Bum Voyage

It's not terribly surprising that Madison Bumgarner has cashed in with a new team. The Giants, after all, have rather loudly turned a page, and while they'd have loved to have kept him, a team focused on rebuilding doesn't get into a bidding war on a veteran, no matter who he is. With Bruce Bochy, the only major-league manager he's ever known, having retired, with new faces in the front office, with the realization that the next World Series in San Francisco, if it comes, will be closer to the end of any five-year deal than to the beginning of it, "Bum" had every reason to move on. 

Over the years, only a few homegrown Giants stars have departed the orange and black for the greener pastures of free agency. Gary Matthews, back in 1977, was the first. Will Clark famously left in the wake of a 103-win season in 1994 after Texas offered a then-unprecedented five-year deal. That one probably hurt the most, more than Jeff Kent bailing after the 2002 World Series-- Kent, after all, had not been a career Giant. Pablo Sandoval's exit after 2014 was the most recent, and unlike the other guys, his career tanked after leaving San Francisco (and only began to recover after he returned, hat in hand).   

Perhaps "Bum's" exit is especially poignant for us because it's so different from how Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain, the two great Giants pitchers he joined in 2010 and teamed with over the succeeding years, finished their careers. Matty, of course, stayed with the club his entire 13-year career and retired as a Giant. Timmy didn't do exactly the same, but like Matt he is and will be remembered as a Giant first and always.  On this cold morning in December, we like to think "Bum" ultimately will be remembered the same. 

Two weeks ago we wrote that if Madison Bumgarner never throws another pitch in Giants uniform, his legacy here is secure. That isn't going to change.  He leaves the Giants as the second-greatest pitcher in San Francisco history, behind only Juan Marichal. As we've noted on our history pages, the methods we've borrowed to measure long-term greatness are heavily weighted toward regular-season achievements. Bumgarner certainly has his share of those.

But we all know it's the postseason that sets "Bum" apart from the others-- not just the other Giants pitchers, but every other pitcher. He has made 14 postseason starts, far more than any other Giant. The team is 11-3 in those starts. Six-- six!-- of those fourteen are shutouts, three of them complete-game shutouts; it's hard to overstate how rare and valuable that is in this modern game.  Overall "Bum" has a 0.88 postseason WHIP with a 2.31 ERA. That stands up against anyone in the game today. 

But in the World Series? Here he stands alone, truly alone, at the top, the best of the best. Madison Bumgarner, in four World Series starts, is 4-0 with three shutouts. He has allowed one earned run in those four starts over 31 innings, for an all-time greatest World Series ERA of 0.29.  His World Series WHIP is 0.55 with a .129 batting average against, 27 strikeouts against five walks.

And, yeah, the greatest save in World Series history, too.

Maybe we really do need to revise our scoring method for all-time greatness.

And maybe we're being selfish and petty, but we've really no interest in seeing those epic, all-time, fantastic World Series numbers tarnished by a future appearance with another team. (Should they be enhanced by a future appearance with another team-- well, that's a possibility we'll visit another day, or not.)

So-- sorry about that, Bum. We do wish you well, within reason, that is. And if that's not enough, just remember, big guy-- we Giants fans loved you first and best.

Catching Up

No, this is not a cute sidebar about the Giants' plans for Buster Posey, Stephen Vogt, or Joey Bart. Nor have we any breaking news about Madison Bumgarner and the qualifying offer. If you've spent any time here at all, you know that "breaking news" is something we don't do; indeed, we tend to specialize in "broken news," as in "yesterday's headlines-- today!"

But the shotgun marriage between yesterday and today can be consummated through our annual report on how certain Giants are doing as they march along toward history. In other words, we've updated our "Greatest Giants Players" page with 2019 stats, so let's review  who stands where among the great.

Madison Bumgarner, he of the QO and free agency, is now the second-greatest San Francisco Giants pitcher of all time, the K2 to Juan Marichal's towering Mount Everest. Another workmanlike season-- lots of innings and strikeouts, not too many hits, walks, or runs-- vaulted "Bum" past Tim Lincecum and Gaylord Perry. He is now also the eighth-greatest San Francisco Giant of all time, and if he never throws another pitch in Giants uniform, his legacy here is secure.

Brandon Belt, everybody's favorite, has inched his way into the top-20 all-time list despite a thoroughly lackluster season; his eight years at first base tie Will Clark even if he's about half the player Will was.  And the man who spelled Belt at first, spelled Even Longoria at third, was the DH in American League parks, and generally made himself useful, Pablo Sandoval, has now tied for 20th as well. The "Panda" played in 108 games and put up 1.5 WAR and thus earns some Giants cred for the first time since 2014, though he's been around for the past three years.  He's another free agent and we'll see if this is it for him as well.

The other Brandon, Crawford, padded his lead as the premier San Francisco shortstop despite a forgettable season; he's now 18th on the all-time list and Jack Clark is within range.

Buster Posey, #5 San Francisco Giant, added little to his resume other than another year of service and great defense behind the plate. The top four are well ahead of him and all are in the Hall of Fame (or should be), and so will he be someday.

Of course we were sorry to see Joe Panik crash, burn, and get DFA'd at midseason; he gets credit for one more year of service, and leaves the Giants as our fifth-ranked second baseman.

Nobody else did much, though Will Smith increased his overall value by 133% in his All-Star season. It's tough on relievers who don't stay with the team a long time and don't get to pitch in the postseason.

And as we added a few new names to the master list, so too did we pare it down by removing guys who had no staying power. The only real regret was cutting Derek Holland, who did such stalwart work for the Giants in 2018 but couldn't even draw a trade offer this season.  He joins the likes of Chris Stratton, Mark Melancon, and Ty Blach, who quietly dropped off the radar this past year.

Nationals' Treasure

Congratulations to the Washington Nationals, World Series champions! During this entertaining World Series and the postseason series, the Nats more than a few times reminded us of our own Giants in their championship years, battling back against adversity, taking merciless advantage of late-inning pitching changes, and winning the World Series on the road.  And congratulations to former Giant Dave Martinez, manager of the world champions. Martinez, by trade an outfielder, stepped in to play first base in 1994 after the Giants realized they'd been unable to replace Will Clark. He wasn't Will, but he was well good enough to help the Giants back into contention before the strike and lockout ruined everything. Now 55, he outmaneuvered one of the best, Houston's A.J. Hinch, when it counted.

It was a Game Seven that should have been remembered for a great pitching performance by Zack Greinke, who over six near-perfect innings finally justified the Astros' Big Midseason Trade. But after Greinke opened the seventh by giving up a leadoff homer to the unsinkable Anthony Rendon and walking the amazing, just-turned-21 Juan Soto, manager Hinch pulled him in favor of ace reliever Will Harris. And we had immediate flashbacks to 2002 Game Six, Dusty Baker, Russ Ortiz, and Felix Rodriguez. Felix had worked all five games when he was summoned back then; Harris had worked four before last night's appearance, though only four innings. In any case, the result last night was not as ugly as it was back then, but it was equally emphatic: Harris gave up a game-changing two-run homer and Washington took the lead they'd never lose. Fittingly, Howie Kendrick, whose grand slam in the tenth inning of NLDS game five knocked the entire baseball universe off its axis and jump-started Washington's amazing post-season run, delivered the blow.

Greinke, both for his achievement and for the might-have beens, overshadowed Max Scherzer's gutsy five innings, over which he stranded ten runners while allowing only two to score,  Patrick Corbin's own trade-justifying three shutout innings, and Daniel Hudson and his perfect ninth. Add series MVP Stephen Strasburg's two wins-- both on the road, in Game Two to set the Astros into desperation mode, and in Game Six to halt Houston's just-regained momentum-- and the wild-card Nats had just enough to overcome the overpowering Gerrit Cole, the disappointing Justin Verlander, Game 4 hero Jose Urquidy, and, finally, Greinke. It was indeed a fight, and the Nationals finished it.

So Washington City gets its first world champion since 1924, and it's about time. This benighted franchise had never won a postseason series of any type, excepting only the abbreviated NL East playoff after the strike-shortened 1981 season, when they were the Montreal Expos and were managed by Dick Williams. Thirteen years later the Expos were 74-40, best in baseball, when the other strike was called, ruining that season. Montreal never recovered. Eleven years later they landed in Washington, at old RFK Stadium, which even the beloved Redskins had abandoned years before.

It was that September, in 2005, that a rookie named Ryan Zimmerman made his MLB debut for the newly-christened Nationals. For years he was the lone star on a bad team. Then he endured the disappointments of 2012, 2014, 2016, and 2017, when his team lost in the first round each time. He was in the dugout in October 2014 when former Giant Matt Williams made that ill-fated pitching change in the ninth inning of NLDS game two-- and was still in the dugout nine innings later when the Giants won that game in the 18th and doomed Washington to another postseason letdown.

