Final National League West Standings
GIANTS 94-68 ... Cincinnati arrives
Saturday to kick it off.
Los Angeles 86-76 8 GB Last-week
hot streak fell just short.
Arizona 81-81 13 GB Never mounted a
serious challenge.
San Diego 76-86 18 GB Haven't
seen postseason play since 2006.
Colorado 64-98 30 GB They've been
rebuilding for what, 3 years?
Giants fans with a little bit of age on
'em may be feeling some trepidation right about now. Only three times
before has the team coasted into the postseason like this-- in 1987,
2000, and 2003-- and we all know how those campaigns turned
out, don't we? Still, it's hard not to like this ballclub as the
October festivities begin, even if we weren't hopelessly biased from
the start. The same sort of tough, underrated, git-'er-done players
(hello there, Hunter Pence and Marco Scutaro) we saw in 2010 (Pat
Burrell and Cody Ross come to mind) have become fixtures in a lineup
to which they didn't even belong a few months ago. A triumvirate of
outstanding starting pitchers ranks with any in the game, though one
of the names on the list has changed. And this year we have a guy
whose new nickname could only be "MVP", that being Buster
Posey, your new National League batting champion who also drove in
102 runs. Yes, there are some solid teams going into this postseason
derby-- the Atlanta Braves, in particular, have the look of a club in
the right place at the right time-- but we don't see a one who ought
to be rated a better-than-even shot to defeat Our Boys.
And so it will be Matt Cain opening the
division series at AT&T Park on Saturday night against the
Cincinnati Reds, who are managed by our old friend Johnnie B. Baker.
The Reds ran away with the Central division this year, led by a
quintet of pitchers that ranks with anybody's-- including the Giants.
Madison Bumgarner has been tabbed as the starter for Sunday's Game
Two, also at the 'Bell. Then it's off to Cincinnati for the rest of
the series, and our old friend Mat Latos awaits to start Game Three
for the Reds. Without risking too much strain, we'll give ourselves a
light pat on the back for predicting Latos' resurgence in
Cincinnati.
It'd be most helpful to face him with a
two-game edge already in place. We're unclear why the division series
format has been changed. Since 2000 the first two games have been
played in the higher-seeded team's ballpark, the next two (if
necessary) at the lower seed's home field, and if a Game Five was
needed, it was back to the higher seed's home. Now, things have
reverted to the 1995-1999 format, which actually gives early
advantage to the lower seed. The Giants themselves experienced this
in 1997, when they lost the first two at the wild-card Marlins' Miami
home, then were eliminated back at Candlestick. We doubt the
Cincinnati Reds consider this assignation much of a home-field
"advantage" given their better record, and of course we
hope the Giants can do to the Reds exactly as was done to them
fifteen years ago.
The Reds won the season series by 4-3
this year; they were 2-1 at the Great American Ballpark and earned a
split at the 'Bell. Johnny Cueto's lone appearance saw him outdone by
Bumgarner's one-hitter on June 28, while as mentioned earlier Latos
was superb in two starts. Though the Reds have one of the game's best
hitters in Joey (1.041 OPS) Votto, they are even more
pitching-dependent than the Giants, and their "ace" may
actually be closer Aroldis Chapman, with his 100-MPH heat and his 38
saves. Certainly Baker's fondness for giving lots of at-bats to
speedy players who can't hit hasn't cost his team a lot of wins--
yet-- but it has placed a lot more pressure on his pitchers.
Cincinnati was ninth in the league in runs scored, twelfth in runs
scored on the road. Center fielder Drew Stubbs, who struck out over
200 times last year while batting leadoff, cut his K's down to 166
and was indeed moved down in the lineup-- all the way to second,
where he managed a .277 OBP, almost as good as the man who replaced
him in the leadoff spot, Zack (.288 OBP) Cozart. With these two
gobbling up the most at-bats, Giants starters ought to be able to
avoid the big innings.
Unknowns at this point are the identity
of the Giants' Game Three starter, or the team's postseason
pitcher/player ratio. We always like to see 10 pitchers and three
catchers, but given Bruce Bochy's affection for the deep bullpen, the
best we can hope for is probably 11 pitchers instead of the dreaded
12. On the cusp may be Aubrey Huff, whose left-handed bat off the
bench could be valuable, but who at this point has almost no
defensive value. Ryan Theriot, Xavier Nady, and Joaquin Arias already
are assured of roster spots as backups, and Pablo Sandoval is likely
the emergency-catcher candidate behind Posey and Hector Sanchez. We'd
like to see both Huff and Emmanuel Burriss make the squad; that'd be
14 position players.
