Thursday, July 4, 2019

The Glorious Fourth



No, it's not a reference to the Giants' fourth straight win last night, which is certainly welcome if not exactly glorious. If you're an American, please make sure you take time today to consider what was at stake 243 years ago, and what is at stake today.  God bless America.

Four straight wins and five out of six have brought the Giants within fighting distance of fourth place (they trail the just-swept-'em-in-their-home-park Padres by only three) and within consideration of a chance to finish the season at .500, which would have been a not-very-funny joke a month ago. Of course, the St Louis Cardinals, who arrive for a three-game set tomorrow night and are themselves fighting both for relevancy and to at least preserve their own .500 record, could knock this recent success right into a cocked hat.

Speaking of which--  has any team in recent memory had a day off on both Memorial Day and the Fourth of July in the same season?

Since we last looked at team stats in late May, the Giants have vaulted from last in the league in walks to tenth. That's an astonishing turnaround. The Giants are also 17-13 since June 1, and while they're still next-to-last in runs scored, they have closed the gap to a degree. They have scored 148 runs in those 30 games, 4.9 per game, while they scored only 208 in their first 56 games (3.7). An extra run a game is a pretty major deal, especially when you're a last-place team with an unremarkable pitching staff.

And we have no problem concluding:

  • The big difference is that Giants hitters are taking walks now, where they were not before, and
  • Batting Brandon Belt at the top of the order has especially energized this offense over the last week. 

Brandon Belt has always been willing to take a walk; he gets a bad rap because people expect their first baseman to be an RBI man, while Belt is and always has been a table-setter. Thankfully Bruce Bochy was clever enough, or desperate enough, to try this. A guy who forces the pitcher to throw a lot of pitches so his teammates can see what he's got, who goes deep in the count, and who GETS ON BASE-- that's a leadoff man, whether he's the Roadrunner or a three-toed sloth. The Giants are scoring runs, and seeing better pitches, and hitting more home runs, because the top of their order is now getting on base. Belt first batted leadoff on June 28, he's been either first or second since, and the Giants have scored 49 runs in those six games. Sure, half of that was against the Padres-- the same Padres who held the Giants to 28 runs total in their previous 9 games.

Last night Belt was 3-for-4 with a walk; that's an .800 OBP. He's fourth in the league with 56 walks; he's 19th in OBP because his average is about 30 points lower than normal. Then again, his average has gained almost 20 points of late, as has Evan Longoria's. "Longo," who walked a frightful 22 times in 512 AB last year, already has 27 in 265 AB this year. Joe Panik has 31 in 280 and even slumping Brandon Crawford has 25 in 266. A month ago Belt was the only guy whose walks equaled or surpassed 10% of his at-bats, which we've always held as the minimum standard for good hitters, and an essential standard for guys who hit in the .250-.270 range. 

Not all the Giants are following suit-- Kevin Pillar has more homers (12) than walks (10) in 301 at-bats, and Pablo Sandoval 9 in 171 while averaging a robust .287. Buster Posey needs to walk more (19 in 208 AB leaves him with a tepid .314 OBP), but Stephen Vogt is at .330 with a .800 OPS and 10 walks in 100 at-bats. Austin Slater, whom we're awfully glad to see back in the majors, has walked twice in 10 at-bats (.583) and everybody's new favorite, Alex Dickerson, has 5 in 38 for a .419 to go with his .737 SLG.

With a resolutely average pitching staff (9th in the NL in ERA), can the Giants now "walk their way" to respectability in July? Stay tuned. 




Congratulations to Will Smith, the Giants' one truly deserving All-Star, in his first career selection to the big game. Smith, even if he's destined to be traded away within the month, has been a great pitcher for the Giants. He's 22-for-22 in save opportunities this year; nobody else in the league has a perfect record, and he's third overall in saves. He has saved 60% of his team's wins.

Smith was also 14-of-18 a year ago in half a season after a successful recovery from Tommy John surgery. Even accounting for his having arrived late in 2016, missing all of 2017, and part of 2018, he has made that 2016 trade with Milwaukee the best of Bobby Evans' short tenure as Giants GM. Word is the Minnesota Twins are showing a lot of interest; it's with sincere regret we opine that the best thing Will Smith can do for the Giants now is to bring a top-100 prospect in trade.

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