Five years later, now 35 and the team's senior member, Ryan Zimmerman celebrated with his teammates in Houston, a world champion at last. As any Giants fan can testify: brother, it was worth the wait.

End of the Regular Season

Final National League West Standings

W L GB LA 106 56 -- Can they finally win a World Series? Arizona 85 77 21 Not bad at all for rebuilding ballclub. GIANTS 77 85 29 Flirted with contention for a month. Colorado 71 91 35 Far from third straight postseason. San Diego 70 92 36 Still haven't won since Boch managed.

That's seven straight National League West championships for those blasted Dodgers, which is now third all-time behind Atlanta (14, 1991-1993 and 1995-2005) and the Yankees (9, 1998-2006). Has any team ever gotten less out of such dominance? We're not trying to tweak the LA fans out there; it's just an odd fact of recent history that two teams (the Bobby Cox Braves and today's Dodgers) were so dominant they could win 21 straight division pennants between them, but with a grand total of one World Series championship-- so far. 

Well, let's get back to the Giants (winners of three World Series in five years despite only two division titles, mind you). For the first time since 2016, the San Francisco Giants played consistently winning baseball for an extended period of time. From June 30 through July 31, the day they decided not to trade Madison Bumgarner, the Giants went 20-6 (.769) with a 7-game winning streak as the centerpiece, climbed from 12 wins below .500 to two wins above it-- and pulled into second place in the division and within three games of the wild-card leaders.  No, it didn't last; both August and September yielded 11-16 records and the final month was devoted to a lot of new faces getting playing time as well as the growing groundswell of appreciation for Bruce Bochy that culminated in Sunday's love-fest.  That red-hot July was fueled by 15 road games (12-3) against only eleven at home (8-3), and as we pointed out earlier in the year, the Giants' home-field disadvantage did as much as anything, at least from a statistical perspective, to keep our boys on the bad side of .500 for a third straight year. 

So they may move the fences in a bit next season, to get the bullpens off the sideline and out of the field of play, but Larry Baer has already said he doesn't want to lose "Triples Alley," so any dimensional adjustments are likely to be modest. And remember that opponents averaged 4.6 runs per game at Oracle Park while the Giants managed a paltry 3.4. There's no guarantee that more homers and more runs for the orange and black will equate to more wins, since the other teams are likely to to receive the same anticipated benefit. There's also no guarantee that this weird home/road split was anything more than a one-year aberration-- generally these Giants, in good times as well as bad, have played better at home over recent years even with the current spacious dimensions.

Besides, the Giants' team ERA, 4.38, was ninth in the league, and all the teams finishing ahead of the Giants are considerably better (excepting Milwaukee and Philadelphia, right behind). For most of the year, the San Francisco starting rotation was Madison Bumgarner, Jeff Samardzija, and God-help-us; according to the "Wins Above Average" stat, only Pittsburgh got less from their starters-- and in case you were wondering, the Giants' minus-4 wins in this department equates precisely to their final record of 77-85, all by itself. The bullpen was outstanding by comparison even after the mid-season trades, finishing second-best in the league behind the Cubs. But the ongoing travails of rookies Beede, Anderson, and Webb, as well as the departed Drew Pomeranz and Derek Holland, and the mystifying Dereck Rodriguez, dragged even the yeoman work turned in by "Bum" and "Shark" far past the point of no return.

When you score only 3.4 runs per game at home and finish next-to-last in runs scored, though, it's hard to blame 77-85 on the pitchers. The Giants were below-average at every single position in the field except third base. The outfield was actually better than the stat shows, because of Mike Yastrzemski; he was switched between left and right so frequently that his statistical impact was diluted at both spots. At third, Evan Longoria had a better year in 2018 than in 2017 (not that that was too hard to do), recovering well on defense especially, and walking more. His numbers are still a long way from what they were in Tampa, and he's grossly overpaid, but he wasn't a weakness this year. Kevin Pillar, despite absolutely refusing to take a walk, led the club in just about everything: at-bats, hits, runs, RBI, doubles, and tied with Yaz for the team lead with 21 homers. "Longo" added 20, and so the San Francisco Giants had three players with 20 or more home runs for the first time since 2006. You can look it up.

The greatest disappointments this season were courtesy of Brandon Belt and the departed Joe Panik. After missing nearly half of the last two seasons with various injuries, a healthy Belt started 156 games, and we said as the season began that a healthy Belt would be the key to this offense. Indeed he was-- .239, .334, .403, well off his career averages, and for much of the season those numbers were a lot worse (he spent about half the year trying to reach .220). Drawing 86 walks and batting at or near the top of the order, he scored 76 runs, which tells us that when he got on base people were there to drive him in. (We'd expect few other .234 hitters scored anywhere near 76 runs.) But he simply didn't get on base often enough to lift the offense out of the miry clay, and he was the guy who needed to do just that. He has two more years on his contract and $34 million due him, and he'll be 32 in April. You can't trade that, and what are the chances he'll get back to, say, .275/.394/.478, as in 2016? We've been Belt defenders for years now; his defense saves runs, and he's been a very good on-base guy in the past. Right now, all he has left is defense. 

With a heavy heart, the Giants released Joe Panik and his .627 OPS over the summer; he did better after landing in Long Island with the Mets. But at the time, journeyman Donovan Solano was outplaying him, and rookie Mauricio Dubon (.754 in 28 games) may turn out to be a trade steal, considering he also enabled us to get rid of Drew Pomeranz. It was only four years ago that Joe Panik was a deserving All-Star, and it was he who made the signature defensive play of the 2014 World Series.  We wish him well playing in his hometown.

Getting back to Belt, and first base, the long-discussed option of moving Buster Posey from the rigors of catching to the relative ease of first base may have lost some of its luster. At the moment, the only skill keeping Buster at the center of this team is his outstanding play behind the plate. JT Realmuto is the unquestioned defensive king of the position right now, but Buster remains one of the best in the business. As a hitter, though... well, .688, with seven homers, 38 RBI, 43 runs,  and a .368 SLG-- can we really lay all this off on the physical toll of catching? He's never had an OPS below .741, not even last year when his hip was so bad he needed off-season surgery.  "Healthy", he played in 114 games, nine more than last year when he could barely walk.  Buster's a Hall of Famer, as we see it; he's the face of the franchise, he will never be traded, and he is still one of the league's best catchers. But he'll be 33 before the season starts, and if he hits like this at first base his numbers will be lower than Belt's. Consider Hall of Fame catcher Bob Boone, who after age 31 had one season above .700 OPS, catching 120-140 games a year for nine years.

Brandon Crawford is two months older than Buster, and while he remains a good shortstop, his OPS was even worse then Posey's. He drove in and scored more runs only because he played more games. This litany will sound familiar-- "Craw" is the greatest shortstop in San Francisco history, he is a popular face of the franchise, he has a no-trade clause, and he still has value in the field. On a team with some serious power-and average guys, he'd be a no-doubt-about-it asset. On a team that needs him to hit with authority-- well, the hard numbers show the Giants were a win below average at his position, and he's the only one there. He has two more years on his contract and $30 million coming due. Head-shaking time: neither Buster Posey nor Brandon Crawford were among the top 12 Giants in WAR. Who saw that coming? Stephen Vogt, as fine a  backup catcher as there is, and Sam Dyson, who left the club in July, outperformed both.

Now for some good news. The Giants' top position player was the miraculous Mr Yastrzemski, who has to be considered the starting left fielder for 2020. Kevin Pillar, who is arbitration eligible, delivered a lot for his relatively modest six million. Our bet is the Giants offer him a deal before the year is out, keeping mind he will be 31 in January but remains in excellent shape and may be the fastest man on a team that needs speed.  And we've been waving the flag for Austin Slater for three years now-- his average fell way off after a hot midseason start, but his walks, power, and defense are good. He's about to turn 27, he's cheap, and we hope he gets a chance to prove he can be more than a fourth outfielder in 2020. It'll likely be his last chance, if he gets it.  If the Giants sign a power-hitting outfielder, well...

The Giants jettisoned some $27 million in payroll, mostly owed to veteran pitchers, with a series of midseason trades. Another twelve million comes off the books, for now, as Madison Bumgarner's contract expires and he enters free agency. We've already noted that in our opinion both "Bum" and the Giants have shown an interest in keeping him here; the Giants by not pulling the trigger on a trade, Bumgarner by specifying only contenders on his no-trade list. At the same time, the 2020 Giants could well be a completely different ballclub with a new manager and Farhan Zaidi in his second year as GM; and other than Posey, Belt, and Crawford, few Giants remain from "Bum's" early years. He may feel that rather than "leaving home," it was "home" that left him with Bruce Bochy's retirement. In any case, the Giants' plans regarding their long-time ace will be a major point of discussion with any new managerial candidates. 

