A Fine Mess

    Well, we may have arrived at the starting gate of our pennant-- er, wild-card-- race a few days too late. The Giants, who entered August at 61-49 and leading the wild-card race, have gone 9-18 since then and are now mired in a four-way tie for the last wild-card spot, well behind the Philadelphia Phillies and Chicago Cubs, who both heated up just as the Giants got cold. There are 25 games left to play; 19 of those are division games, including all of the final 16. There’s a stretch of ten games starting this coming Friday, against the Colorado Rockies and the Cleveland Guardians, who are a combined .425 this year. The Giants are 5-1 so far against the Rockies, and 3-0 at Coors Field, if that helps. They have two remaining at Arizona against the Diamondbacks, one of the teams with whom they’re currently tied. They have seven against the division-leading Dodgers, four of those in LA, and three at home against San Diego to kick off the season’s final week.

First it’s the Cubs at Wrigley Field, starting tonight. Chicago still has a chance to pass Philadelphia and lock up the home-field wild-card advantage, and they’re also only three and a half games out of first place in the NL Central. The Cubs spent the first half of the season mired deep in their division despite a strongly positive run differential, and we kept waiting for them to play up to it. They’re doing that now, even having shed some talent at the trade deadline. Kudos to manager David Ross, who was behind the plate when the Cubs broke their 108-year old jinx and won the World Series seven years ago.

Kudos for Gabe Kapler, upon whom they were lavished from this quarter a month ago, will have to wait a while. We believe “Kap” has generally done a fine job with his patchwork pitching staff; the Giants are 12^th in MLB in ERA despite a cascade of injuries to such as Anthony DeSclafani, Alex Wood, John Brebbia, and Ross Stripling, all of whom the team was counting on as the season began. The constant use of “openers” and reliance on “bullpen games” has been wearying to many fans, but Kapler really has had no choice in the matter. At the moment the starting rotation looks like Logan Webb, Alex Cobb, rookie Kyle Harrison, and either Jakob Junis or Tristan Beck, with the fifth spot reserved for the beloved and benighted “opener.” While Webb and Cobb have made many outstanding starts this year, they’ve also lately put up some clunkers, and at the moment we don’t know what we’ll get. Cobb, asked to help nail down a critical series split at San Diego yesterday, instead lasted only three innings.  What’s kept this staff stable is a fine bullpen, with the Rogers twins, Taylor and Tyler, taking lead roles in advance of closer Camilo Doval.

Kapler’s fine touch has not been evident in the lineup, and it may be, simply, that he doesn’t yet have the people he needs to score enough runs to make this team anything more than a pretender. The offseason acquisitions, Michael Conforto and Mitch Haniger, have largely disappointed. Conforto started out strong but has been invisible, and injured, lately; Haniger’s just been mostly injured. Brandon Crawford is an empty shell of 2021’s MVP candidate as he plays out the final year of his contract. LaMonte Wade (who has discovered the power of the base on balls as well as the home run), Thairo Estrada (who at one point led the league in batting average), Wilmer Flores (20 homers), Austin Slater, Mike Yastrzemski (lots of time on the IL), J.D. Davis (who’s also tailed off after a fine start), and the disappointing Joc Pederson make up the core of this offense, such as it is. There isn’t a “stud” hitter in the bunch-- and the rest are mostly rookies.

Yes, rookies. Lots of rookies. And standing tall above all the rookies is perhaps the team’s best player this year, rookie catcher Patrick Bailey. Called up to take over for slumping Joey Bart in May, Bailey started like a house afire, and the team responded with a ten-game winning streak and a 18-8 June. While his offensive numbers since have settled into normality, his defensive skill and his aptitude behind the plate have been a revelation. He’s the standard by which the other young players--  his catching mate Blake Sabol, Luis Matos, Casey Schmitt, Marco Luciano, Wade Meckler—have been measured. Sabol, Schmitt and Meckler remain on the current roster; Matos and Luciano both had their first taste of major-league ball over the late spring and summer and are currently in Sacramento while the Giants try to squeeze something from veterans such as Paul DeJong.  Expect the young guys to return this week.  

So… perspective. It appears at this point that what’s really happening here is the Giants are trying to field a contender while simultaneously rebuilding the team. To paraphrase an old saying, it’s not that it’s done especially well, it’s that it’s done at all.  They’re 70-67 as we write, and tied for a post-season berth with 25 games to play, with a team composed largely of part-timers and rookies.  Whether they make the postseason or not, has this team the mettle to stay in the race until the last out is made?

That’s why we’re here, isn’t it? So open the gate and let the nags run!

     

                               W     L GB

Philadelphia     75 61 16 games behind first-place Braves

Chicago             73 64 Saw this coming 2 months ago

GIANTS             70 67 Hold tiebreaker over Arizona

Arizona             70 67 Still think they're a year away

Cincinnati     71 68   Six and a half out of first place

Miami     70 67 6 games above expected record

Yesterday

Giants lost at San Diego, 4-0, losing three our of four in a critical series. 

Philadelphia, Chicago, and Miami won; Arizona and Cincinnati lost. Four teams are now tied for the third wild-card spot. . 

Today

Giants at Chicago to face the surging Cubs at Wrigley Field. Logan Webb tries to turn the tide against lefthander Justin Steele, who is having an outstanding year (15-3, 2.69). Surprisingly or not, the Giants are 24-15 against opposing southpaws this season.  

Yesterday's Game

No way does this team survive September scoring four runs over three games, or even 11 runs over 4 games, as the Giants did against San Diego this weekend. They were shut out on four hits yesterday by veteran Seth Lugo, who is having a good year but is hardly a Cy Young candidate like his teammate Blake Snell.  San Diego's season, which began with such promise, is in ruins, and they did a fine job playing spoiler. The Giants will see them again September 25-27 at Oracle Park, and the question here is whether there'll be anything left for the Padres to spoil by then.