Final National League West Division Standings
W L GB
Los Angeles 100 62 Braves are better, but not by much
Arizona 84 78 16 Still don't see them as legit contenders
San Diego 82 80 18 Ended lost season with winning record
GIANTS 79 83 21 Kapler pays the price for collapse
Colorado 59 103 41 Is there any hope here?
We're not going to speculate about the next Giants manager. Maria Guardado has a long list of potential candidates here: https://www.mlb.com/giants/news/possible-options-for-giants-manager-position
We are going to note that the greatest shortstop in San Francisco Giants history bid farewell to the fans yesterday, in the season finale attended by almost 39,000 people. Brandon Crawford took the field at short to open the game as the cheers rolled across the ballpark. He batted leadoff, a class move by interim manager Kai Correa, and received another ovation in the bottom of the first. In the ninth, Marco Luciano trotted out to relieve Crawford at short, and the Bay Area boy who once dreamed of playing for the Giants one day took his last bow on this, his last day, closing out a memorable career. There's fine video of it all on the team website. In his characteristic low-key, no-BS manner, Crawford thanked the fans, his teammates, and the Giants organization for a career and an indelible style of play that marks him as one of the greats. The Wall of Fame is sure be graced by a "35" not long from now.
Brandon Crawford walks away with class and dignity from a team that is likely to see many more departures this offseason. The only reason there might not be a wholesale exodus of veterans is that curse visited upon the game by the MLBPA, arbitration. More than anything else, arbitration encourages, if not guarantees, friction and animosity between player and team as each assembles dossiers to prove why the other is shortsighted, clueless, and wrong. Many players thus sign early to avoid the process altogether. Mike Yastrzemski, Austin Slater, Thairo Estrada, J.D. Davis, LaMonte Wade, and Tyler Rogers are all arbitration-eligible this year. What does a rebuilding team do in this situation? Some of these guys, we expect, still have team value going forward, but at what cost? None deserve a long-term contract.
The only Giants player whom we are certain has a full-time position in the field for 2024 is Patrick Bailey. Every other position is up for grabs. We could see Casey Schmitt at third, Marco Luciano at short, and Luis Matos, Wade Meckler, and Tyler Fitzgerald in the outfield, with Blake Sabol always around somewhere. Kyle Harrison and Tristan Beck may well join Logan Webb in the starting rotation. Of the veterans, we see Estrada, Wade, Davis, and Wilmer Flores as regulars and semi-regulars, including the DH. Flores and Wade as a platoon at first base might make sense.
Extended contracts the 2024 Giants will carry include those of Michael Conforto, Mitch Haniger, and Anthony DeSclafani, the last of which the team may have to consider an unrecoverable sunken cost. Conforto will almost certainly exercise his option to stay; nobody will offer him $18 million based on this season. Both he and Haniger have the capability to bring real value if limited to about 100 games each, which will give ample playing time to the youngsters. Speaking of youngsters, the one Giant certain to get a fat raise is Camilo Doval, who led the NL in saves, nailing down his 39th on Saturday. (39 is just about half of the Giants' total wins.) He's currently making $735,000 on a contract that expires in a month. .
And the Giants certainly will pursue Shohei Ohtani, even given his injury situation, and they will be fighting multiple suitors, especially the Dodgers. Cody Bellinger, after his huge bounce-back season with the Cubs, is only 29 and about to get mega-rich. The Giants will pursue him, too, and may have a better shot than anyone given the focus on Ohtani. Other than these, this year's free-agent market for big bats is pretty thin. Regardless, we believe the Giants' main focus ought to be, indeed must be, on reliable starting pitchers. Yes, Harrison and Beck have promise, and Sean Manaea finished well, but at least one "rotation anchor" is needed, a guy with proven track record of solid pitching and, perhaps most important, durability. And two would be even better. There are a lot of possibilities.
Those include Blake Snell, Mike Clevinger, Sonny Gray, Andrew Heaney, Michael Lorenzen, Seth Lugo, Kenta Maeda, Tyler Mahle, Jordan Montgomery, Aaron Nola, Martin Perez, Eduardo Rodriguez, Marcus Stroman, and Michael Wacha. Vince Velasquez, James Paxton, and Frankie Montas have shown good stuff but are also dogged by repeated injuries, something the Giants have seen to much of already. And the best of the lot, Julio Urias of the Dodgers, is in legal limbo.
You'd think at least one or two of those guys would be a good fit. With youth predominating in the field, solid veteran pitching is essential. Successful Giants teams have been built around strong starting pitching, a solid bullpen, and league-average offense. Of those three areas, starting pitching was the biggest issue in 2023; does anyone really think Kapler used "openers" and ran the bullpen to exhaustion because he wanted to?