A best-case scenario sees Johnny Cueto returning to something resembling 2016 form next year, and Jeff Samardzija, who at 34 has one year left on his overinflated deal, managing one more season like he had in 2019. That still leaves two or three rotation spots wide open, and we have no idea whether any of the newcomers who tried their hand this year are ever going to become major-league starters. It wasn't that long ago that some were waxing hopeful about the likes of Ty Blach and Chris Stratton-- and Dereck Rodriguez.

Will Smith is a free agent. Will the Giants match the expectedly huge offers he'll get elsewhere? Tony Watson is also a free agent, with a player option for 2020; whether he exercises it probably depends on his health. With Reyes Moronta shut down for most of the upcoming year, that leaves the bullpen wide, wide open. The club will certainly hang on to Trevor Gott, now rehabilitating after surgery, and Sam Coonrod and Jandel Gustave looked pretty good in late, limited duty.


The Giants were 38-16 in one-run games this year, a .704 mark, but 6-17 in blowouts (7 run margin or more). Likewise, in pitchers' duels (a category that's becoming rarer as well as harder to define), they were 23-12. Slugfests were rare for this club, but they did well: 6-3 in nine contests. They were downright exceptional in extra-inning affairs, with a 13-3 mark. Six of those games were decided in the tenth, three in the eleventh, two in the 13th and 15th, and three others went 12, 16, and 18.

With all the five- and even four-inning starts these days, pitchers' W-L records are more and more unreliable for all but a few workhorse types. Bumgarner was 9-9, "Shark" 11-12; we are guessing those numbers don't mean much. Let's look at how the team did in games started by the various starters: 

Bumgarner 19-15, Samardzija, 17-15, Beede 11-11, Pomeranz 7-10, Anderson 9-7, Rodriguez 5-11,
Holland 1-6, Webb 4-4, Cueto 2-2, Menez 2-1, Suarez 0-2, "Opener," 0-1.

"Cheap wins" are becoming almost nonexistent these days; Jeff Samardzija had the only one for the Giants this year; he won on June 21 at Arizona, 11-5, despite a Game Score of 38. That was the day newly-arrived Alex Dickerson had 6 RBI.

Tough losses there were aplenty; 15 of them. "Bum" had six, Samardzija 3, D-Rod and the departed Derek Holland two each. Rookie Logan Webb and Pomeranz also suffered.

Bumgarner beat the Colorado Rockies three times, the only Giant to win that many against one team. He beat the Padres twice, as did Samardzija; "Shark" also beat Vince Velasquez of the Phillies twice in ten days. Rookie Beede, bless his heart, beat LA twice, but he also lost to fellow rookie Alex Young of Arizona twice.

Bumgarner had "issues" with the Dodgers; they beat him three times, the only team to beat him more than once. Drew Pomeranz, in his short stint with the Giants, was the epitome of democracy, losing once to ten different teams (including Baltimore!) '"D-Rod" lost to the Padres and Dodgers twice, and "Shark" lost a couple of tough ones to Washington.

Walker Buehler of the Dodgers and San Diego's Matt Lauer each beat the Giants three times this year.
Pitchers who beat the Giants twice include Hyun-Jin Ryu, German Marquez, Max Fried, Dakota Hudson, and two rookies from Arizona-- Merrill Kelly and Alex Young.

Seven pitchers lost twice to the Giants; Clayton Kershaw tops the list, along with Jon Gray and Chi-Chi Gonzalez of the Rockettes, San Diego's fine young southpaw Joey Lucchesi, Arizona's Taylor Clarke and Zack Godley, and the aforementioned Vince Velasquez.

Someday MLB will start to keep team inherited runners/scored statistics, and when they do, we'll publish them. We ain't going back to counting them every day.


Roll the Statistical Parade

Kevin Pillar tied for 8th in the league in doubles with 37. Brandon Belt is 10th with 83 walks. That's about it for Giants' hitters, though Buster Posey was, unhappily, fourth in the league with 18 ground-ball double play balls.  Had he enough at-bats to qualify, Mike Yastrzemski's .852 OPS and .518 SLG would both be in the league's top 15.

On the other side, the Giants as a team were fourth in the league, turning 143 DPs themselves, and their team DER was fifth in the NL. That's a significant improvement from a year ago. Posey threw out 33% of base stealers, better than most though far from Realmuto's otherworldly 47%.  Longoria showed fine range at third; his 15 errors were high but as much a product of his total chances as anything-- the top defensive third basemen were Nolen Arenado and Arizona's Eduardo Escobar. Crawford's range is still good at short, though he made twice as many errors as did Trevor Story in the same amount of innings. Meanwhile St Louis' young Paul DeJong made only 7 errors and turned 119 double plays. In the outfield, Kevin Pillar was third in range; we'd bet his five errors were on balls few other fielders could reach. Bryce Harper of the Phillies and San Diego's Hunter Renfroe, who used to be with the Phillies, tied for the lead among all outfielders with 13 assists.

Jeff Samardzija was 14th in the league with a 3.52 ERA; he was 10th with a 1.11 WHIP, just ahead of Madison (1.13) Bumgarner. "Shark" was 8th in homers allowed; "Bum" surrendered 30, a career high, exceeded only by Yu Darvish and Miami's Caleb Smith. No Giant was anywhere near the leaders in walks. Bumgarner's 4.7 K/W ratio was fourth-best in the NL, he's 12th in strikeouts, and trails only Stephen Strasburg-- who had the all-around breakout season so long expected, with 18-6, 3.32, 1.04 WHIP and 251 strikeouts-- in innings pitched.  Will Smith tied for third in the league with 34 saves and blew only 4; only Kirby Yates of San Diego did measurably better (41/44).

Christian Yelich remains the best player in the league, though Cody Bellinger will likely win the MVP. Yelich led the NL in OPS, SLG, OBP, and average. He's also the best base stealer: 30 for 32. That's how it's done!  The Mets' Pete Alonso's 53 home runs are a National League rookie record; he backed it up with 103 runs, 120 RBI, and .358 OBP, walking 72 times in 597 ABs. He's only 24! Cincinnati's Eugenio Suarez had his second great season in a row, yet somehow missed the All-Star game despite 49 homers and 103 RBI-- at third base. He'll take a walk, too. A total of 37 National Leaguers hit 30 or more home runs in 2019, though only nine hit over .300. Eighteen struck out more than 150 times; four exceeded 100 walks. We have to get 'way down on the list to find one player who walked more than he struck out: Washington's Asdrubal Cabrera, who in 124 at-bats walked 19 times and fanned only 18. For those of you scoring at home, our old friend Joe Panik, who's done it before, just missed: 37 BB, 43 K.

Strasburg's 18 wins were best in the league; we think he's got the inside track on the Cy Young Award that seems to go annually to teammate Max Scherzer. Steve's got the wins, Max the ERA, both have microscopic WHIP and both are right behind Jacob DeGrom in strikeouts. DeGrom won it a year ago, and with a 0.97 WHIP and 2.43 ERA probably had a better year this year. But, the voters having overlooked the traditional stats to award him a season ago, we see the pendulum swinging back and the top winner getting the prize in 2019. Hyun-Jin Ryu, Walker Buehler, and Clayton Kershaw were a combined 44-14 for LA and all had WHIP between 1.00 and 1.04, though only Buehler exceeded 200 K. Max Fried, 25,  and Mike Soroka, 22, lead the way for Atlanta, while Dakota Hudson and the venerable Adam Wainwright pace the Cardinals; all are among the league leaders. Milwaukee still has the scary Josh Hader and his 16.4 K/IP with 37 saves, but their starters appear to be the least among the NL's top five.

Over in the American League, Mike Trout did not hit .300, but led the league in OPS, SLG, and OBP; he was second in homers with 45, scored and drove in over 100 runs, a big jump over last year, and was second in walks. Mike Trout versus Christian Yelich: whom you gonna call?

Another great player on a team going nowhere is Kansas City's DH Jorge Soler, who burst out after four entirely unmemorable part-time seasons to belt a league-leading 48 homers with 117 RBI, and despite striking out 178 times maintained a OBP of .354 because he walked 73 times.  Another DH is Minnesota's Nelson Cruz, at 39 quietly setting his sights on Cooperstown: .311, .392, .639 with 41 homers, which pushed him over 400 for his career. We remember him striking out to end the 2010 World Series. Unlike Trout and Soler, he's back in the postseason.

