The most visible Giant, for his contract status and his pitching
Dereck Rodriguez, R, 27
Last year's breakout rookie is no kid no longer; it's time to shine
Derek Holland, L, 32
The Giants' unheralded pitching ace in 2018 earned this spot
Jeff Samardzija, R, 34
Has looked strong this spring: keep your fingers crossed
Drew Pomeranz, L, 30
A fine pitcher from 2014-2017; was last year just a fluke?
Will Smith, L, 29
Inning-for-inning, the team's most effective pitcher last year
Tony Watson, L, 34
Took over the "Affeldt role" and played it exceptionally well
Reyes Moronta, R, 26
Cut down on the walks and we could have a closer here
Mark Melancon, R, 34
Seems to have settled into a late-inning, possible setup role
Nick Vincent, R, 32
A career 1.11 WHIP, 9 K/IP, 4/1 K/BB, with bad teams. Why not?
Sam Dyson, R, 31
Was the closer two years ago, now one of five righty relievers
Travis Bergen, L, 25
Third lefty in the 'pen is a rookie making his MLB debut
Trevor Gott, R, 25
Appeared in 19 forgettable innings for Washington last year
Johnny Cueto, R (DL), 33
If the TJS was successful, presume he'll be back in 2020
Buster Posey, c, 32
Can a repaired hip return this HOFer to the MVP level?
Brandon Belt, 1b, 31
Everyone's watching Buster, but a healthy Belt's the key to this lineup
Evan Longoria, 3b, 33
It's simple, really; he has to re-learn how to go deep in the count
Brandon Crawford, ss, 32
The one 2018 regular who did not spend significant time on the DL
Joe Panik, 2b, 28
Looking good in the spring; how will he look in the summer?
Steven Duggar, cf, 25
Opens season as starter, may eventually platoon
Gerardo Parra, rf, 32
No power, but brings a reputation for good defense
Michael Reed, lf, 26
He's young and he had a .453 OBP in 97 AAA games last year
Yangervis Solarte, ut, 31
He's averaged 15 homers a year, so he'll play if he can do that here
Can't explain, but the team does better when he's on it
Connor Joe, ut, 26
Giants must like him 'cause he beat out popular Alen Hanson
Erik Kratz, c, 38
Veteran trade pickup did well with Milwaukee in 2018 postseason
Well, if nothing else, it's nice seeing three lefties in the starting rotation. It's been awhile.
The cognoscenti consensus has tabbed the Giants to lose 90 games this year, which could consign them to dead last in the NL West if San Diego gets a boost from mighty Manny Machado and Arizona isn't ready to roll over dead. On paper the upgrades from Farhan Zaidi's first winter at the helm aren't much-- Drew Pomeranz is the biggest-name addition and that's primarily because he was so awful for the world champion Red Sox last year. It's hard to see how guys like Gerardo Parra and the tongue-twisting Yangervis Solarte are measurably different from guys like Gorkys Hernandez and Alen Hanson. An awful lot seems to be riding on the notion that, having been bit by the DL viper at multiple positions all at once last year, the Giants are due for a full season of health from their infield veterans-- and that, with an outfield-by-committee, will be enough to score the 700 or so runs they'll need to contend if they get a strong year from the pitchers.
A successful Giants team this year will be a lot like an iceberg-- unimpressive above the surface, but strong and wide down below the waterline. So we'll start with the bullpen. The "Big Three"-- Smith, Watson, Moronta-- were as effective as any group in baseball last year. Newcomer Vincent brings an impressive resume. And Melancon, at full health, free from "closer" pressure, and well-rested after two years of light duty, has a real chance to start paying off that contract. Sam Dyson and the two rooks provide depth, maybe too much depth-- no one really needs 13 pitchers, even with the shift toward daily planned use of relievers, which we'll discuss in a bit.