Well, the Giants scored more runs in 2023 than did the New York Yankees, and that's about it for the good news. Overall the Giants were 24th in MLB with 674 runs, well below the league average. The top five teams are all playoff teams; only the Cubs and Reds among non-playoff teams cracked the top ten. The Miami Marlins, who got hot in the last two weeks, eliminated the Cubs and Reds, and took the second wild-card away from Arizona, scored only 668, less than the Giants. They and the Diamondbacks are the only teams to enter the postseason with negative run differential. The Cubs, especially, must be wondering what happened. They finished 96 runs to the good, better than the division-winning Brewers-- and seven games off their expected record.
Milwaukee does have the best team ERA in baseball, while the Giants are 11th, better than the Phillies, Dodgers, Braves, and Marlins. You may be wondering why we're on such a rant about improving the pitching if our pitchers are better than most of the big boys. Two things: first, the Giants' pitching was much stronger before the All=Star break than after, and second, eleventh isn't good enough. Until proven otherwise this is a pitching-driven team that needs to be in the top five at least, given the offense will at best come in no better than league average.
Wins Above Average tells a similar story. The Giants were 22nd overall; ninth in pitching and 25th in the field and at bat. Their only positive position was first base; their worst was the outfield, combined. Overall they were 8 wins below average, which suggests Kapler brought them in with a few wins better than they deserved.
The only Giant anywhere near the league lead in any offensive category was LaMonte Wade. His .373 OBP was 13th, just behind Adley Rutschmann and just ahead of Christian Yelich. His .790 OPS tied for 56th (with Bryan Reynolds and just ahead of Randy Arozarena). Wade also led the Giants in runs scored; he really did have a good year and deserves a chance to do it again in 2024. Another favorite is Wilmer Flores, whose .864 OPS would have been 13th if he'd had a few more plate appearances. His 23 homers. best on the club, tied for 62nd. Most of his HR peers had many more ABs, although the Cubs' Patrick Wisdom hit 23 in only 268 ABs. (Wisdom also batted .205 with a .289 OBP.)
As has been noted elsewhere, Logan Webb led all major-league pitchers with 216 innings pitched. His 1.07 WHIP was sixth in MLB; Gerrit Cole, whose Yankees likewise endured a terribly disappointing season, led with a 0.98 (and also finished 15-4). Webb is also tenth in ERA. And he walked only 31 men in his 216 innings; 158 pitchers walked more in fewer.
Only the Cleveland Guardians' Emmanuel Clase saved more games than Doval's 39. Doval's ERA, K/9 and WHIP were right in line with the top closers'.
Roll the Statistical Parade
Ohtani's 1.066 OPS leads the majors, and 44 homers in 497 at-bats is sensational. He will probably win the AL MVP despite finishing the season on the IL. Corey Seager had a huge year for Texas but also missed 40 games. Tampa's Yandy Diaz was great, too, but missed 25 games himself. In the NL, it likely comes down to Freddie Freeman (59 doubles, 131 runs, .410 OBP) and his rival, Atlanta's Ronald Acuna, who was a little better (a MLB-leading 149 runs, .337 average and .416 OBP, 41 homers, 106 RBI). Acuna also plays right field, which may give him the edge. These guys are so good that monsters such as Mookie Betts, Bellinger, Bo Bichette, Bryce Harper, Juan Soto, and Matt Olson (tops with 54 homers) will likely count as also-rans despite their terrific numbers. Watch out for Milwaukee catcher William Contreras and for the overachieving Miami Marlins' Luis Arraez, whose .354 average led MLB.
Kansas City's Bobby Witt jnr and Arizona's Rookie of the Year shoo-in Corbin Carroll were the only major leaguers to top 10 triples; Ohtani had 8 to go with his 44 homers. And Juan Soto again deserves his own award: 132 walks against 126 strikeouts. Bravo! Kyle Schwarber of the Phillies is the Three-True-Outcome poster boy: 47 homers, 215 strikeouts, 126 walks, a .197 average and .343 OBP.
Although Acuna led MLB with 73 stolen bases, the champion base-stealers are Carroll, with 54 out of 59, and Washington's good young shortstop, C.J. Abrams (47 of 51). And may we present our old friend Trea Turner, of the playoff-bound Phillies, who swiped 30 without being caught once. He also hit 26 homers and scored 102 runs. He needs to walk more; with that lineup he might score 150 if he doubles his 45 walks.