Tim Anderson, shortstop for the Chicago White Sox, led the AL in batting at .335 though he's perhaps the most impatient hitter in the game, even more than Kevin Pillar: fifteen walks in 498 at-bats, and that may explain why he scored only 81 runs despite 50 extra-base hits and a .518 SLG. Still, a shortstop who hits .335? Hang on to him... Elderly Edwin Encarnacion hit 34 homers in 109 games for the mega-successful Yankees; Gleyber Torres led the club with 38, while Aaron Judge missed 60 games and finished with 27, less than the eternal Brett Gardiner, who is older then Edwin Encarnacion. The Yanks' go-to guy appears to be D.J. LeMahieu, the only man on the team with more than 100 runs scored and RBI, and that's a real good guy to go to... Houston, best in the business, has the hydra-headed Bregman, Springer, Altuve, and the 1B/DH combo of Ying and Yang, or Yordan and Yuliesco, Gurriel and Alvarez, who combined for 58 homers... One name we were sorry to see missing among the leaders was Cleveland's Jose Ramirez, with ordinary numbers in a disappointing season for the Tribe, who couldn't catch Minnesota and couldn't stop Oakland. Bob Melvin's A's have seven players with 20 or more homers, three with over 30, none of them, yet, a household name.

Why is Houston the best? Well, they have the major leagues' only 20-game winners, the only AL starters with ERA below 3, and the only two pitchers with 300 strikeouts. Those would be Justin Verlander, with 21-6, 2.53, 300 K, 0.80 WHIP, and Gerrit Cole, who's 20-5 with a 2.50 and 0.89 and 326 strikeouts. Will they split the Cy Young vote and let former teammate Charlie Morton (who starts for Tampa in the AL wild-card playoff tonight) slip in and grab it? He's 16-6 with a 3.05. That's real good, but it's not the best. Verlander won the award eight years ago with Detroit; this year we say it goes to Cole.  The Yankees won a ton of games, and their two-fisted combo of Domingo German and lefty James Paxton went 33-10 between them, but pitched only 281 innings combined. Neither qualified for the ERA title. Really, nobody is close to Verlander and Cole this year, although new teammate Zack Greinke may be come playoff time.


News of the Weird 

Welcome to Outlier Central... Oakland's lefty Brett Anderson gets more ground balls than any pitcher in baseball, and the Cardinals' Dakota Hudson is the only one to get more than twice as many ground balls as fly balls... No Giant was anywhere near this list. Work that big outfield, boys... And true enough, our own "Shark" and "Bum" were high on the list of fly-ball pitchers. Verlander's right up there, too. Detroit's Matthew Boyd gets a higher percentage of balls-in-the-air than anyone... Hudson is the wildest pitcher in the game, walking 86 in 147 innings, but still finished 16-7 with a 3.35 despite a 1.41 WHIP... Former Giant Mike Leake, now with Arizona, is his opposite number. Similar WHIP, but he gave up a MLB-worst 227 hits in 197 innings while walking only 27. That left him with 12-11 and 4.29...  Stats say it's hard to hit off Stephen Strasburg. Among those with a low WHIP he issued the most walks, but allowed less than 7 hits per IP. That's terrific-- or so we think until we look at Cole and Verlander...  Wild man! Wild man! Lance Lynn, formerly of St Louis and now with Texas, uncorked 18 wild pitches in 2019, tops in MLB. It didn't bother him much; he had a good year... Need a double-play ball? Call in the White Sox' Ivan Nova. He got 30 of 'em... Need a double-play ball? Work Nova's teammate, Jose Abreu, low and away. He grounded into 24, as did Manny Machado. Both are fine players, of course; they combined for 65 homers and 208 RBI...  Yelich, as we said earlier, is the best base-stealer in the game. Seattle's Mallex Smith stole 46 to lead everyone, but was caught 9 times. That's 84%, still a net positive... Someone tell the Mets' Amed Rosario and the Royals' Whit Merrifield to just stay put, please. Both were caught stealing ten times with only 19 and 20 successes, respectively... Maybe Mallex Smith can give a tutorial to teammate Dylan Moore? He was 11-for-20, which is awful... Boston's Rafael Devers is an exciting young player: .311, 32 homers, 129 runs scored at age 22. Teach him when to steal and when not to (he stole 8 and also was caught 8 times) and he might score more...  Once again, the Cubs' Anthony Rizzo is king of the statues: he was hit by 27 pitches, best in the bigs... Why do we never see any Giants anywhere near this list?... Watch out when Rizzo digs in against division rival Cincinnati's Trevor Bauer, who led the majors with 19 hit batsmen. How many of those were Rizzo, anyway?


Onward

No, we're not going to "get into" the search for a new manager, or the new GM Zaidi says he wants, or the likelihood of Madison Bumgarner returning to San Francisco. Over the next 30 days the baseball postseason, all 43 potential games of it, will unfold.

The first el foldo was that of the Milwaukee Brewers last night, as they took a 3-1 lead into the bottom of the eighth at Nationals Park, only to see Washington erupt for a three-run rally that carries them into the division series against the Dodgers beginning tomorrow night. The "Kid," Juan Soto, not yet 21 years old, got the big hit against Josh Hader in a rally that reminded us of a Giants comeback against Hader earlier this year. It's only one win, and they have won other individual postseason games, but this is the first time the Nationals have advanced in the postseason since 1981, when they were the Montreal Expos.

The hottest team in baseball at season's end, the perennially-overlooked Oakland A's, host the Tampa Bay Rays tonight in the AL game.  Things kick off in earnest tomorrow as the National League tournament begins: Atlanta hosts St Louis followed by the LA-Washngton game. Friday night the American League starts with the Yankees hosting their personal postseason "pets," the Minnesota Twins (New York is 4-0 against them since 2003), while Houston gets the winner of tonight's game.

We admire the Astros; they're our AL pick. We sympathize with the Nationals, and they're our NL pick. Our own Giants overcame 52 years of negativity to win it all in 2010; can Washington finally lose the "loser" label this year? Stay tuned. 

The Luckiest Man

Winding up his gracious farewell speech to the Giants fans, players, executives, and friends who filled Oracle Park yesterday to thank him, Bruce Bochy, ever the baseball man, mindful of the game's tradition, and resolutely modest about himself without conceding any of the glory his team accomplished during his 13 years as manager, echoed the words of Lou Gehrig as he surveyed the scene before him. "Today," Boch quoted, "I consider myself the luckiest man on the face of this earth." Facing the sea of fans whom he had just thanked for their "kindness," the greatest manager in San Francisco history doffed his cap to the crowd in salute, and then stepped away, joining his beautiful wife Kim and riding off into history, serenaded by the voice of Tony Bennett, and the heart he left in San Francisco.

Tim Lincecum was there, cap on backwards, Giants jersey failing to hide a trademark unbuttoned flannel shirt underneath. He walked right up to the man who never stopped believing in him, and they embraced in a warm bearhug as throats all over the place tightened. Brian Sabean, who never stopped believing in Bruce Bochy, stood alongside Larry Baer and the new guy, Farhan Zaidi. Madison Bumgarner, who has nothing in common with Lincecum except that same undefinable presence on the mound, stood somberly on the infield dirt, watching the only man he's ever played for say farewell. A happy crew of Giants from the 2014 World Championship team, perhaps Bochy's crowning achievement, clustered together on the grass nearby-- Ryan Vogelsong, whose storybook career owes so much to Bochy, and Jake Peavy, effusive as always, who can certainly say the same. A familiar bearded presence among the throng revealed Brian Wilson, and Aubrey Huff's beaming face lit up the infield.

All of these guys, and more, were there because Bruce Bochy's genius as a manager has never been focused on strategy and tactics-- though he has those and other in-game skills in spades-- but on the people whom he gathered around himself and who gathered around him. His whole farewell speech was about everybody else-- the fans, the players, the executives, the friends. Before and after Bochy's own address, over and over came the same comment, delivered in many different ways in many voices: he changed me, he believed in me, and he made us all better; for many of us, he made us better than we thought we could be.

In that moment, for those of us whose lives were enriched by Bruce Bochy on and off the baseball field, we all had right to consider ourselves the luckiest men on the face of this earth.

Fare Thee Well

Robert Burns Hunter, who passed away earlier this week at the age of 78, was a throwback and a visionary at the same time. As a lyricist who wrote songs to be sung by someone other than himself, he worked in the great tradition of Lorenz Hart, Sammy Cahn, Oscar Hammerstein, and rock & roll's own Jerry Leiber. But he also delivered his songs, co-written mostly with his best friend Jerry Garcia, specifically for performance by one of the most innovative, unpredictable, and musically challenging bands of the last century, the Grateful Dead. Though he professed himself often astonished by the tunes Garcia and the band chose to frame his words, Hunter had a poet's gift for rhythm, for emphasis, and for timing.  The Dead's songs, which unabashedly celebrated American exceptionalism while also humorously poking holes in its paper facade, were a lot more, well, interesting-- and provocative-- thanks to Hunter's contributions.