The inspired notion of adding a second
wild-card team, thus devaluing the wild-card berth by half as opposed
to the division title, means the top-seeded Washington Nationals
await the winner of today's one-game playoff between the Atlanta
Braves and the St Louis Cardinals. The Nats' amazing rise from
perennial losers to sudden winners under the tutelage of 70-year-old
Davey Johnson has been dampened a bit by their tepid September play,
which may or may not be related to management's controversial
decision to bench youthful ace Stephen Strasburg. Certainly the
combination of Strasburg's age, his tremendous potential, and his
recent Tommy John surgery made the choice a difficult one, but for
the first time in memory we are seeing a team concede its best chance
to win now in exchange for a future no one can predict. We
can't help but think this will cost them in the end, but for now
let's congratulate the Nationals, who have brought postseason
baseball to Washington fans for the first time since 1933. (Shall we
remind everybody who beat the Washington Senators in that '33 World
Series? Naaah.)
The mid-Atlantic area is abuzz with
baseball as never before, with the long-dormant Baltimore Orioles
also rising from the mat and rewarding their long-suffering fans with
the team's first postseason appearance since 1997. The O's almost
beat out the perennial New York Yankees for the AL East pennant; the
Bombers clinched it on the last day of the season. Baltimore thus
faces the Texas Rangers, on the road, for a one-game chance to
advance. While it's great to see both Washington and Baltimore in the
postseason for the first time ever, we doubt either will make it to
the World Series.
A similar buzz permeates the Bay Area,
where the Oakland A's concluded a fantastic stretch drive by first
catching, and then beating, the two-time AL West defending champion
Rangers for the pennant. The darkest of dark horses in this playoff
derby, Oakland will play the Detroit Tigers who, in similar manner
but with considerably less national fanfare, caught and then passed
the Chicago White Sox over the final weeks for AL Central flag. To
keep it in perspective, the A's and Giants both qualified for October ball in 1971, 1989 (when they
met in that forgettable World Series), 2000, and 2003, so it's not
quite as big a kick as the D.C./Baltimore two-step.
Roll the statistical parade... Giants
finished fifth in the league in runs scored, and first in runs
scored in away games. Since Hunter Pence and Marco Scutaro came
aboard, they've averaged 5.2 per game... Their 718 runs scored is a
25% increase over last year's league-lowest total.... The "Woild
Cham-peens" of 2010 had a NL-best 3.36 team ERA, this year's
model sits at 3.68. Postseason qualifiers Washington, Atlanta, and
Cincinnati all rank higher, with St Louis just behind... The
aforementioned Aroldis Chapman has struck out 122 in 72 innings while
walking 23! That's gotta be worth some Cy Young votes... Washington's
Gio Gonzalez won 21 games, with R.A. Dickey winning 20. Cueto, St
Louis' Lance Lynn, and Philly's Cole Hamels also won more than Cain
and Bumgarner's 16... Nobody set the world on fire with a
sub-2 ERA; Clayton Kershaw was best at 2.53, but Cain's 2.79 is right
there... Cain and Bumgarner were 8-9 in strikeouts; tenth, despite
his struggles, was Tim Lincecum. He was also second in most walks
allowed with 90; the next Giant, Barry Zito, is well down the
list.... Santiago Casilla is tenth in saves, despite fewer
opportunities than his competitors... Along with his batting title,
Buster Posey is fourth in slugging, second in OPS, sixth in RBI...
Votto is off the charts in OBP with .474; though he missed 50 games,
he still drew 94 walks... Angel Pagan's team-leading 95 runs rank
seventh in the league; Jimmie Rollins managed to score 102 despite a
.316 OBP, and there's a hint of Philadelphia's problems right
there... Pagan led the league in triples with 15, but missed
double-digits in all three extra-base categories. Five made it,
including Melky Cabrera, who needed only 113 games to pull it off
before his suspension... Marco Scutaro finished at .306, seventh in
the league. He hit .362 with the Giants. We love this guy, though we
wish he'd walk more... Though he hit 32 homers and the Cardinals made
the postseason, Carlos Beltran did not have a good year by his
standards. His OBP is barely north of Angel Pagan's... Pablo Sandoval
finished at .283, though he drew more walks than ever before, which
kept his OBP at .347... Memo to Clint Hurdle, manager of the
Pittsburgh Pirates: Keep Andrew McCutchen and Jose Tabata at first
base. Together, they stole 28 bases and were caught 24 times, which
is significantly worse than just staying put... . The Giants finished
seventh in walks and second in fewest strikeouts, a dramatic
departure from recent history... The Giants also finished in the
middle of the pack defensively; slightly below average in errors,
slightly above average in range, exactly eighth in
defensive-efficiency rating (DER)... Brandon Crawford was third in
range among shortstops and fifth in errors, which is about right, and
which proves Bochy's wisdom leaving him in there despite his poor
stats back in May.
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