It ain't pretty, sports fans. Less than three weeks ago the Giants were at 37-27 and solidly in place as the NL's second wild-card candidates. Since then they've hit a 3-11 tailspin and they're trailing not only San Diego but Atlanta, St Louis and Philadelphia, with Miami coming up on the outside. A storyline a few days ago raised the question of whether the Giants, coming off a 107-win season, might be sellers at the upcoming trade deadline, perish the thought.
That's unlikely to happen. Even slouching along barely above .500, or at or slightly below .500, the Giants will remain in contention for a wild-card spot. As long as that's the case, they won't sell. And another reason is, who, exactly, would they sell, or could they sell?
It maybe don't look like it, but the Giants' strong suit so far this year has been starting pitching. Their top three players at any position, by WAR, are Carlos Rodon, Logan Webb, and IL denizen Jakob Junis. Alex Wood and Alex Cobb have been less effective, working at about league average, but overall the Giants' starters rank fifth in the league in Wins Above Average (+3), ahead of the Mets, Cardinals, Padres, and Brewers. That the rotation hasn't looked especially effective for much of the year is due more to a terribly inconsistent offense than it is to the starters' performance.
It's hard not to draw the conclusion that five veterans-- Brandon Crawford, Brandon Belt, Darin Ruf, Evan Longoria, and Tommy LaStella-- are dragging the Giants down. The club is in the bottom five in WAA at first base, shortstop, and third base, and both offensive and defensive metrics are down at those positions. Way down. The Giants invested 108 at-bats on Joey Bart's .596 OPS and Curt Casali, a career backup, is the starting catcher, though he is doing reasonably well.
There just really isn't a lot going on with this offense; Mike Yastrzemski remains the most valuable Giant in the lineup, with Casali second. They're the only ones with positive numbers on both sides of the ball. Joc Pederson is the team's best hitter, but he doesn't play full time. Austin Slater and Luis Gonzalez have been generally solid as role players, and would be a lot more so in a balanced offense that wasn't carrying two or three automatic outs. Note that rookie David Villar, in one game, has already posted more runs above average than six Giants regulars. Overall the Giants' position players rank 12th in the 15-team league, 4 wins below average.
The bullpen numbers are equally depressing. Using the adjusted pitching WAA which favors relievers, the Giants' two best out of the 'pen are Kervin Castro and Yunior Marte-- both currently pitching at Sacramento. Camilo Doval, the one for-sure keeper, has posted a 0.8 WAR already despite some late-inning struggles. But get this-- three Giants position players rank higher on this chart than everyone else in the bullpen. At the bottom are Jake McGee and Tyler Rogers, who have been genuinely awful and can't be trusted with late-inning leads any more. Thanks mostly to Doval, the Giants' relievers rank ninth, out of fifteen, in WAA. A few good pitchers are keeping San Francisco on the fringes of contention.
Brandon Belt, 34, hit 29 homers last year, his career high. He's at .687 OPS with an anemic .352 SLG. His contract is up this year. Brandon Crawford, 35, had 31 Win Shares last year and could have been the MVP. He's at .663 OPS, .350 SLG, and he has one year left on his contract. Evan Longoria, 36, to his credit has been walking more and hitting for decent power of late, boosting his OPS over .800, but he too will be gone after this year. It's the first week of July, the halfway point. The All-Star break is late this year, two weeks away, but it's already past time to face facts and realize how unlikely it is that these guys are going to suddenly "turn it around" in 2022.
So what do Gabe Kapler, Scott Harris, and Farhan Zaidi do about all this? There has been talk regarding Juan Soto, the Washington Nationals' brilliant young-- young! 23 years old!-- outfielder, who may be the best player in the game, on a last-place team. There's been talk about the Cubs' catcher Willson Contreras, who is not young but who's having a terrific season on another team going nowhere. This is his pre--free-agency year and the Giants have a crying need at the position. Would they trade, say, Heliot Ramos or Sean Hjelle for Contreras? Probably not unless they were convinced they could sign him for 2023 and beyond... but they might trade Bart even for a possible rental.
None of this is what we wanted to write today, or any day. In our more reflective moments we've noted that the Giants, this year, are about where we expected them to be last year. But 107 wins has a way of skewing the expectations, and the last two weeks have had a way of skewering those expectations. The Giants will be going to San Diego, and hosting Milwaukee, before the break. Let's see what this team looks like two weeks from today.