He was a prolific writer and poet who produced a lot more than just Grateful Dead tunes; on several occasions he formed his own backup group and took his songs on the road, singing them in his earnest, sometimes strained, everyman voice. We remember a two-man folkie-type show in spring 1979 at the Other End in New York; we also remember a time he rehearsed what he hoped would be a full-blown stage musical, complete with sets and chorus girls.  As the Dead's cult-like popularity became something of an albatross, the publicity-shy Hunter may have been hoping to extricate himself from its burdens by branching out into other forms. But over time, his obvious gifts led him to work with just about everybody; to cite just one example, Bob Dylan's wonderful "Together Through Life" (2009) is almost entirely co-written with Hunter.

Geoffrey Himes at Paste magazine has written a fine and fitting tribute to the man; it can be found here.  The article is worth reading if only for the hilarious anecdote on how the key line in the Dead's signature tune, "Uncle John's Band," came to be.

Robert Hunter's best-remembered lyrics came during that amazingly fertile period from 1970-1977 when he and Garcia (and occasionally Bob Weir) wrote the Dead's most beloved songs. There are so many, it would be hopeless to list them. But one thing both he and Garcia noted at the time was that this golden age came about when Hunter learned how to phrase his lyrics to fit the way the band played. Perhaps the ideal blend was the serendipitous composition of "Terrapin Station," certainly among the more complex and challenging of Hunter's pieces, yet one that fit perfectly into Garcia's theme. In that song, Hunter writes, and Jerry sings,

                                             The storyteller makes no choice,

                                             Soon you will not hear his voice--

                                             His job is to shed light, and not to master.

At his best, Robert Burns Hunter did both.

With America under renewed attack from within and without, from those overseas who've never given up in their efforts to destroy her, and from those within who seek to "transform" (that's the latest euphemism for "destroy") her, it seems appropriate on this day of remembrance to remember how it all began, and what it cost, and what it still costs. God bless America.

Yaz Sir, That's My Baby

Without getting too awfully worked up about it, we've been poring through the record book as well as various articles, stories, compendia, and other baseball minutiae, trying to determine if we San Francisco Giants fans, in the middle of a mediocre season of transition, are seeing something not just special, but actually unprecedented, unfolding before our eyes.

Or whether we're just seeing the latest version of a story that's already played itself out too many times.

We speak of Mike Yastrzemski, grandson of Hall of Famer Carl, lately a stalwart outfielder for our Giants and, if the whole thing isn't half a season's worth of mirage, a most unusual player indeed.

Mike Yastrzemski turned 29 years old two weeks ago. He made his major-league debut-- not his Giants debut, mind you, but his MLB debut-- on May 25 of this year, at age 28 years and 275 days.

And in the the three-plus months since, Mike Yastrzemski has shown every indication of being a solid, reliable, everyday starting major-league outfielder. His numbers across the board are good; not All-Star worthy, perhaps, but good: .270/.326/.531, a .857 OPS, which is best on the team among regulars. He's hit 19 homers in 307 at-bats; his 162-game projections show 34 homers, 95 runs, 92 RBI. Come to think of it, those are All-Star numbers, especially on this team. Having missed the first eight weeks of the season, he's fourth on the club in WAR, just behind Evan Longoria among position players and well ahead of the next guy, Kevin Pillar, and that's playing in significantly fewer games than either.

We're not aware of this ever happening before; we mean in, like, ever. When was the last time a 29-year-old career minor league position player with no major-league experience came up to the bigs and established himself like this? For that matter, when was the first time? Is this it?

It has been our contention for some time, backed up by solid evidence, that this doesn't happen. Sure, pitchers can, and do, rediscover themselves after a decade or so of mediocrity and turn it around-- R. A. Dickey, for example, or Hoyt Wilhelm, or the all-time late bloomer, Hall of Famer  Dazzy Vance, a rookie at 31. But hitters? No, it just doesn't happen. By the time you're 27, if not at 26, you are who you are. Potential no longer exists. A 27-year-old minor-league hitter is a finished product-- what you have seen is what you will get. In recent years we watched the trials of Jarrett Parker and Mac Williamson, two guys who put up fine minor-league numbers for years and years, finally getting their shot at the bigs at age 27 or so. And while fans desperate for new faces issued hopeful comments about "giving the kids a chance," there we were, ready to tell them that no, these guys ain't "kids," they're veterans, and second, hitters don't all of a sudden "find it" as they're approaching 30 and magically turn from "AAAA" players into major-league regulars. Oh sure, we see some of them hang on for a year or three as fifth outfielders, pinch hitters, commuters on the AAA shuttle, and so forth, but 150-game regulars? Starters? Never. Seriously. Never.

Until now.  "Young Yaz" (relatively speaking) has shown no indication of cooling off. He's batted all over the lineup and done well. He gets on base enough to be a competent leadoff man, but he could bat third, fifth, or eighth. He doesn't strike out much. After 307 ABs, there are no more small sample sizes, no more well-that-was-the-Padres excuses, no more nothing. He's a major-league regular, he is hitting better at 29 than he has in any season since he was 24, and we have no explanation or precedent for it.

We know players coming out of college increase the age floor for rookies; what scouts and coaches looked for in 18- and 19-year olds three decades ago, they now expect to see at 21 or 22. Twenty-year old rookies were once common; now only the Mike Trouts, the Bryce Harpers, the Vlad Guerrero juniors, the generational talents make it to the bigs at that age. So yes, we see a lot of 25-year-old rookies now. Maybe, in time, we'll see more rookies at 29. But folks, we've never seen one like this before.
 
Looking for clues in his minor-league career, we see Yaz's Peter Principle kicked in every time he reached Baltimore's Bowie, Maryland, AA team in the Eastern League. A fine hitter coming out of Vanderbilt at 23, Yaz would put up good numbers again and again in A and A+ ball, then be promoted to AA Bowie, and his numbers would fall off. This Sisyphean journey continued for five full years. He hit well at Norfolk in AAA ball in 2017, and that could have been the turning point-- but last year his numbers dropped, and then cratered when he landed back at Bowie: .202/.276/.327.  The Orioles-- the 100-game-losing Orioles, mind you-- looked him over one more time, shrugged, and traded him to the Giants for a guy you never heard of. Looking at the numbers, it's hard to blame them.

Reviewing Jarrett Parker's minor-league stats over a similar span of years, he looks like the better player. Parker was always willing to take a walk, he had real power though his strikeout rate was appalling, and even accounting for the hit-happy PCL he grades out as a better minor-league player in 2017 than was Yaz a year ago. Yet Yaz is tearin' it up for the Giants and Parker languishes in the Angels' system. (Well, he was languishing-- he got a September 1 callup and so far has gone 0-for-12.)

What's the chance Yaz will still go the way of Parker, of Mac, of any number of players who looked promising but ultimately reverted to what their minor-league numbers said they were all along? (Chris Shaw, a favorite of those same hopeful fans, is reaching the same threshold now.) There is no way to tell. Yaz can certainly still improve-- we'd like to see him walk more, as he did in the Oriole system, and given the way he's turned his hitting around, showing a little more discipline up there shouldn't be a stretch since he's done it before. Defensively, he's a good fielder with average range, and skilled enough to play both left and right. On the Giants, he even has something of a comp-- Alex Dickerson, another 29-year-old minor-league veteran who started blasting the ball as soon as he arrived, but who has battled recurring injury throughout his career and is currently out of action. To us, that gives Yaz more upside. It's hard to believe at this point that he hasn't earned a job as the starting left fielder going into 2020. The question is, of course, can he keep it? Can he take what he's started here and have a five-to-six year career as a major-league regular?

Well, we don't know, and you don't either, because as near as we can tell this is uncharted territory.
 
On the fine Bleacher Report site, David Cucchiara posted a list of the "ten most legendary late bloomers in baseball history." Of the three position players-- Jose Bautista, Dante Bichette, and Lefty O'Doul-- none are really comparable. Bichette and Bautista hadn't done much before they exploded on their respective scenes at age 29, it's true, but both were legitimate major-leaguers for several years before that-- Bautista got 500 at-bats with the Pirates at age 24. O'Doul was a star in the old PCL, a strong independent minor-league in the 1920s; that he didn't sign a major-league contract until he was 30 doesn't mean he couldn't have played well in the big leagues if he'd wanted to. He certainly did once he arrived.

But if anyone out there finds another 29-year-old true rookie putting up these kinds of numbers as an everyday starting outfielder over three-fourths of a season on a major-league team, we'd like to hear about it, because we haven't found him.

Home, Home on the Road

WHILE it may be particularly apropos to the continuing fortunes of our San Francisco Giants this sunny afternoon, we can't take credit for the above witticism. It's the title of a mid-1970s release by the hippie/cowboy band of some past renown, the New Riders of the Purple Sage. Yes, once upon a time your humble scribe here was given reason to believe he might be in line for an audition with that popular local band, who were looking for a new bass player. The advice given, by a good friend of Mr David Nelson, was to sharpen up by practicing to the songs on that live album, because it was the best representation of the group's then-current material. Well, that brief chance for a shot at the Big Time came and went quietly, but even after we wore out the grooves, the album remained in our collection for a few years, and the title was always worth a chuckle, and occasionally a "How true!" from fellow musicians.