Atlanta's Spencer Strider is the majors' only 20-game winner for 2023; he didn't complete a game but that 13.55 K/9 ratio tells the tale. He faced the Giants twice and won both games, allowing one earned run. The Braves won 104 games and two of his teammates had better ERAs, but he led MLB in strikeouts with 281 and we wouldn't be surprised to see him win the Cy Young Award. This is one time where a gaudy win total just might be the indicator. Blake Snell, whom we dearly want to see in a Giants uniform in 2024, led the MLB with a 2.25 ERA while winning 14. His 11.7 K/W is impressive, though he does walk people (99 in 186 IP). Sonny Gray's another one; 2.79 ERA despite his 8-8 mark and average K ratio, and he doesn't walk people. We'll set time aside to watch him in the playoffs. Gerritt Cole, the Orioles' Kyle Bradish, and the Rays' Zach Eflin are all AL CYA contenders. Justin Verlander quietly had a fine year at age 40, as did Clayton Kershaw at 35, and Toronto's Chris Bassitt, recently freed from the A's and Mets, had a strong year along with our old friend, his teammate Kevin Gausman. Doval and Clase are sure to get some votes, too.
One of our favorites, Tim Anderson, turned 30 this year and celebrated with his first really poor season: a .245 average for this consistent .300 hitter, and since he doesn't walk his OBP was a gruesome .286. He's a free agent with a team option for 2024; at $5 million per year we have to figure the White Sox will go for it, expecting a bounce-back season. We saw him play this past May at the new Comiskey Park, and we wouldn't mind seeing him play 81 games at Oracle Park-- if 2023 was a career aberration and not a new trend.
Ohtani and Cleveland's perennial stud Jose Ramirez led everyone with 21 and 22 intentional walks. The Reds' Sam Moll, the Angels' Jaime Berria, and our own Camilo Doval issued the most IBBs; the leaders in this category are all relievers. Dylan Cease of the White Sox and the Mets' fine righthander Kodai Senga led everyone with 14 wild pitches; Blake Snell also slung 13 balls to the backstop. Doval had 10 himself, and we remember more than a few of 'em; another reliever with a tendency to wildness was Seattle's Matt Brash.
Snell was, by measure, the wildest pitcher in baseball (highest BB/IP), but he's in good company at the top with Charlie Morton, Senga, Merrill Kelly of Arizona, and the Phillies' 15-game winner Tajuan Walker. On the other side only George Kirby of Seattle and Zach Eflin had better control ratios than our own Logan Webb. Webb also forced 30 ground-ball double plays to lead MLB; he's the top ground-ball pitcher in the game. Houston's Cristian Javier is his opposite number with three fly balls to every grounder.
Oakland's J.P. Sears hit 16 batters, more than anyone. We looked for the familiar name of Anthony Rizzo atop the hit-by-the-pitch leaderboard, but then realized he played only 99 games. Our champion is Seattle's Ty France. Modest numbers everywhere else-- but hit by the pitch 34 times! Runner-up Pete Alonso of the Mets had only 21.
The Toronto Blue Jays must know what they're doing. Matt Chapman, in 581 at-bats, grounded into 4 double plays, and Cavan Biggio, son of Hall-of-Famer Craig Biggio, batted 289 times without grounding into one. Then in Minnesota we have Carlos Correa, pursued by the Giants in the off-season, who grounded into 30, worst in MLB, in the midst of a truly lousy season. All three of these guys are in the playoffs.
It seems to us the Giants scored a lot of runs on the sacrifice fly this season, and if they sign Cody Bellinger there may be a lot more. He tied with the Dodgers' Will Smith for the lead with 12.
The Postseason
It all kicks off tomorrow with Game One of the four wild-card series. Milwaukee hosts the Arizona Diamondbacks for three, while the red-hot Marlins are at Philadelphia. In the American League, the Houston Astros took the AL West division away from Bruce Bochy's Texas Rangers on the last day of the season, and thus earned a first-round bye. The Rangers now go Tampa Bay to face the Rays, who lost a spirited battle with the Baltimore Orioles for the AL East title but still finished with the second-best record in the league. The other AL series has Minnesota hosting the Toronto Blue Jays for three. Starting pitchers for all the games have not been announced as of this hour.
All these games will be played on consecutive days, Tuesday through Thursday, with no travel days, as all the series are played exclusively on the higher-seeded team's home field. We visited Target Field and American Family Field this year and enjoyed both ballparks, particularly Milwaukee's. Of course some of that may be due to the Giants winning three of four in that ballpark during our visit!
