Rosario, led the MLB with only nine... The top two base stealers are both Orioles: Jorge Mateo and Cedric Mullens, a combined 69-for 88. Best of the lot is St Louis' Tommy Edman, third in baseball with 32 and caught only 3 times... We finally found a flaw in Ohtani's game! He's 11-for-20 in stolen bases. Just stay put, big fella... Ramirez and Arenado put the ball in the air more frequently than anyone else. Oddly, Judge is not in the top 30 despite all the home runs. He's a complete hitter, not a one-dimensional guy... Christian "What Happened?" Yelich has the highest ground-ball rate, and he slugged only .383... Anthony Rizzo, now with the Yankees, still leans into pitches at an alarming rate, but the Met's Mark Canha led everyone with 28 hit-by-pitch... Pay attention if Canha bats against the Braves' Charlie Morton later in the postseason. Morton hit 18 batters this year, second to the Reds' Nick Lodolo (19)... No less than six major-leaguers qualified for our favorite stat this year-- more walks than strikeouts. Juan Soto led 'em all with 135 walks against 96 K. The other qualifiers are the Rays' Yandy Diaz, Minnesota's Luis Arraez, Houston's Alex Bregman, Alejandro Kirk of Toronto, and Cleveland's Steve Kwan. All but one of those guys are going to the playoffs.