The Giants have managed to stay on the outskirts of the National League wild-card race despite playing 68 of their 130 games on the road. Well, that's a bit misleading. It can be persuasively argued that the Giants have remained in contention because they've played the majority of their games on the road. Those of you who regularly visit this spot know we like numbers almost as much as we like music, and folks, the numbers back up our statement. Do they ever.

On the road, the Giants average a robust 5.4 runs per game, more than half a run better than the league average and only a tiny bit less than what the mega-successful LA Dodgers average overall.  At home, well... it's a smoking crater by comparison. The Giants average a mere 3.4 runs per game at Oracle Park. No other team in the league-- no other team in baseball-- has a two-run-per-game home/road mismatch, in either direction, either in pitching or in hitting. And it's all about the offense. As far as pitching goes, the Giants allow 5 runs per game on the road, 4.6 at home, neither very far from the league averages.   If you weigh those four numbers-- 5.4, 5.0, 4.6, 3.4-- only one stands out like a you-know-what in a you-know-where. Consider that the Big O is only slightly below-average for opposing hitters, who average 4.6 against the league average of 4.8. Other teams aren't especially struggling with the park's allegedly daunting dimensions. Only the local boys are.

Here's another take. If the Giants played all their games on the road, they'd project to about 69-61, which is the Chicago Cubs' record today, good enough for the second wild-card spot at the moment. But if they played all their games at home, being outscored by 1.2 runs per game for 62 games, they project out to 46-84, worse than the Marlins, worse than any team in baseball except Baltimore. 

Now, as the daily standings remind us, the Giants are sitting at .500 even though they've been outscored by almost half a run a game and should be at 60-70. (The reason they project to 60-70 on overall runs scored/allowed, instead of 58-72 as our runs-per-game average would have it, is because as we said before, they've played six more games on the road, which skews the overall projection by about 4% to the good.)  They are 36-32 in those road games, which is right in line with their projected road record. But at home, where the projection has them at 22-40, they're 29-33-- still bad, but not terrible. So the skew between actual wins-losses and projected wins-losses is entirely a factor of how they've played at home. What's caused the Giants to win seven more games than they should in the Not-So-Friendly Confines, despite the most anemic home-field offense in the sport?

The first thing comes to mind is one-run games, and do the Giants win a lot of those! They've played 22 one-run games at home-- and won 17 of them, a .772 mark. (They're 13-8 on the road in one-run games.)  The second thing comes to mind is blowouts.  We define a blowout as a seven-run margin or more; the Giants are 0-5 at home in those. They're not so hot on the road, either, at 5-8, but quite a bit better than winless.  Now, some of you will recall that disastrous series at the O at the end of May, where Arizona took it to the Giants in three straight games by a combined 34-8. Those three games alone account for more than half the Giants' current run deficit of 50.

So when Miller and Kuip and Fleming cheerfully tell us that down the stretch the Giants have 19 games left at home and only have to play 13 on the road, does that provoke us to cheer-- or to cringe? Because ladies and gentlemen, if this team is gonna win, say, 86 games-- which means 21 out of the remaining 32-- they're gonna do it with the bats, not with this two-man starting rotation and the most overworked good bullpen in baseball.  And if they score only 3.4 runs per game in those 19, that means we'd best start taking a look at what John Lynch and Kyle Shanahan have on tap for us, because theirs will be the only San Francisco team playing in October.
 
 

Deal or No Deal?

With the trade deadline looming just a few hours ahead of us and everyone's mind on who's-staying-who's-going-and-will-anyone-be-arriving, a beloved family member and die-hard Giants fan took time to put an unusual spin on Madison Bumgarner's much-discussed no-trade-list of eight teams.

"Look at the list," he said. "Notice anything all these teams have in common?"

"Let's see... Yankees, Red Sox-- no surprise there, what lefty wants to pitch in Fenway?-- Cardinals-- that's kind of a surprise, isn't it?-- Astros, Phillies, Brewers, Cubs, Braves-- now, that's a surprise--  ummm, that's it, isn't it?"

"Yep. So, what do these teams have in common?"

"Well, let's see... well...well-- why, they're all contenders!"

"Exactly," he said. "What do you think it means?"

"Well, it's strange, isn't it? You'd think-- I mean, Bum is a good regular-season pitcher, an ace on some teams, probably a #2 on the best teams, but in the postseason-- well, everyone knows he's a monster. He's the best."
 
"Right. And those eight teams know that. They know what it would mean to have Bumgarner in the playoffs. And he knows they know it. He updates that list every offseason, and he chooses..."

"...the teams that he thinks are most likely to go deep in the postseason next year. Of course he won't choose LA, he knows the Giants will never trade him within the division.  But--"

"But these are the teams that need him most. And he knows it. Why, then?"

"To get more money out of the Giants, to make them pay him to waive the clause if they make a tentative deal?"

"Maybe. But I think it's a signal to management. That he..."

"... that he doesn't want to go anywhere! That he wants to stay with the Giants, and has all along! Why else would his no-trade clause be made up exclusively of contenders?"

"It's a cry for help! It's a coded signal to management! It's a sly, back-door hint that he doesn't want to be sold off to the highest bidder, the most desperate, the most World Series-starved contender!"

"Well, we all know who that is."

"Of course." And we both responded, in chorus, "LA."

"And they don't need to be on the list."

"Right."

"Gee, do you really believe this? I mean, Washington could use him, and they're not on the list. And nobody saw Minnesota coming." 

"True. But I still think I'm right. He wants to stay. I know it. And this is his way of saying it without saying it."

"I hope you're right."

"Me too. See you at four o'clock?"

"You know it."

The Glorious Fourth

No, it's not a reference to the Giants' fourth straight win last night, which is certainly welcome if not exactly glorious. If you're an American, please make sure you take time today to consider what was at stake 243 years ago, and what is at stake today.  God bless America.

Four straight wins and five out of six have brought the Giants within fighting distance of fourth place (they trail the just-swept-'em-in-their-home-park Padres by only three) and within consideration of a chance to finish the season at .500, which would have been a not-very-funny joke a month ago. Of course, the St Louis Cardinals, who arrive for a three-game set tomorrow night and are themselves fighting both for relevancy and to at least preserve their own .500 record, could knock this recent success right into a cocked hat.

Speaking of which--  has any team in recent memory had a day off on both Memorial Day and the Fourth of July in the same season?

Since we last looked at team stats in late May, the Giants have vaulted from last in the league in walks to tenth. That's an astonishing turnaround. The Giants are also 17-13 since June 1, and while they're still next-to-last in runs scored, they have closed the gap to a degree. They have scored 148 runs in those 30 games, 4.9 per game, while they scored only 208 in their first 56 games (3.7). An extra run a game is a pretty major deal, especially when you're a last-place team with an unremarkable pitching staff.

And we have no problem concluding:

• The big difference is that Giants hitters are taking walks now, where they were not before, and
• Batting Brandon Belt at the top of the order has especially energized this offense over the last week. 

Brandon Belt has always been willing to take a walk; he gets a bad rap because people expect their first baseman to be an RBI man, while Belt is and always has been a table-setter. Thankfully Bruce Bochy was clever enough, or desperate enough, to try this. A guy who forces the pitcher to throw a lot of pitches so his teammates can see what he's got, who goes deep in the count, and who GETS ON BASE-- that's a leadoff man, whether he's the Roadrunner or a three-toed sloth. The Giants are scoring runs, and seeing better pitches, and hitting more home runs, because the top of their order is now getting on base. Belt first batted leadoff on June 28, he's been either first or second since, and the Giants have scored 49 runs in those six games. Sure, half of that was against the Padres-- the same Padres who held the Giants to 28 runs total in their previous 9 games.

Last night Belt was 3-for-4 with a walk; that's an .800 OBP. He's fourth in the league with 56 walks; he's 19th in OBP because his average is about 30 points lower than normal. Then again, his average has gained almost 20 points of late, as has Evan Longoria's. "Longo," who walked a frightful 22 times in 512 AB last year, already has 27 in 265 AB this year. Joe Panik has 31 in 280 and even slumping Brandon Crawford has 25 in 266. A month ago Belt was the only guy whose walks equaled or surpassed 10% of his at-bats, which we've always held as the minimum standard for good hitters, and an essential standard for guys who hit in the .250-.270 range. 

Not all the Giants are following suit-- Kevin Pillar has more homers (12) than walks (10) in 301 at-bats, and Pablo Sandoval 9 in 171 while averaging a robust .287. Buster Posey needs to walk more (19 in 208 AB leaves him with a tepid .314 OBP), but Stephen Vogt is at .330 with a .800 OPS and 10 walks in 100 at-bats. Austin Slater, whom we're awfully glad to see back in the majors, has walked twice in 10 at-bats (.583) and everybody's new favorite, Alex Dickerson, has 5 in 38 for a .419 to go with his .737 SLG.