The entertaining Will Leitch on mlb.com predicts Madison Bumgarner will not be traded, but will instead be re-signed by the Giants. We've been beating this drum for a year or so, so it's nice to have company. "Bum" is another one who's had lighter-than-usual duty for two years-- 241 innings total, which is a normal single-season's workload for him. Fatigue will not be an issue for the big guy. But everyone else in the starting rotation is a question mark. Can Dereck Rodriguez adjust, now that the league has adjusted to him? (Back in the day they called this the "sophomore jinx.") Derek Holland, after his first year in the NL, will be in a similar situation. Samardzija and Pomeranz both are in the "show me" category after disastrous seasons.
The overall trend is toward more relief pitching per game, and at the same time a slower but definite shift away from one-batter specialist relievers (there's a rule change coming, by the way). The concept of the "opener" underscores the idea that perhaps once through the lineup is best for most--that a team may be best served by planning for three to five pitchers per game, regardless of how well one of those may be doing at any given point during the game. There will be exceptions, of course, for the Cy Young-level aces such as "Bum," Chris Sale, and Max Scherzer. But, especially at the back end of the rotation, managers may increasingly look for five innings, max. How can this help the Giants? With a strong bullpen behind them, the team's starters may find they are a whole lot more effective over five, even four in some cases, than they would be over seven. Does anyone doubt Bruce Bochy has the aptitude and experience to maximize the effectiveness of this situation? The iceberg drifts, unseen, across the bow.
With Posey, it's power. If he can drive the ball again, he's back. With Belt, it's health-- if he's well enough to play, he'll hit. With Longoria, it's walks. He needs to average one base on balls per ten AB. Minimum. If he does, watch his numbers jump. With Panik, it's left-handers. He couldn't hit them last year. With Crawford, it's still defense first. Since he won't go on the DL, he plays hurt, and when he can't make the acrobatic plays in the field you know you won't see any power at the plate. And what about that outfield? No one knows. Steven Duggar can play the position, no question, but can he wait for a good pitch to hit, and take a walk if none come his way? Will Brandon Belt move to left field when Posey moves to first base? Gerardo Parra is no Andrew McCutchen, though he's a good player. Reed, the rookie, brings good minor-league comps. Behind them are-- well, the other newcomers, Joe and Solarte, are primarily backup infielders, not outfielders, so we've generously listed them as utilitymen. It feels like sink-or-swim time for a lot of unproven talent. Is this group even as good as the outfield that was an aggregate 4 wins below average a year ago?
It says here the National League overall, and the West in particular, will not be as strong as it was in 2018. Colorado and LA are obviously superior to the Giants as the season starts, but it's doubtful both are 20 wins better. One is likely to win the West, and our money's on the Rockies. The question is whether a .500 Giants team this summer will be fighting for second place, or for third. The Central has Milwaukee, who jumped forward, Chicago, who fell back, and St Louis, who are likely to improve, with Pittsburgh about where the Giants are and Cincinnati a year or so away. In the East, Atlanta could easily have a fallback/consolidation year. Philadelphia, if Bryce Harper delivers a 8+ WAR MVP season, could approach 90 wins. More realistically, we see one of those two and Washington converging at about 85 wins, with two of the Central powers a few wins ahead. And if the division leaders get way out in front, it will tend to drop the rest of the pack below .500.
Where does that leave the Giants, if they can play .500 ball into August? About where they were at that time a year ago, except the wild-card contenders will likely be fewer in number and easier to catch. And, if they can't play .500 ball past the All-Star break... well, Mr Zaidi will be asked to start earning his money.
This is Bruce Bochy's last season. No Giants manager has ever gone out a winner. Dusty Baker came close, but his final year saw so much second-guessing it almost obscured his legacy for a time. The beloved Roger Craig finished with two losing years. Herman Franks and Alvin Dark never had losing seasons in their four-year terms, but neither won a championship. If nothing else, a strong 2019 campaign in which the Giants contend, win or lose, would avoid the last few months of the season being devoted to morbid speculation over Bochy's successor. The greatest manager in San Francisco history, retiring after a record 13 years, deserves a better farewell.
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