Deal or No Deal?

With the trade deadline looming just a few hours ahead of us and everyone's mind on who's-staying-who's-going-and-will-anyone-be-arriving, a beloved family member and die-hard Giants fan took time to put an unusual spin on Madison Bumgarner's much-discussed no-trade-list of eight teams.

"Look at the list," he said. "Notice anything all these teams have in common?"

"Let's see... Yankees, Red Sox-- no surprise there, what lefty wants to pitch in Fenway?-- Cardinals-- that's kind of a surprise, isn't it?-- Astros, Phillies, Brewers, Cubs, Braves-- now, that's a surprise--  ummm, that's it, isn't it?"

"Yep. So, what do these teams have in common?"

"Well, let's see... well...well-- why, they're all contenders!"

"Exactly," he said. "What do you think it means?"

"Well, it's strange, isn't it? You'd think-- I mean, Bum is a good regular-season pitcher, an ace on some teams, probably a #2 on the best teams, but in the postseason-- well, everyone knows he's a monster. He's the best."
 
"Right. And those eight teams know that. They know what it would mean to have Bumgarner in the playoffs. And he knows they know it. He updates that list every offseason, and he chooses..."

"...the teams that he thinks are most likely to go deep in the postseason next year. Of course he won't choose LA, he knows the Giants will never trade him within the division.  But--"

"But these are the teams that need him most. And he knows it. Why, then?"

"To get more money out of the Giants, to make them pay him to waive the clause if they make a tentative deal?"

"Maybe. But I think it's a signal to management. That he..."

"... that he doesn't want to go anywhere! That he wants to stay with the Giants, and has all along! Why else would his no-trade clause be made up exclusively of contenders?"

"It's a cry for help! It's a coded signal to management! It's a sly, back-door hint that he doesn't want to be sold off to the highest bidder, the most desperate, the most World Series-starved contender!"

"Well, we all know who that is."

"Of course." And we both responded, in chorus, "LA."

"And they don't need to be on the list."

"Right."

"Gee, do you really believe this? I mean, Washington could use him, and they're not on the list. And nobody saw Minnesota coming." 

"True. But I still think I'm right. He wants to stay. I know it. And this is his way of saying it without saying it."

"I hope you're right."

"Me too. See you at four o'clock?"

"You know it."