With a resolutely average pitching staff (9th in the NL in ERA), can the Giants now "walk their way" to respectability in July? Stay tuned. 

Congratulations to Will Smith, the Giants' one truly deserving All-Star, in his first career selection to the big game. Smith, even if he's destined to be traded away within the month, has been a great pitcher for the Giants. He's 22-for-22 in save opportunities this year; nobody else in the league has a perfect record, and he's third overall in saves. He has saved 60% of his team's wins.

Smith was also 14-of-18 a year ago in half a season after a successful recovery from Tommy John surgery. Even accounting for his having arrived late in 2016, missing all of 2017, and part of 2018, he has made that 2016 trade with Milwaukee the best of Bobby Evans' short tenure as Giants GM. Word is the Minnesota Twins are showing a lot of interest; it's with sincere regret we opine that the best thing Will Smith can do for the Giants now is to bring a top-100 prospect in trade.

In Memoriam

No, these are not flags flying at half-staff over the hopes and dreams of 2019 Giants fans. A little respect, please, for those who have fallen in the service of our country.

Noted curmudgeons that we are, we remember, and prefer, when Memorial Day was observed (not celebrated) on May 30, regardless of what day of the week it fell upon. Midweek days off from school, even when those days included the obligatory trip to the graveyard with parents, were a special delight far beyond the dubious benefits of today's manufactured three-day weekends. We believe if our nation went back to the old way, we'd hear a lot less preaching and posturing about how Memorial Day means more than just beach trips and barbecue.   

Memorial Day also usually means baseball, but perhaps with a prophetic sense of mercy, the MLB schedule-makers chose this as a day off for our beloved, benighted San Francisco Giants. Surely they need it. No one who's been watching lately feels especially sanguine about this upcoming road trip to Miami, Baltimore, and New York, even though those three teams have a combined record worse than the Giants' own. The team we just saw get swept on their home field by a resolutely ordinary Arizona ballclub couldn't beat anybody.

It's unusual regardless. We've gone back as far as we care to in baseball history, and we still can't come up with a date for the last time the Giants weren't even scheduled to play on Memorial Day. Well, that's enough of that.

Speaking of dates, two stand out amid the rubble of this season so far. First was April 24, when the Giants concluded a tough 4-4 road trip with two wins in Toronto, the first on a four-homer game (yes, it happened) and the second on a two-hit shutout by Drew Pomeranz. (To call both those incidents 'anomalies' is understatement of the first order.) The second date is May 3 in Cincinnati. The Giants had just shaken off a brutal three-game sweep at home by the Yankees by taking two out of three from the Dodgers, with fine pitching from Madison Bumgarner and Jeff Samardzija. At that point they were 13-18, still battling Colorado for last place, but certainly not locked out of possible wild-card contention.  But in the 21 games since, Giants pitchers have given up 9 or more runs 7 times, including 44 in the last three games.  They've endured 5 starts in that time with Game Scores less than 20, and that doesn't include the blew-up-in-your-face "opener" experiment of May 14.  Alone against the tide of awfulness, Bumgarner has posted 4 quality starts in that period. The other guys-- there've been seven of them-- have managed three, but even those are misleading. It's been a disconcerting Giants habit for their starter to be roughed up immediately in the first inning, putting this light-hitting team in a deep hole, and then to pitch respectably the rest of the way, saving his "Game Score" but losing his "Game." An example would be Samardzija's most recent debacle against the Braves, with that nightmare second inning of the six unearned runs, after which he settled down-- yes, settled down like a mugging victim dozing off in a chair at the police station.

Sure, this is a light-hitting team, though they've done better in May than in April. But the bullpen has generally been solid, and with good starting pitching, this team could contend for a wild-card spot. But without it, these guys are sunk. And what's with all the errors, for Pete's sake?  Few teams go through a season committing more errors than they turn double plays, but the Giants already have 40 errors in 51 games-- in the NL, only the Cubs have more, with 41-- and only 37 DPs. It's primarily the right side of the infield-- Brandon Crawford, Evan Longoria, and Pablo Sandoval have combined for 15 errors, Brandon Belt and Joe Panik only 4. Crawford's exceptional range has more than made up for his errors in the past, but not this year-- he is below average in range and FPCT.  Longoria and Sandoval are, however, the worst defensive third basemen in the league, by far. Does all this affect the pitching? You bet it does-- the Giants have given up 32 unearned runs, by a considerable margin the worst in the league. Add that to a 4.62 ERA, fourth-worst in the NL, and it's time to bugle the cavalry. Or surrender. There ain't much in the way of cavalry.

Following the 2016 near-miss the Giants front office made a conscious decision, a gamble, to try and get one more championship run from "The Core."  They misjudged badly during that offseason, and are still paying for it today. We now know conclusively that they have lost that gamble big-time, and so the rebuilding must begin right away. What faint hope there was for a playoff chase in Bruce Bochy's last season is gone. At 21-31, barely over .400, and on a downward spiral, it's extremely unlikely this team can reach .500 by August 31, as they did a year ago.

So Farhan Zaidi's real job begins now, and early returns will start coming in about two months from now. We expect everyone but Buster Posey will be on the market. 

Speculation, a great deal of speculation, awaits. But not today. The Giants are idle. Take a walk to a nearby cemetery and visit the grave of one who died that we may live free.

The San Francisco Giants Open the 2019 Season!

Madison Bumgarner, L, 29
The most visible Giant, for his contract status and his pitching

Dereck Rodriguez, R, 27
Last year's breakout rookie is no kid no longer; it's time to shine

Derek Holland, L, 32
The Giants' unheralded pitching ace in 2018 earned this spot

Jeff Samardzija, R, 34
Has looked strong this spring: keep your fingers crossed

Drew Pomeranz, L, 30
A fine pitcher from 2014-2017; was last year just a fluke?

Will Smith, L, 29
Inning-for-inning, the team's most effective pitcher last year

Tony Watson, L, 34
Took over the "Affeldt role" and played it exceptionally well

Reyes Moronta, R, 26
Cut down on the walks and we could have a closer here

Mark Melancon, R, 34
Seems to have settled into a late-inning, possible setup role

Nick Vincent, R, 32
A career 1.11 WHIP, 9 K/IP, 4/1 K/BB, with bad teams. Why not?

Sam Dyson, R, 31
Was the closer two years ago, now one of five righty relievers

Travis Bergen, L, 25
Third lefty in the 'pen is a rookie making his MLB debut

Trevor Gott, R, 25
Appeared in 19 forgettable innings for Washington last year

Johnny Cueto, R (DL), 33
If the TJS was successful, presume he'll be back in 2020

Buster Posey, c, 32
Can a repaired hip return this HOFer to the MVP level?

Brandon Belt, 1b, 31
Everyone's watching Buster, but a healthy Belt's the key to this lineup

Evan Longoria, 3b, 33
It's simple, really; he has to re-learn how to go deep in the count

Brandon Crawford, ss, 32
The one 2018 regular who did not spend significant time on the DL

Joe Panik, 2b, 28
Looking good in the spring; how will he look in the summer?

Steven Duggar, cf, 25
Opens season as starter, may eventually platoon

Gerardo Parra, rf, 32
No power, but brings a reputation for good defense

Michael Reed, lf, 26
He's young and he had a .453 OBP in 97 AAA games last year

Yangervis Solarte, ut, 31
He's averaged 15 homers a year, so he'll play if he can do that here

Pablo Sandoval, ut, 32
Can't explain, but the team does better when he's on it

Connor Joe, ut, 26
Giants must like him 'cause he beat out popular Alen Hanson

Erik Kratz, c, 38
Veteran trade pickup did well with Milwaukee in 2018 postseason



Well, if nothing else, it's nice seeing three lefties in the starting rotation. It's been awhile.

The cognoscenti  consensus has tabbed the Giants to lose 90 games this year, which could consign them to dead last in the NL West if San Diego gets a boost from mighty Manny Machado and Arizona isn't ready to roll over dead. On paper the upgrades from Farhan Zaidi's first winter at the helm aren't much-- Drew Pomeranz is the biggest-name addition and that's primarily because he was so awful for the world champion Red Sox last year. It's hard to see how guys like Gerardo Parra and the tongue-twisting Yangervis Solarte are measurably different from guys like Gorkys Hernandez and Alen Hanson. An awful lot seems to be riding on the notion that, having been bit by the DL viper at multiple positions all at once last year, the Giants are due for a full season of health from their infield veterans-- and that, with an outfield-by-committee, will be enough to score the 700 or so runs they'll need to contend if they get a strong year from the pitchers.

A successful Giants team this year will be a lot like an iceberg-- unimpressive above the surface, but strong and wide down below the waterline. So we'll start with the bullpen. The "Big Three"-- Smith, Watson, Moronta-- were as effective as any group in baseball last year. Newcomer Vincent brings an impressive resume. And Melancon, at full health, free from "closer" pressure, and well-rested after two years of light duty, has a real chance to start paying off that contract. Sam Dyson and the two rooks provide depth, maybe too much depth-- no one really needs 13 pitchers, even with the shift toward daily planned use of relievers, which we'll discuss in a bit.

The entertaining Will Leitch on mlb.com predicts Madison Bumgarner will not be traded, but will instead be re-signed by the Giants. We've been beating this drum for a year or so, so it's nice to have company. "Bum" is another one who's had lighter-than-usual duty for two years-- 241 innings total, which is a normal single-season's workload for him. Fatigue will not be an issue for the big guy. But everyone else in the starting rotation is a question mark. Can Dereck Rodriguez adjust, now that the league has adjusted to him? (Back in the day they called this the "sophomore jinx.") Derek Holland, after his first year in the NL, will be in a similar situation. Samardzija and Pomeranz both are in the "show me" category after disastrous seasons.

The overall trend is toward more relief pitching per game, and at the same time a slower but definite shift away from one-batter specialist relievers (there's a rule change coming, by the way). The concept of the "opener" underscores the idea that perhaps once through the lineup is best for most--that a team may be best served by planning for three to five pitchers per game, regardless of how well one of those may be doing at any given point during the game.  There will be exceptions, of course, for the Cy Young-level aces such as "Bum," Chris Sale, and Max Scherzer. But, especially at the back end of the rotation, managers may increasingly look for five innings, max. How can this help the Giants? With a strong bullpen behind them, the team's starters may find they are a whole lot more effective over five, even four in some cases, than they would be over seven. Does anyone doubt Bruce Bochy has the aptitude and experience to maximize the effectiveness of this situation? The iceberg drifts, unseen, across the bow.

With Posey, it's power. If he can drive the ball again, he's back. With Belt, it's health-- if he's well enough to play, he'll hit. With Longoria, it's walks. He needs to average one base on balls per ten AB. Minimum. If he does, watch his numbers jump. With Panik, it's left-handers. He couldn't hit them last year. With Crawford, it's still defense first. Since he won't go on the DL, he plays hurt, and when he can't make the acrobatic plays in the field you know you won't see any power at the plate. And what about that outfield? No one knows. Steven Duggar can play the position, no question, but can he wait for a good pitch to hit, and take a walk if none come his way? Will Brandon Belt move to left field when Posey moves to first base? Gerardo Parra is no Andrew McCutchen, though he's a good player. Reed, the rookie, brings good minor-league comps. Behind them are-- well, the other newcomers, Joe and Solarte, are primarily backup infielders, not outfielders, so we've generously listed them as utilitymen. It feels like sink-or-swim time for a lot of unproven talent. Is this group even as good as the outfield that was an aggregate 4 wins below average a year ago? 

It says here the National League overall, and the West in particular, will not be as strong as it was in 2018. Colorado and LA are obviously superior to the Giants as the season starts, but it's doubtful  both are 20 wins better. One is likely to win the West, and our money's on the Rockies. The question is whether a .500 Giants team this summer will be fighting for second place, or for third. The Central has Milwaukee, who jumped forward, Chicago, who fell back, and St Louis, who are likely to improve, with Pittsburgh about where the Giants are and Cincinnati a year or so away. In the East, Atlanta could easily have a fallback/consolidation year. Philadelphia, if Bryce Harper delivers a 8+ WAR MVP season, could approach 90 wins. More realistically, we see one of those two and Washington converging at about 85 wins, with two of the Central powers a few wins ahead.  And if the division leaders get way out in front, it will tend to drop the rest of the pack below .500.

Where does that leave the Giants, if they can play .500 ball into August? About where they were at that time a year ago, except the wild-card contenders will likely be fewer in number and easier to catch. And, if they can't play .500 ball past the All-Star break... well, Mr Zaidi will be asked to start earning his money.

This is Bruce Bochy's last season. No Giants manager has ever gone out a winner. Dusty Baker came close, but his final year saw so much second-guessing it almost obscured his legacy for a time. The beloved Roger Craig finished with two losing years. Herman Franks and Alvin Dark never had losing seasons in their four-year terms, but neither won a championship.  If nothing else, a strong 2019 campaign in which the Giants contend, win or lose, would avoid the last few months of the season being devoted to morbid speculation over Bochy's successor. The greatest manager in San Francisco history, retiring after a record 13 years, deserves a better farewell.


  

Snow Way This is Spring

"The Giants have spent every year of essentially the last five trying to rally the troops and squeeze one more title out of the Bumgarner/Posey/manager Bruce Bochy crew. Well, this is Bochy’s final season, and with Bumgarner a free agent after this year and a new sheriff in the front office, this is all there probably is left. Zaidi didn’t dismantle the team in the offseason, so he’s giving them one last chance. If the Giants get off to a slow start, the dismantling might begin early. But if they can hang around the postseason chase, maybe Zaidi decides to add rather than subtract. It’d sure be nice to send Bochy out a winner."

-- Will Leitch, " 20 questions that will define the NL West", 2/27/2019, at  https://www.mlb.com/giants/news/2019-nl-west-preview

It's always nice to find agreement out there. This is the same message we've been sending out since the disastrous 2017 campaign. The Giants have, for the last two years and this one, committed themselves to one more shot at the brass ring with the "core"-- essentially Buster, Bum, and Crawford-- before any serious rebuild will be considered. 

Team ownership and management know that getting to the postseason is the key-- that, as Billy Beane has long maintained, the playoffs are a crapshoot and any team can get hot and win. The Giants are proof positive, especially the 2014 team. The 2010 team, such a great outfit in retrospect, only got to the postseason because San Diego collapsed down the stretch and the Giants took advantage. The 2012 team was the best of the three, and the only one of them that could legitimately claim to be the best in baseball that year. The difference between the 2014 team, which went all the way, and the 2016 team, which didn't, was one game: 88-74 versus 87-75. And until the ninth inning of Game 4 of the NLDS, it sure seemed like the 2016 Giants had every chance of doing what the 2014 team had done.   

A lot of the weeping and wailing that has accompanied this chilly offseason has been overly influenced by September of last year, when the Giants essentially took the month off, trading or inactivating every effective position player and fielding a Triple-A team for 30 days, which went 5-21.  We forget the Giants, with Gorkys Hernandez, Steven Duggar, Austin Slater, and a declining Hunter Pence at two of the three outfield positions, were 68-68 on August 31. That's a 15-game improvement over the pestilential 2017 team, which was 53-83 at the same point and lost 98 games.

By comparison, take a look at the 2013 Giants. They were 60-75 on August 31, 2013, eight games worse than last year's team. They finished 76-86, just three games ahead of last year's team. They won the world championship the next season. And they got older, not younger. That's what Farhan Zaidi and Larry Baer and Brian Sabean are looking at right now. It's a thin line when five teams qualify for the postseason and a .500 record in July means you're a contender. They don't just know this intellectually; they've seen it played out, with this team.

Contrary to revisionist claims, the Giants did not get younger each year they won the World Series. In fact, they generally got a little older. In 2010 the big contributions were from veterans-- Aubrey Huff, Pat Burrell, Cody Ross, Juan Uribe-- plus the Rookie of the Year, Buster Posey.

In 2012, Marco Scutaro, Hunter Pence, and the healthy Angel Pagan, veterans all, balanced out against the youth of the Brandons, Belt and Crawford, and MVP Posey. 

In 2014, Joe Panik was the lone youngster added to a veteran group with a bunch of part-timers-- Mike Morse, Gregor Blanco, Juan Perez, Travis Ishikawa-- at two of the outfield positions. Sound familiar?

And while the Giants' best pitchers in 2010 were younger than the overall team age, it was the same crew in 2012, except they were two years older and 34-year-old Ryan Vogelsong had replaced then-29-year-old Jonathan Sanchez. And the whole pitching staff, starters and "Core Four", added veterans and was much older in 2014. 

So there is no recent precedent for an "influx of youth" transforming the San Francisco Giants from losers to winners overnight. There is ample precedent for an influx of veterans doing it, though.

An influx of youth means a rebuild. Houston, Atlanta, Boston, and Philadelphia know all about it. And in San Francisco, the rebuild is coming, but not yet. A year ago we had figured on 2021, but with Zaidi's arrival the timetable has moved up. It will be next year, no matter what happens this year. Except for Buster Posey, probably Brandon Crawford, and perhaps Madison Bumgarner, every position player, and every pitcher over 29 years of age, will be tradeable next winter. And the selling will begin this summer if the Giants are below .500 the last week of July.

So don't give up the ship just yet. She's getting one more chance to circle the globe.